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Estimating the transmissibility of hand, foot, and mouth disease by a dynamic model.
Public Health 2019; 174:42-48PH

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a serious public health issue in many countries; however, its transmissibility in county-level outbreaks remains unclear. The aim of this study is to estimate the transmissibility of HFMD epidemics on both city level and county level, for a better understanding of the transmission dynamics of HFMD epidemics.

STUDY DESIGN

Simulation based on data obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention.

METHODS

The weekly number of reported HFMD cases from April 2009 to December 2017 in nine regions of Changsha City was collected. A susceptible-infectious-recovered model was used to estimate the transmissibility of HFMD. The reproduction number of reported cases during the ascending (denoted as Rasc) and descending (denoted as Rdes) period was used to describe the transmissibility of HFMD.

RESULTS

The Rasc and Rdes for HFMD in Changsha was 1.44 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.41-1.48) and 0.71 (95% CI: 0.69-0.73), respectively. There was no statistical significance of Rasc values among nine regions (F = 1.056, P = 0.396), nor of Rdes values among nine regions (F = 1.676, P = 0.106). The average Rasc (1.53, 95% CI: 1.46-1.61) from 2009 to 2012 was higher than the one (1.37, 95% CI: 1.34-1.40) from 2013 to 2017 (t = 3.974, P < 0.001), but the average Rdes (0.67, 95% CI: 0.63-0.70) from 2009 to 2012 was lower than the one (0.74, 95% CI: 0.73-0.76) from 2013 to 2017 (t = -3.751, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The epidemic of HFMD in Changsha City is still grim, and integrated strategies should be taken for controlling and preventing HFMD.

Authors+Show Affiliations

College of Systems Engineering, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, Hunan, People's Republic of China; Changsha Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, Hunan Province, People's Republic of China.Changsha Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, Hunan Province, People's Republic of China.Changsha Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, Hunan Province, People's Republic of China.Changsha Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, Hunan Province, People's Republic of China.College of Systems Engineering, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, Hunan, People's Republic of China. Electronic address: Kayyang27@163.com.State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian Province, People's Republic of China. Electronic address: 13698665@qq.com.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

31306888

Citation

Chen, Shuilian, et al. "Estimating the Transmissibility of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease By a Dynamic Model." Public Health, vol. 174, 2019, pp. 42-48.
Chen S, Yang D, Liu R, et al. Estimating the transmissibility of hand, foot, and mouth disease by a dynamic model. Public Health. 2019;174:42-48.
Chen, S., Yang, D., Liu, R., Zhao, J., Yang, K., & Chen, T. (2019). Estimating the transmissibility of hand, foot, and mouth disease by a dynamic model. Public Health, 174, pp. 42-48. doi:10.1016/j.puhe.2019.05.032.
Chen S, et al. Estimating the Transmissibility of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease By a Dynamic Model. Public Health. 2019 Jul 12;174:42-48. PubMed PMID: 31306888.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Estimating the transmissibility of hand, foot, and mouth disease by a dynamic model. AU - Chen,Shuilian, AU - Yang,Dong, AU - Liu,Ruchun, AU - Zhao,Jin, AU - Yang,Kewei, AU - Chen,Tianmu, Y1 - 2019/07/12/ PY - 2018/11/16/received PY - 2019/05/14/revised PY - 2019/05/24/accepted PY - 2019/7/16/pubmed PY - 2019/7/16/medline PY - 2019/7/16/entrez KW - Hand, foot, and mouth disease KW - Mathematical model KW - Reproduction number KW - Transmissibility SP - 42 EP - 48 JF - Public health JO - Public Health VL - 174 N2 - OBJECTIVE: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a serious public health issue in many countries; however, its transmissibility in county-level outbreaks remains unclear. The aim of this study is to estimate the transmissibility of HFMD epidemics on both city level and county level, for a better understanding of the transmission dynamics of HFMD epidemics. STUDY DESIGN: Simulation based on data obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. METHODS: The weekly number of reported HFMD cases from April 2009 to December 2017 in nine regions of Changsha City was collected. A susceptible-infectious-recovered model was used to estimate the transmissibility of HFMD. The reproduction number of reported cases during the ascending (denoted as Rasc) and descending (denoted as Rdes) period was used to describe the transmissibility of HFMD. RESULTS: The Rasc and Rdes for HFMD in Changsha was 1.44 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.41-1.48) and 0.71 (95% CI: 0.69-0.73), respectively. There was no statistical significance of Rasc values among nine regions (F = 1.056, P = 0.396), nor of Rdes values among nine regions (F = 1.676, P = 0.106). The average Rasc (1.53, 95% CI: 1.46-1.61) from 2009 to 2012 was higher than the one (1.37, 95% CI: 1.34-1.40) from 2013 to 2017 (t = 3.974, P < 0.001), but the average Rdes (0.67, 95% CI: 0.63-0.70) from 2009 to 2012 was lower than the one (0.74, 95% CI: 0.73-0.76) from 2013 to 2017 (t = -3.751, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The epidemic of HFMD in Changsha City is still grim, and integrated strategies should be taken for controlling and preventing HFMD. SN - 1476-5616 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/31306888/Estimating_the_transmissibility_of_hand,_foot,_and_mouth_disease_by_a_dynamic_model L2 - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0033-3506(19)30185-4 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -