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The Structure and Parameterization of the Breast Cancer Transition Model Among Chinese Women.
Value Health Reg Issues 2019; 21:29-38VH

Abstract

OBJECTIVES

Markov model simulation based on the natural history of disease is commonly employed for the comparative research of health interventions. The present study aims to simulate the natural progression of breast cancer and parameterize the initial and transition probabilities of multiple states of breast cancer development among Chinese women.

METHODS

The age-specific incidence, mortality, and clinical stage distribution of breast cancer; and relapse rate of each clinical stage were collected from China's cancer registry yearbooks and clinical epidemiological studies to simulate the process from full health to breast cancer to death among Chinese women aged 30 to 80 through a Markov cohort study. The validity analysis was conducted to evaluate the accuracy of the model estimation.

RESULTS

A Markov transition model with 7 states (no breast cancer, clinical stages 0-IV breast cancer, and death) was constructed for Chinese women. The age-specific incidence, mortality, and clinical stage distribution of breast cancer estimated by the initial and transition probabilities among different Markov states were highly consistent with the registered data and observed studies.

CONCLUSION

A breast cancer transition model for Chinese women has been established with validity. It could be a point of reference for further economic evaluations and breast cancer screening policy formulation.

Authors+Show Affiliations

School of Public Health, Kunming Medical University, Kunming, Yunnan, China; West China School of Public Health, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.West China School of Public Health, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China; Sichuan Maternity and Child Care Hospital, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.West China School of Public Health, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China. Electronic address: lijiayuan@scu.edu.cn.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

31634794

Citation

Huang, Yuan, et al. "The Structure and Parameterization of the Breast Cancer Transition Model Among Chinese Women." Value in Health Regional Issues, vol. 21, 2019, pp. 29-38.
Huang Y, Li Q, Torres-Rueda S, et al. The Structure and Parameterization of the Breast Cancer Transition Model Among Chinese Women. Value Health Reg Issues. 2019;21:29-38.
Huang, Y., Li, Q., Torres-Rueda, S., & Li, J. (2019). The Structure and Parameterization of the Breast Cancer Transition Model Among Chinese Women. Value in Health Regional Issues, 21, pp. 29-38. doi:10.1016/j.vhri.2019.05.003.
Huang Y, et al. The Structure and Parameterization of the Breast Cancer Transition Model Among Chinese Women. Value Health Reg Issues. 2019 Oct 18;21:29-38. PubMed PMID: 31634794.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - The Structure and Parameterization of the Breast Cancer Transition Model Among Chinese Women. AU - Huang,Yuan, AU - Li,Qin, AU - Torres-Rueda,Sergio, AU - Li,Jiayuan, Y1 - 2019/10/18/ PY - 2018/11/13/received PY - 2019/05/29/accepted PY - 2019/10/22/pubmed PY - 2019/10/22/medline PY - 2019/10/22/entrez KW - Markov model KW - breast cancer KW - disease transition model KW - transition probability KW - validity analysis SP - 29 EP - 38 JF - Value in health regional issues JO - Value Health Reg Issues VL - 21 N2 - OBJECTIVES: Markov model simulation based on the natural history of disease is commonly employed for the comparative research of health interventions. The present study aims to simulate the natural progression of breast cancer and parameterize the initial and transition probabilities of multiple states of breast cancer development among Chinese women. METHODS: The age-specific incidence, mortality, and clinical stage distribution of breast cancer; and relapse rate of each clinical stage were collected from China's cancer registry yearbooks and clinical epidemiological studies to simulate the process from full health to breast cancer to death among Chinese women aged 30 to 80 through a Markov cohort study. The validity analysis was conducted to evaluate the accuracy of the model estimation. RESULTS: A Markov transition model with 7 states (no breast cancer, clinical stages 0-IV breast cancer, and death) was constructed for Chinese women. The age-specific incidence, mortality, and clinical stage distribution of breast cancer estimated by the initial and transition probabilities among different Markov states were highly consistent with the registered data and observed studies. CONCLUSION: A breast cancer transition model for Chinese women has been established with validity. It could be a point of reference for further economic evaluations and breast cancer screening policy formulation. SN - 2212-1102 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/31634794/The_Structure_and_Parameterization_of_the_Breast_Cancer_Transition_Model_Among_Chinese_Women L2 - http://RD3FS2PT9J.search.serialssolutions.com/openurl?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&res_dat=xri:pqm&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&genre=article&issn=2212-1099&eissn=2212-1102&volume=21&issue=&spage=29&date=2019 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -