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Validating the European randomised study for screening of prostate cancer (ERSPC) risk calculator in a contemporary South African cohort.

Abstract

INTRODUCTION

Numerous prostate cancer predictive tools have been developed to help with decision-making in men needing prostate biopsy. However, they have been modelled and validated almost exclusively in Caucasian cohorts, hence limiting their use in other population groups. The aim of this study was to assess the validity of the ERSPC risk calculator in a South African cohort.

METHODS

Patients who have had a transrectal ultrasound (TRUS)-guided prostate biopsy at Groote Schuur Hospital from January 2008 to August 2017 were reviewed. Predictor variables were entered into the ERSPC risk calculator and results were compared with prostate biopsy pathology results. Predictive accuracy of the ERSPC risk calculator for these patients was derived using receiver operator characteristics (ROC) Area under the curve and is expressed as a percentage.

RESULTS

516 prostate biopsy sessions in 475 different men were analysed. The predictive accuracy of the ERSPC risk calculator was better than a PSA/DRE strategy for the presence of cancer-0.738 (95% CI 0.695-0.781) vs 0.686 (95% CI 0.639-0.732), and for significant PCa-0.833 (95% CI 0.789-0.876) vs 0.793 (95% CI 0.741-0.846). This translated into 50 less biopsies when compared to a PSA > 4/abnormal DRE strategy. Use of the ERSPC RC would have missed eight non-significant cancers [Significant cancer being defined as having a tumour stage T2b (> 1/2 lobe involved with prostate cancer) and/or a Gleason Score equal to or greater than 7].

CONCLUSION

Our results confirm the validity of the ERSPC RC in a South African cohort. Application of this calculator to the wider South African population would allow better selection of patients for prostate biopsy and spare a significant number its adverse consequences.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Division of Urology, Groote Schuur Hospital, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.St Georges University Hospital, London, UK.Division of Urology, Groote Schuur Hospital, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.The Numeracy Centre, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.Division of Urology, Groote Schuur Hospital, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa. j.lazarus@uct.ac.za.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

31522234

Citation

Kowlessur, Bhavish, et al. "Validating the European Randomised Study for Screening of Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) Risk Calculator in a Contemporary South African Cohort." World Journal of Urology, 2019.
Kowlessur B, Phull M, Patel B, et al. Validating the European randomised study for screening of prostate cancer (ERSPC) risk calculator in a contemporary South African cohort. World J Urol. 2019.
Kowlessur, B., Phull, M., Patel, B., Henry, M., & Lazarus, J. (2019). Validating the European randomised study for screening of prostate cancer (ERSPC) risk calculator in a contemporary South African cohort. World Journal of Urology, doi:10.1007/s00345-019-02947-9.
Kowlessur B, et al. Validating the European Randomised Study for Screening of Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) Risk Calculator in a Contemporary South African Cohort. World J Urol. 2019 Sep 14; PubMed PMID: 31522234.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Validating the European randomised study for screening of prostate cancer (ERSPC) risk calculator in a contemporary South African cohort. AU - Kowlessur,Bhavish, AU - Phull,Manraj, AU - Patel,Bhavin, AU - Henry,Michelle, AU - Lazarus,John, Y1 - 2019/09/14/ PY - 2019/06/21/received PY - 2019/09/03/accepted PY - 2019/9/16/entrez PY - 2019/9/16/pubmed PY - 2019/9/16/medline KW - Prognosis KW - Prostate cancer KW - Risk calculator JF - World journal of urology JO - World J Urol N2 - INTRODUCTION: Numerous prostate cancer predictive tools have been developed to help with decision-making in men needing prostate biopsy. However, they have been modelled and validated almost exclusively in Caucasian cohorts, hence limiting their use in other population groups. The aim of this study was to assess the validity of the ERSPC risk calculator in a South African cohort. METHODS: Patients who have had a transrectal ultrasound (TRUS)-guided prostate biopsy at Groote Schuur Hospital from January 2008 to August 2017 were reviewed. Predictor variables were entered into the ERSPC risk calculator and results were compared with prostate biopsy pathology results. Predictive accuracy of the ERSPC risk calculator for these patients was derived using receiver operator characteristics (ROC) Area under the curve and is expressed as a percentage. RESULTS: 516 prostate biopsy sessions in 475 different men were analysed. The predictive accuracy of the ERSPC risk calculator was better than a PSA/DRE strategy for the presence of cancer-0.738 (95% CI 0.695-0.781) vs 0.686 (95% CI 0.639-0.732), and for significant PCa-0.833 (95% CI 0.789-0.876) vs 0.793 (95% CI 0.741-0.846). This translated into 50 less biopsies when compared to a PSA > 4/abnormal DRE strategy. Use of the ERSPC RC would have missed eight non-significant cancers [Significant cancer being defined as having a tumour stage T2b (> 1/2 lobe involved with prostate cancer) and/or a Gleason Score equal to or greater than 7]. CONCLUSION: Our results confirm the validity of the ERSPC RC in a South African cohort. Application of this calculator to the wider South African population would allow better selection of patients for prostate biopsy and spare a significant number its adverse consequences. SN - 1433-8726 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/31522234/Validating_the_European_randomised_study_for_screening_of_prostate_cancer_(ERSPC)_risk_calculator_in_a_contemporary_South_African_cohort L2 - https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00345-019-02947-9 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -