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Estimation of the reproductive number of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the probable outbreak size on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: A data-driven analysis.
Int J Infect Dis. 2020 Apr; 93:201-204.IJ

Abstract

BACKGROUNDS

Up to February 16, 2020, 355 cases have been confirmed as having COVID-19 infection on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. It is of crucial importance to estimate the reproductive number (R0) of the novel virus in the early stage of outbreak and make a prediction of daily new cases on the ship.

METHOD

We fitted the reported serial interval (mean and standard deviation) with a gamma distribution and applied "earlyR" package in R to estimate the R0 in the early stage of COVID-19 outbreak. We applied "projections" package in R to simulate the plausible cumulative epidemic trajectories and future daily incidence by fitting the data of existing daily incidence, a serial interval distribution, and the estimated R0 into a model based on the assumption that daily incidence obeys approximately Poisson distribution determined by daily infectiousness.

RESULTS

The Maximum-Likelihood (ML) value of R0 was 2.28 for COVID-19 outbreak at the early stage on the ship. The median with 95% confidence interval (CI) of R0 values was 2.28 (2.06-2.52) estimated by the bootstrap resampling method. The probable number of new cases for the next ten days would gradually increase, and the estimated cumulative cases would reach 1514 (1384-1656) at the tenth day in the future. However, if R0 value was reduced by 25% and 50%, the estimated total number of cumulative cases would be reduced to 1081 (981-1177) and 758 (697-817), respectively.

CONCLUSION

The median with 95% CI of R0 of COVID-19 was about 2.28 (2.06-2.52) during the early stage experienced on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. The future daily incidence and probable outbreak size is largely dependent on the change of R0. Unless strict infection management and control are taken, our findings indicate the potential of COVID-19 to cause greater outbreak on the ship.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Department of Critical Care Medicine, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China.Department of Critical Care Medicine, Affiliated Hangzhou First People's Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310006, China.Graduate School, Naval Medical University (Second Military Medical University), Shanghai 200433, China.Graduate School, Naval Medical University (Second Military Medical University), Shanghai 200433, China.Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Changzheng Hospital, Naval Medical University (Second Military Medical University), Shanghai 200433, China. Electronic address: linzhaofen@hotmail.com.Department of Critical Care Medicine, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China. Electronic address: chendechangsh@hotmail.com.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32097725

Citation

Zhang, Sheng, et al. "Estimation of the Reproductive Number of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) and the Probable Outbreak Size On the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship: a Data-driven Analysis." International Journal of Infectious Diseases : IJID : Official Publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases, vol. 93, 2020, pp. 201-204.
Zhang S, Diao M, Yu W, et al. Estimation of the reproductive number of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the probable outbreak size on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: A data-driven analysis. Int J Infect Dis. 2020;93:201-204.
Zhang, S., Diao, M., Yu, W., Pei, L., Lin, Z., & Chen, D. (2020). Estimation of the reproductive number of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the probable outbreak size on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: A data-driven analysis. International Journal of Infectious Diseases : IJID : Official Publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases, 93, 201-204. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.033
Zhang S, et al. Estimation of the Reproductive Number of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) and the Probable Outbreak Size On the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship: a Data-driven Analysis. Int J Infect Dis. 2020;93:201-204. PubMed PMID: 32097725.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Estimation of the reproductive number of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the probable outbreak size on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: A data-driven analysis. AU - Zhang,Sheng, AU - Diao,MengYuan, AU - Yu,Wenbo, AU - Pei,Lei, AU - Lin,Zhaofen, AU - Chen,Dechang, Y1 - 2020/02/22/ PY - 2020/02/15/received PY - 2020/02/17/revised PY - 2020/02/18/accepted PY - 2020/2/26/pubmed PY - 2020/5/6/medline PY - 2020/2/26/entrez KW - Coronavirus KW - Epidemiology KW - Mathematical model KW - Reproductive number SP - 201 EP - 204 JF - International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases JO - Int J Infect Dis VL - 93 N2 - BACKGROUNDS: Up to February 16, 2020, 355 cases have been confirmed as having COVID-19 infection on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. It is of crucial importance to estimate the reproductive number (R0) of the novel virus in the early stage of outbreak and make a prediction of daily new cases on the ship. METHOD: We fitted the reported serial interval (mean and standard deviation) with a gamma distribution and applied "earlyR" package in R to estimate the R0 in the early stage of COVID-19 outbreak. We applied "projections" package in R to simulate the plausible cumulative epidemic trajectories and future daily incidence by fitting the data of existing daily incidence, a serial interval distribution, and the estimated R0 into a model based on the assumption that daily incidence obeys approximately Poisson distribution determined by daily infectiousness. RESULTS: The Maximum-Likelihood (ML) value of R0 was 2.28 for COVID-19 outbreak at the early stage on the ship. The median with 95% confidence interval (CI) of R0 values was 2.28 (2.06-2.52) estimated by the bootstrap resampling method. The probable number of new cases for the next ten days would gradually increase, and the estimated cumulative cases would reach 1514 (1384-1656) at the tenth day in the future. However, if R0 value was reduced by 25% and 50%, the estimated total number of cumulative cases would be reduced to 1081 (981-1177) and 758 (697-817), respectively. CONCLUSION: The median with 95% CI of R0 of COVID-19 was about 2.28 (2.06-2.52) during the early stage experienced on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. The future daily incidence and probable outbreak size is largely dependent on the change of R0. Unless strict infection management and control are taken, our findings indicate the potential of COVID-19 to cause greater outbreak on the ship. SN - 1878-3511 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32097725/Estimation_of_the_reproductive_number_of_novel_coronavirus__COVID_19__and_the_probable_outbreak_size_on_the_Diamond_Princess_cruise_ship:_A_data_driven_analysis_ L2 - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1201-9712(20)30091-6 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -