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The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.
Science. 2020 04 24; 368(6489):395-400.Sci

Abstract

Motivated by the rapid spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in mainland China, we use a global metapopulation disease transmission model to project the impact of travel limitations on the national and international spread of the epidemic. The model is calibrated on the basis of internationally reported cases and shows that, at the start of the travel ban from Wuhan on 23 January 2020, most Chinese cities had already received many infected travelers. The travel quarantine of Wuhan delayed the overall epidemic progression by only 3 to 5 days in mainland China but had a more marked effect on the international scale, where case importations were reduced by nearly 80% until mid-February. Modeling results also indicate that sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy.ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy.Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy.Fogarty International Center, NIH, Bethesda, MD, USA.Fogarty International Center, NIH, Bethesda, MD, USA.Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China.Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA. Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.Department of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA. a.vespignani@northeastern.edu ilongini@ufl.edu.Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA. a.vespignani@northeastern.edu ilongini@ufl.edu. ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32144116

Citation

Chinazzi, Matteo, et al. "The Effect of Travel Restrictions On the Spread of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak." Science (New York, N.Y.), vol. 368, no. 6489, 2020, pp. 395-400.
Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Ajelli M, et al. The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. Science. 2020;368(6489):395-400.
Chinazzi, M., Davis, J. T., Ajelli, M., Gioannini, C., Litvinova, M., Merler, S., Pastore Y Piontti, A., Mu, K., Rossi, L., Sun, K., Viboud, C., Xiong, X., Yu, H., Halloran, M. E., Longini, I. M., & Vespignani, A. (2020). The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. Science (New York, N.Y.), 368(6489), 395-400. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba9757
Chinazzi M, et al. The Effect of Travel Restrictions On the Spread of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak. Science. 2020 04 24;368(6489):395-400. PubMed PMID: 32144116.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. AU - Chinazzi,Matteo, AU - Davis,Jessica T, AU - Ajelli,Marco, AU - Gioannini,Corrado, AU - Litvinova,Maria, AU - Merler,Stefano, AU - Pastore Y Piontti,Ana, AU - Mu,Kunpeng, AU - Rossi,Luca, AU - Sun,Kaiyuan, AU - Viboud,Cécile, AU - Xiong,Xinyue, AU - Yu,Hongjie, AU - Halloran,M Elizabeth, AU - Longini,Ira M,Jr AU - Vespignani,Alessandro, Y1 - 2020/03/06/ PY - 2020/01/20/received PY - 2020/02/07/revised PY - 2020/03/05/accepted PY - 2020/3/8/pubmed PY - 2020/5/2/medline PY - 2020/3/8/entrez SP - 395 EP - 400 JF - Science (New York, N.Y.) JO - Science VL - 368 IS - 6489 N2 - Motivated by the rapid spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in mainland China, we use a global metapopulation disease transmission model to project the impact of travel limitations on the national and international spread of the epidemic. The model is calibrated on the basis of internationally reported cases and shows that, at the start of the travel ban from Wuhan on 23 January 2020, most Chinese cities had already received many infected travelers. The travel quarantine of Wuhan delayed the overall epidemic progression by only 3 to 5 days in mainland China but had a more marked effect on the international scale, where case importations were reduced by nearly 80% until mid-February. Modeling results also indicate that sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community. SN - 1095-9203 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32144116/The_effect_of_travel_restrictions_on_the_spread_of_the_2019_novel_coronavirus__COVID_19__outbreak_ L2 - https://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/pmidlookup?view=long&pmid=32144116 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -