Tags

Type your tag names separated by a space and hit enter

[Risk assessment of exported risk of COVID-19 from Hubei Province].
Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi. 2020 Apr 06; 54(4):362-366.ZY

Abstract

Objective:

To evaluate the exported risk of COVID-19 from Hubei Province and the imported risk in various provinces across China.

Methods:

Data of reported COVID-19 cases and Baidu Migration Indexin all provinces of the country as of February 14, 2020 were collected. The correlation analysis between cumulative number of reported cases and the migration index from Hubei was performed, and the imported risks from Hubei to different provinces across China were further evaluated.

Results:

A total of 49 970 confirmed cases were reported nationwide, of which 37 884 were in Hubei Province. The average daily migration index from Hubei to other provinces was 312.09, Wuhan and other cities in Hubei were 117.95 and 194.16, respectively. The cumulative COVID-19 cases of provinces was positively correlated with the migration index derived from Hubei Province, also in Wuhan and other cities in Hubei, with correlation coefficients of 0.84, 0.84, and 0.81. In linear model, population migration from Hubei Province, Wuhan and other cities in Hubei account for 71.2%, 70.1%, and 66.3% of the variation, respectively. The period of high exported risk from Hubei occurred before January 27, of which the risks before January 23 mainly came from Wuhan, and then mainly from other cities in Hubei. Hunan Province, Henan Province and Guangdong Province ranked the top three in terms of cumulative imported risk (the cumulative risk indices were 58.61, 54.75 and 49.62 respectively).

Conclusion:

The epidemic in each province was mainly caused by the importation of Hubei Province. Taking measures such as restricting the migration of population in Hubei Province and strengthening quarantine measures for immigrants from Hubei Province may greatly reduce the risk of continued spread of the epidemic.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

chi

PubMed ID

32083409

Citation

Hu, J X., et al. "[Risk Assessment of Exported Risk of COVID-19 From Hubei Province]." Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi [Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine], vol. 54, no. 4, 2020, pp. 362-366.
Hu JX, He GH, Liu T, et al. [Risk assessment of exported risk of COVID-19 from Hubei Province]. Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi. 2020;54(4):362-366.
Hu, J. X., He, G. H., Liu, T., Xiao, J. P., Rong, Z. H., Guo, L. C., Zeng, W. L., Zhu, Z. H., Gong, D. X., Yin, L. H., Wan, D. H., Zeng, L. L., & Ma, W. J. (2020). [Risk assessment of exported risk of COVID-19 from Hubei Province]. Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi [Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine], 54(4), 362-366. https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20200219-00142
Hu JX, et al. [Risk Assessment of Exported Risk of COVID-19 From Hubei Province]. Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi. 2020 Apr 6;54(4):362-366. PubMed PMID: 32083409.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - [Risk assessment of exported risk of COVID-19 from Hubei Province]. AU - Hu,J X, AU - He,G H, AU - Liu,T, AU - Xiao,J P, AU - Rong,Z H, AU - Guo,L C, AU - Zeng,W L, AU - Zhu,Z H, AU - Gong,D X, AU - Yin,L H, AU - Wan,D H, AU - Zeng,L L, AU - Ma,W J, PY - 2020/2/23/pubmed PY - 2020/5/14/medline PY - 2020/2/22/entrez KW - COVID-19 KW - Population migration KW - Risk assessment SP - 362 EP - 366 JF - Zhonghua yu fang yi xue za zhi [Chinese journal of preventive medicine] JO - Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi VL - 54 IS - 4 N2 - Objective: To evaluate the exported risk of COVID-19 from Hubei Province and the imported risk in various provinces across China. Methods: Data of reported COVID-19 cases and Baidu Migration Indexin all provinces of the country as of February 14, 2020 were collected. The correlation analysis between cumulative number of reported cases and the migration index from Hubei was performed, and the imported risks from Hubei to different provinces across China were further evaluated. Results: A total of 49 970 confirmed cases were reported nationwide, of which 37 884 were in Hubei Province. The average daily migration index from Hubei to other provinces was 312.09, Wuhan and other cities in Hubei were 117.95 and 194.16, respectively. The cumulative COVID-19 cases of provinces was positively correlated with the migration index derived from Hubei Province, also in Wuhan and other cities in Hubei, with correlation coefficients of 0.84, 0.84, and 0.81. In linear model, population migration from Hubei Province, Wuhan and other cities in Hubei account for 71.2%, 70.1%, and 66.3% of the variation, respectively. The period of high exported risk from Hubei occurred before January 27, of which the risks before January 23 mainly came from Wuhan, and then mainly from other cities in Hubei. Hunan Province, Henan Province and Guangdong Province ranked the top three in terms of cumulative imported risk (the cumulative risk indices were 58.61, 54.75 and 49.62 respectively). Conclusion: The epidemic in each province was mainly caused by the importation of Hubei Province. Taking measures such as restricting the migration of population in Hubei Province and strengthening quarantine measures for immigrants from Hubei Province may greatly reduce the risk of continued spread of the epidemic. SN - 0253-9624 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32083409/[Risk_assessment_of_exported_risk_of_COVID_19_from_Hubei_Province]_ L2 - http://journal.yiigle.com/LinkIn.do?linkin_type=pubmed&DOI=10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20200219-00142 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -