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Serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections.
Int J Infect Dis. 2020 Apr; 93:284-286.IJ

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) from information on 28 infector-infectee pairs.

METHODS

We collected dates of illness onset for primary cases (infectors) and secondary cases (infectees) from published research articles and case investigation reports. We subjectively ranked the credibility of the data and performed analyses on both the full dataset (n = 28) and a subset of pairs with highest certainty in reporting (n = 18). In addition, we adjust for right truncation of the data as the epidemic is still in its growth phase.

RESULTS

Accounting for right truncation and analyzing all pairs, we estimated the median serial interval at 4.0 days (95% credible interval [CrI]: 3.1, 4.9). Limiting our data to only the most certain pairs, the median serial interval was estimated at 4.6 days (95% CrI: 3.5, 5.9).

CONCLUSIONS

The serial interval of COVID-19 is close to or shorter than its median incubation period. This suggests that a substantial proportion of secondary transmission may occur prior to illness onset. The COVID-19 serial interval is also shorter than the serial interval of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), indicating that calculations made using the SARS serial interval may introduce bias.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kia 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kitaku, Sapporo, 060-8638, Japan; CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama, 332-0012 Japan. Electronic address: nishiurah@med.hokudai.ac.jp.Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kia 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kitaku, Sapporo, 060-8638, Japan.Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kia 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kitaku, Sapporo, 060-8638, Japan.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32145466

Citation

Nishiura, Hiroshi, et al. "Serial Interval of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infections." International Journal of Infectious Diseases : IJID : Official Publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases, vol. 93, 2020, pp. 284-286.
Nishiura H, Linton NM, Akhmetzhanov AR. Serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections. Int J Infect Dis. 2020;93:284-286.
Nishiura, H., Linton, N. M., & Akhmetzhanov, A. R. (2020). Serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections. International Journal of Infectious Diseases : IJID : Official Publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases, 93, 284-286. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.060
Nishiura H, Linton NM, Akhmetzhanov AR. Serial Interval of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infections. Int J Infect Dis. 2020;93:284-286. PubMed PMID: 32145466.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections. AU - Nishiura,Hiroshi, AU - Linton,Natalie M, AU - Akhmetzhanov,Andrei R, Y1 - 2020/03/04/ PY - 2020/02/14/received PY - 2020/02/25/revised PY - 2020/02/27/accepted PY - 2020/3/8/pubmed PY - 2020/5/6/medline PY - 2020/3/8/entrez KW - Coronavirus KW - Epidemiology KW - Generation time KW - Illness onset KW - Outbreak KW - Statistical model KW - Viruses SP - 284 EP - 286 JF - International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases JO - Int J Infect Dis VL - 93 N2 - OBJECTIVE: To estimate the serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) from information on 28 infector-infectee pairs. METHODS: We collected dates of illness onset for primary cases (infectors) and secondary cases (infectees) from published research articles and case investigation reports. We subjectively ranked the credibility of the data and performed analyses on both the full dataset (n = 28) and a subset of pairs with highest certainty in reporting (n = 18). In addition, we adjust for right truncation of the data as the epidemic is still in its growth phase. RESULTS: Accounting for right truncation and analyzing all pairs, we estimated the median serial interval at 4.0 days (95% credible interval [CrI]: 3.1, 4.9). Limiting our data to only the most certain pairs, the median serial interval was estimated at 4.6 days (95% CrI: 3.5, 5.9). CONCLUSIONS: The serial interval of COVID-19 is close to or shorter than its median incubation period. This suggests that a substantial proportion of secondary transmission may occur prior to illness onset. The COVID-19 serial interval is also shorter than the serial interval of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), indicating that calculations made using the SARS serial interval may introduce bias. SN - 1878-3511 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32145466/Serial_interval_of_novel_coronavirus__COVID_19__infections_ DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -