Abstract
OBJECTIVE
To estimate the serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) from information on 28 infector-infectee pairs.
METHODS
We collected dates of illness onset for primary cases (infectors) and secondary cases (infectees) from published research articles and case investigation reports. We subjectively ranked the credibility of the data and performed analyses on both the full dataset (n = 28) and a subset of pairs with highest certainty in reporting (n = 18). In addition, we adjust for right truncation of the data as the epidemic is still in its growth phase.
RESULTS
Accounting for right truncation and analyzing all pairs, we estimated the median serial interval at 4.0 days (95% credible interval [CrI]: 3.1, 4.9). Limiting our data to only the most certain pairs, the median serial interval was estimated at 4.6 days (95% CrI: 3.5, 5.9).
CONCLUSIONS
The serial interval of COVID-19 is close to or shorter than its median incubation period. This suggests that a substantial proportion of secondary transmission may occur prior to illness onset. The COVID-19 serial interval is also shorter than the serial interval of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), indicating that calculations made using the SARS serial interval may introduce bias.
TY - JOUR
T1 - Serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections.
AU - Nishiura,Hiroshi,
AU - Linton,Natalie M,
AU - Akhmetzhanov,Andrei R,
Y1 - 2020/03/04/
PY - 2020/02/14/received
PY - 2020/02/25/revised
PY - 2020/02/27/accepted
PY - 2020/3/8/pubmed
PY - 2020/5/6/medline
PY - 2020/3/8/entrez
KW - Coronavirus
KW - Epidemiology
KW - Generation time
KW - Illness onset
KW - Outbreak
KW - Statistical model
KW - Viruses
SP - 284
EP - 286
JF - International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases
JO - Int J Infect Dis
VL - 93
N2 - OBJECTIVE: To estimate the serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) from information on 28 infector-infectee pairs. METHODS: We collected dates of illness onset for primary cases (infectors) and secondary cases (infectees) from published research articles and case investigation reports. We subjectively ranked the credibility of the data and performed analyses on both the full dataset (n = 28) and a subset of pairs with highest certainty in reporting (n = 18). In addition, we adjust for right truncation of the data as the epidemic is still in its growth phase. RESULTS: Accounting for right truncation and analyzing all pairs, we estimated the median serial interval at 4.0 days (95% credible interval [CrI]: 3.1, 4.9). Limiting our data to only the most certain pairs, the median serial interval was estimated at 4.6 days (95% CrI: 3.5, 5.9). CONCLUSIONS: The serial interval of COVID-19 is close to or shorter than its median incubation period. This suggests that a substantial proportion of secondary transmission may occur prior to illness onset. The COVID-19 serial interval is also shorter than the serial interval of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), indicating that calculations made using the SARS serial interval may introduce bias.
SN - 1878-3511
UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32145466/Serial_interval_of_novel_coronavirus__COVID_19__infections_
DB - PRIME
DP - Unbound Medicine
ER -
