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Admission Laboratory Values Accurately Predict In-hospital Mortality: a Retrospective Cohort Study.

Abstract

BACKGROUND

The greater the severity of illness of a patient, the more likely the patient will have a poor hospital outcome. However, hospital-wide severity of illness scores that are simple, widely available, and not diagnosis-specific are still needed. Laboratory tests could potentially be used as an alternative to estimate severity of illness.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the ability of hospital laboratory tests, as measures of severity of illness, to predict in-hospital mortality among hospitalized patients, and therefore, their potential as an alternative method to severity of illness risk adjustment.

DESIGNS AND PATIENTS

A retrospective cohort study among 38,367 adult non-trauma patients admitted to the University of Maryland Medical Center between November 2015 and November 2017 was performed. Laboratory tests (hemoglobin, platelet count, white blood cell count, urea nitrogen, creatinine, glucose, sodium, potassium, and total bicarbonate (HCO3)) were included when ordered within 24 h from the time of hospital admission. A multivariable logistic regression model to predict in-hospital mortality was constructed using a section of our cohort (n = 21,003).

MAIN MEASURES

Model performance was evaluated using the c-statistic and the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) test. In addition, a calibration belt was constructed to determine a confidence interval around the calibration curve with the purpose of identifying ranges of miscalibration.

KEY RESULTS

Patient age and all laboratory tests predicted mortality with good discrimination (c = 0.79). Patients with abnormal HCO3 levels or leukocyte counts at admission were twice as likely to die during their hospital stay as patients with normal results. A good model calibration and fit were observed (HL = 13.9, p = 0.18).

CONCLUSIONS

Admission laboratory tests are able to predict in-hospital mortality with good accuracy, providing an objective and widely accessible approach to severity of illness risk adjustment.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA. nblanco@som.umaryland.edu.Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.Department of Pediatrics, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

31432440

Citation

Blanco, N, et al. "Admission Laboratory Values Accurately Predict In-hospital Mortality: a Retrospective Cohort Study." Journal of General Internal Medicine, 2019.
Blanco N, Leekha S, Magder L, et al. Admission Laboratory Values Accurately Predict In-hospital Mortality: a Retrospective Cohort Study. J Gen Intern Med. 2019.
Blanco, N., Leekha, S., Magder, L., Jackson, S. S., Tamma, P. D., Lemkin, D., & Harris, A. D. (2019). Admission Laboratory Values Accurately Predict In-hospital Mortality: a Retrospective Cohort Study. Journal of General Internal Medicine, doi:10.1007/s11606-019-05282-2.
Blanco N, et al. Admission Laboratory Values Accurately Predict In-hospital Mortality: a Retrospective Cohort Study. J Gen Intern Med. 2019 Aug 20; PubMed PMID: 31432440.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Admission Laboratory Values Accurately Predict In-hospital Mortality: a Retrospective Cohort Study. AU - Blanco,N, AU - Leekha,S, AU - Magder,L, AU - Jackson,S S, AU - Tamma,P D, AU - Lemkin,D, AU - Harris,A D, Y1 - 2019/08/20/ PY - 2018/10/18/received PY - 2019/07/29/accepted PY - 2019/03/26/revised PY - 2019/8/22/entrez KW - laboratory tests KW - mortality KW - prediction model KW - severity of illness JF - Journal of general internal medicine JO - J Gen Intern Med N2 - BACKGROUND: The greater the severity of illness of a patient, the more likely the patient will have a poor hospital outcome. However, hospital-wide severity of illness scores that are simple, widely available, and not diagnosis-specific are still needed. Laboratory tests could potentially be used as an alternative to estimate severity of illness. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the ability of hospital laboratory tests, as measures of severity of illness, to predict in-hospital mortality among hospitalized patients, and therefore, their potential as an alternative method to severity of illness risk adjustment. DESIGNS AND PATIENTS: A retrospective cohort study among 38,367 adult non-trauma patients admitted to the University of Maryland Medical Center between November 2015 and November 2017 was performed. Laboratory tests (hemoglobin, platelet count, white blood cell count, urea nitrogen, creatinine, glucose, sodium, potassium, and total bicarbonate (HCO3)) were included when ordered within 24 h from the time of hospital admission. A multivariable logistic regression model to predict in-hospital mortality was constructed using a section of our cohort (n = 21,003). MAIN MEASURES: Model performance was evaluated using the c-statistic and the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) test. In addition, a calibration belt was constructed to determine a confidence interval around the calibration curve with the purpose of identifying ranges of miscalibration. KEY RESULTS: Patient age and all laboratory tests predicted mortality with good discrimination (c = 0.79). Patients with abnormal HCO3 levels or leukocyte counts at admission were twice as likely to die during their hospital stay as patients with normal results. A good model calibration and fit were observed (HL = 13.9, p = 0.18). CONCLUSIONS: Admission laboratory tests are able to predict in-hospital mortality with good accuracy, providing an objective and widely accessible approach to severity of illness risk adjustment. SN - 1525-1497 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/31432440/Admission_Laboratory_Values_Accurately_Predict_In-hospital_Mortality:_a_Retrospective_Cohort_Study L2 - https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11606-019-05282-2 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -