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[WITHDRAWN: Potential false-positive rate among the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' in close contacts of COVID-19 patients].
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2020 Mar 05; 41(4):485-488.ZL

Abstract

Ahead of Print article withdrawn by publisher.

Objective:

As the prevention and control of COVID-19continues to advance, the active nucleic acid test screening in the close contacts of the patients has been carrying out in many parts of China. However, the false-positive rate of positive results in the screening has not been reported up to now. But to clearify the false-positive rate during screening is important in COVID-19 control and prevention.

Methods:

Point values and reasonable ranges of the indicators which impact the false-positive rate of positive results were estimated based on the information available to us at present. The false-positive rate of positive results in the active screening was deduced, and univariate and multivariate-probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to understand the robustness of the findings.

Results:

When the infection rate of the close contacts and the sensitivity and specificity of reported results were taken as the point estimates, the positive predictive value of the active screening was only 19.67%, in contrast, the false-positive rate of positive results was 80.33%. The multivariate-probabilistic sensitivity analysis results supported the base-case findings, with a 75% probability for the false-positive rate of positive results over 47%.

Conclusions:

In the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an 710061, China.No affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info available

Pub Type(s)

English Abstract
Journal Article

Language

chi

PubMed ID

32133832

Citation

Zhuang, G H., et al. "[WITHDRAWN: Potential False-positive Rate Among the 'asymptomatic Infected Individuals' in Close Contacts of COVID-19 Patients]." Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi = Zhonghua Liuxingbingxue Zazhi, vol. 41, no. 4, 2020, pp. 485-488.
Zhuang GH, Shen MW, Zeng LX, et al. [WITHDRAWN: Potential false-positive rate among the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' in close contacts of COVID-19 patients]. Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2020;41(4):485-488.
Zhuang, G. H., Shen, M. W., Zeng, L. X., Mi, B. B., Chen, F. Y., Liu, W. J., Pei, L. L., Qi, X., & Li, C. (2020). [WITHDRAWN: Potential false-positive rate among the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' in close contacts of COVID-19 patients]. Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi = Zhonghua Liuxingbingxue Zazhi, 41(4), 485-488. https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200221-00144
Zhuang GH, et al. [WITHDRAWN: Potential False-positive Rate Among the 'asymptomatic Infected Individuals' in Close Contacts of COVID-19 Patients]. Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2020 Mar 5;41(4):485-488. PubMed PMID: 32133832.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - [WITHDRAWN: Potential false-positive rate among the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' in close contacts of COVID-19 patients]. AU - Zhuang,G H, AU - Shen,M W, AU - Zeng,L X, AU - Mi,B B, AU - Chen,F Y, AU - Liu,W J, AU - Pei,L L, AU - Qi,X, AU - Li,C, Y1 - 2020/03/05/ PY - 2020/3/7/pubmed PY - 2020/3/7/medline PY - 2020/3/6/entrez KW - COVID-19 KW - Close contacts KW - False-positive KW - Nucleic acid test KW - Screening SP - 485 EP - 488 JF - Zhonghua liu xing bing xue za zhi = Zhonghua liuxingbingxue zazhi JO - Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi VL - 41 IS - 4 N2 - Ahead of Print article withdrawn by publisher. Objective: As the prevention and control of COVID-19continues to advance, the active nucleic acid test screening in the close contacts of the patients has been carrying out in many parts of China. However, the false-positive rate of positive results in the screening has not been reported up to now. But to clearify the false-positive rate during screening is important in COVID-19 control and prevention. Methods: Point values and reasonable ranges of the indicators which impact the false-positive rate of positive results were estimated based on the information available to us at present. The false-positive rate of positive results in the active screening was deduced, and univariate and multivariate-probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to understand the robustness of the findings. Results: When the infection rate of the close contacts and the sensitivity and specificity of reported results were taken as the point estimates, the positive predictive value of the active screening was only 19.67%, in contrast, the false-positive rate of positive results was 80.33%. The multivariate-probabilistic sensitivity analysis results supported the base-case findings, with a 75% probability for the false-positive rate of positive results over 47%. Conclusions: In the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives. SN - 0254-6450 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32133832/[Potential_false_positive_rate_among_the_'asymptomatic_infected_individuals'_in_close_contacts_of_COVID_19_patients]_ L2 - http://journal.yiigle.com/LinkIn.do?linkin_type=pubmed&DOI=10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200221-00144 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -
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