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Forecast of the trend in incidence of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis in China from 2011-2019 using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and Exponential Smoothing (ETS) models.
J Infect Public Health. 2020 Feb; 13(2):287-294.JI

Abstract

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to explore the demographic and distributive features of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC). We constructed seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and exponential smoothing (ETS) models to predict its trend in incidence in mainland China and provided evidence for the government to formulate policies regarding AHC prevention.

METHODS

Data regarding the distribution and demographic characteristics of AHC in China from 2011-2016 were retrieved from the Public Health Scientific Data website. Monthly AHC data from January 2011 to June 2019 were used to establish and evaluate the SARIMA and ETS models.

RESULTS

During 2011-2016, a total of 213,325 cases were reported; 46.01% were farmers, patients aged ≤9 years had the highest risk, and the male:female ratio was 1.31:1. Guangxi and Guangdong had the highest number of reported AHC cases. The SARIMA (0, 0, 1) (2, 0, 0) 12 model with the minimum root mean squared error and mean absolute percentage error were finally selected for in-sample simulation.

CONCLUSIONS

AHC remains a serious public health problem in Southern and Eastern China that mainly affects farmers and children younger than 9 years. It is recommended that the health administration strengthen the publicity and education regarding AHC prevention among farmers and accelerate the development of related vaccines and treatment measures.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Department of Social Medicine, Health Management College, Harbin Medical University, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, China.Department of Social Medicine, Health Management College, Harbin Medical University, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, China.Department of Social Medicine, Health Management College, Harbin Medical University, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, China.Department of Social Medicine, Health Management College, Harbin Medical University, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, China.Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Tumor Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, China.Department of Social Medicine, Health Management College, Harbin Medical University, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, China.Department of Social Medicine, Health Management College, Harbin Medical University, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, China.Department of Social Medicine, Health Management College, Harbin Medical University, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, China.Department of Social Medicine, Health Management College, Harbin Medical University, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, China.Department of Social Medicine, Health Management College, Harbin Medical University, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, China. Electronic address: wuqunhong@163.com.Department of Social Medicine, Health Management College, Harbin Medical University, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, China. Electronic address: minglijiao@126.com.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

31953020

Citation

Liu, Huan, et al. "Forecast of the Trend in Incidence of Acute Hemorrhagic Conjunctivitis in China From 2011-2019 Using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and Exponential Smoothing (ETS) Models." Journal of Infection and Public Health, vol. 13, no. 2, 2020, pp. 287-294.
Liu H, Li C, Shao Y, et al. Forecast of the trend in incidence of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis in China from 2011-2019 using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and Exponential Smoothing (ETS) models. J Infect Public Health. 2020;13(2):287-294.
Liu, H., Li, C., Shao, Y., Zhang, X., Zhai, Z., Wang, X., Qi, X., Wang, J., Hao, Y., Wu, Q., & Jiao, M. (2020). Forecast of the trend in incidence of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis in China from 2011-2019 using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and Exponential Smoothing (ETS) models. Journal of Infection and Public Health, 13(2), 287-294. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jiph.2019.12.008
Liu H, et al. Forecast of the Trend in Incidence of Acute Hemorrhagic Conjunctivitis in China From 2011-2019 Using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and Exponential Smoothing (ETS) Models. J Infect Public Health. 2020;13(2):287-294. PubMed PMID: 31953020.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Forecast of the trend in incidence of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis in China from 2011-2019 using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and Exponential Smoothing (ETS) models. AU - Liu,Huan, AU - Li,Chenxi, AU - Shao,Yingqi, AU - Zhang,Xin, AU - Zhai,Zhao, AU - Wang,Xing, AU - Qi,Xinye, AU - Wang,Jiahui, AU - Hao,Yanhua, AU - Wu,Qunhong, AU - Jiao,Mingli, Y1 - 2020/01/14/ PY - 2019/11/09/received PY - 2019/12/11/revised PY - 2019/12/17/accepted PY - 2020/1/19/pubmed PY - 2020/10/2/medline PY - 2020/1/19/entrez KW - Acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis KW - China KW - Exponential smoothing model KW - Forecasting KW - Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model KW - Time series analysis SP - 287 EP - 294 JF - Journal of infection and public health JO - J Infect Public Health VL - 13 IS - 2 N2 - BACKGROUND: This study aimed to explore the demographic and distributive features of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC). We constructed seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and exponential smoothing (ETS) models to predict its trend in incidence in mainland China and provided evidence for the government to formulate policies regarding AHC prevention. METHODS: Data regarding the distribution and demographic characteristics of AHC in China from 2011-2016 were retrieved from the Public Health Scientific Data website. Monthly AHC data from January 2011 to June 2019 were used to establish and evaluate the SARIMA and ETS models. RESULTS: During 2011-2016, a total of 213,325 cases were reported; 46.01% were farmers, patients aged ≤9 years had the highest risk, and the male:female ratio was 1.31:1. Guangxi and Guangdong had the highest number of reported AHC cases. The SARIMA (0, 0, 1) (2, 0, 0) 12 model with the minimum root mean squared error and mean absolute percentage error were finally selected for in-sample simulation. CONCLUSIONS: AHC remains a serious public health problem in Southern and Eastern China that mainly affects farmers and children younger than 9 years. It is recommended that the health administration strengthen the publicity and education regarding AHC prevention among farmers and accelerate the development of related vaccines and treatment measures. SN - 1876-035X UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/31953020/Forecast_of_the_trend_in_incidence_of_acute_hemorrhagic_conjunctivitis_in_China_from_2011_2019_using_the_Seasonal_Autoregressive_Integrated_Moving_Average__SARIMA__and_Exponential_Smoothing__ETS__models_ L2 - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1876-0341(19)30389-2 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -