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Estimating Risk for Death from Coronavirus Disease, China, January-February 2020.
Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 06; 26(6):1251-1256.EI

Abstract

Since December 2019, when the first case of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was identified in the city of Wuhan in the Hubei Province of China, the epidemic has generated tens of thousands of cases throughout China. As of February 28, 2020, the cumulative number of reported deaths in China was 2,858. We estimated the time-delay adjusted risk for death from COVID-19 in Wuhan, as well as for China excluding Wuhan, to assess the severity of the epidemic in the country. Our estimates of the risk for death in Wuhan reached values as high as 12% in the epicenter of the epidemic and ≈1% in other, more mildly affected areas. The elevated death risk estimates are probably associated with a breakdown of the healthcare system, indicating that enhanced public health interventions, including social distancing and movement restrictions, should be implemented to bring the COVID-19 epidemic under control.

Authors

No affiliation info availableNo affiliation info available

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32168464

Citation

Mizumoto, Kenji, and Gerardo Chowell. "Estimating Risk for Death From Coronavirus Disease, China, January-February 2020." Emerging Infectious Diseases, vol. 26, no. 6, 2020, pp. 1251-1256.
Mizumoto K, Chowell G. Estimating Risk for Death from Coronavirus Disease, China, January-February 2020. Emerging Infect Dis. 2020;26(6):1251-1256.
Mizumoto, K., & Chowell, G. (2020). Estimating Risk for Death from Coronavirus Disease, China, January-February 2020. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 26(6), 1251-1256. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2606.200233
Mizumoto K, Chowell G. Estimating Risk for Death From Coronavirus Disease, China, January-February 2020. Emerging Infect Dis. 2020;26(6):1251-1256. PubMed PMID: 32168464.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Estimating Risk for Death from Coronavirus Disease, China, January-February 2020. AU - Mizumoto,Kenji, AU - Chowell,Gerardo, Y1 - 2020/06/17/ PY - 2020/3/14/pubmed PY - 2020/5/28/medline PY - 2020/3/14/entrez KW - 2019 novel coronavirus disease KW - CFR KW - COVID-19 KW - China KW - Hubei KW - SARS-CoV-2 KW - Wuhan KW - case-fatality ratio KW - coronavirus KW - death KW - mortality KW - outbreak KW - respiratory diseases KW - risk KW - severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 KW - viruses KW - zoonoses SP - 1251 EP - 1256 JF - Emerging infectious diseases JO - Emerging Infect. Dis. VL - 26 IS - 6 N2 - Since December 2019, when the first case of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was identified in the city of Wuhan in the Hubei Province of China, the epidemic has generated tens of thousands of cases throughout China. As of February 28, 2020, the cumulative number of reported deaths in China was 2,858. We estimated the time-delay adjusted risk for death from COVID-19 in Wuhan, as well as for China excluding Wuhan, to assess the severity of the epidemic in the country. Our estimates of the risk for death in Wuhan reached values as high as 12% in the epicenter of the epidemic and ≈1% in other, more mildly affected areas. The elevated death risk estimates are probably associated with a breakdown of the healthcare system, indicating that enhanced public health interventions, including social distancing and movement restrictions, should be implemented to bring the COVID-19 epidemic under control. SN - 1080-6059 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32168464/Estimating_Risk_for_Death_from_Coronavirus_Disease_China_January_February_2020_ L2 - https://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid2606.200233 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -