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Impact of international travel and border control measures on the global spread of the novel 2019 coronavirus outbreak.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 03 31; 117(13):7504-7509.PN

Abstract

The novel coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19) in mainland China has rapidly spread across the globe. Within 2 mo since the outbreak was first reported on December 31, 2019, a total of 566 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS CoV-2) cases have been confirmed in 26 other countries. Travel restrictions and border control measures have been enforced in China and other countries to limit the spread of the outbreak. We estimate the impact of these control measures and investigate the role of the airport travel network on the global spread of the COVID-19 outbreak. Our results show that the daily risk of exporting at least a single SARS CoV-2 case from mainland China via international travel exceeded 95% on January 13, 2020. We found that 779 cases (95% CI: 632 to 967) would have been exported by February 15, 2020 without any border or travel restrictions and that the travel lockdowns enforced by the Chinese government averted 70.5% (95% CI: 68.8 to 72.0%) of these cases. In addition, during the first three and a half weeks of implementation, the travel restrictions decreased the daily rate of exportation by 81.3% (95% CI: 80.5 to 82.1%), on average. At this early stage of the epidemic, reduction in the rate of exportation could delay the importation of cases into cities unaffected by the COVID-19 outbreak, buying time to coordinate an appropriate public health response.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06520.Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06520.Agent-Based Modelling Laboratory, York University, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada.Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06520.Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06520.State Key Laboratory of Mycology, Institute of Microbiology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100101 Beijing, China.Department of Biostatistics, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510.Department of Integrative Biology, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712. Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM 87501.Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32610 bhsinger@epi.ufl.edu.Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06520.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32170017

Citation

Wells, Chad R., et al. "Impact of International Travel and Border Control Measures On the Global Spread of the Novel 2019 Coronavirus Outbreak." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol. 117, no. 13, 2020, pp. 7504-7509.
Wells CR, Sah P, Moghadas SM, et al. Impact of international travel and border control measures on the global spread of the novel 2019 coronavirus outbreak. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020;117(13):7504-7509.
Wells, C. R., Sah, P., Moghadas, S. M., Pandey, A., Shoukat, A., Wang, Y., Wang, Z., Meyers, L. A., Singer, B. H., & Galvani, A. P. (2020). Impact of international travel and border control measures on the global spread of the novel 2019 coronavirus outbreak. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 117(13), 7504-7509. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2002616117
Wells CR, et al. Impact of International Travel and Border Control Measures On the Global Spread of the Novel 2019 Coronavirus Outbreak. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 03 31;117(13):7504-7509. PubMed PMID: 32170017.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Impact of international travel and border control measures on the global spread of the novel 2019 coronavirus outbreak. AU - Wells,Chad R, AU - Sah,Pratha, AU - Moghadas,Seyed M, AU - Pandey,Abhishek, AU - Shoukat,Affan, AU - Wang,Yaning, AU - Wang,Zheng, AU - Meyers,Lauren A, AU - Singer,Burton H, AU - Galvani,Alison P, Y1 - 2020/03/13/ PY - 2020/3/15/pubmed PY - 2020/4/18/medline PY - 2020/3/15/entrez KW - COVID-19 KW - SARS-CoV-2 KW - disease importation KW - screening KW - surveillance SP - 7504 EP - 7509 JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America JO - Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A VL - 117 IS - 13 N2 - The novel coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19) in mainland China has rapidly spread across the globe. Within 2 mo since the outbreak was first reported on December 31, 2019, a total of 566 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS CoV-2) cases have been confirmed in 26 other countries. Travel restrictions and border control measures have been enforced in China and other countries to limit the spread of the outbreak. We estimate the impact of these control measures and investigate the role of the airport travel network on the global spread of the COVID-19 outbreak. Our results show that the daily risk of exporting at least a single SARS CoV-2 case from mainland China via international travel exceeded 95% on January 13, 2020. We found that 779 cases (95% CI: 632 to 967) would have been exported by February 15, 2020 without any border or travel restrictions and that the travel lockdowns enforced by the Chinese government averted 70.5% (95% CI: 68.8 to 72.0%) of these cases. In addition, during the first three and a half weeks of implementation, the travel restrictions decreased the daily rate of exportation by 81.3% (95% CI: 80.5 to 82.1%), on average. At this early stage of the epidemic, reduction in the rate of exportation could delay the importation of cases into cities unaffected by the COVID-19 outbreak, buying time to coordinate an appropriate public health response. SN - 1091-6490 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32170017/Impact_of_international_travel_and_border_control_measures_on_the_global_spread_of_the_novel_2019_coronavirus_outbreak_ L2 - http://www.pnas.org/cgi/pmidlookup?view=long&pmid=32170017 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -