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Early estimation of the case fatality rate of COVID-19 in mainland China: a data-driven analysis.
Ann Transl Med. 2020 Feb; 8(4):128.AT

Abstract

BACKGROUND

An ongoing outbreak of pneumonia caused by a novel coronavirus [severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV)-2], named COVID-19, hit a major city of China, Wuhan in December 2019 and subsequently spread to other provinces/regions of China and overseas. Several studies have been done to estimate the basic reproduction number in the early phase of this outbreak, yet there are no reliable estimates of case fatality rate (CFR) for COVID-19 to date.

METHODS

In this study, we used a purely data-driven statistical method to estimate the CFR in the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak. Daily numbers of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths were collected from January 10 to February 3, 2020 and divided into three clusters: Wuhan city, other cities of Hubei province, and other provinces of mainland China. Simple linear regression model was applied to estimate the CFR from each cluster.

RESULTS

We estimated that CFR during the first weeks of the epidemic ranges from 0.15% (95% CI: 0.12-0.18%) in mainland China excluding Hubei through 1.41% (95% CI: 1.38-1.45%) in Hubei province excluding the city of Wuhan to 5.25% (95% CI: 4.98-5.51%) in Wuhan.

CONCLUSIONS

Our early estimates suggest that the CFR of COVID-19 is lower than the previous coronavirus epidemics caused by SARS-CoV and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV).

Authors+Show Affiliations

College of Medical Information Engineering, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu 611137, China. Digital Institute of Medicine, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu 611137, China.Clinical Research Center, Zhujiang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510280, China.School of Public Health, Chengdu Medical College, Chengdu 610500, China.School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China. School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.Evidence-Based Medicine Center, School of Basic Medical Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China.The First Clinical Medical College of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China.School of Public Health, Chengdu Medical College, Chengdu 610500, China.School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China.Department of Respiratory, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Child Development and Disorders, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health and Disorders, China International Science and Technology Cooperation base of Child development and Critical Disorders, Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing 400014, China. Chongqing Key Laboratory of Pediatrics, Chongqing 400014, China.Department of Respiratory, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Child Development and Disorders, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health and Disorders, China International Science and Technology Cooperation base of Child development and Critical Disorders, Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing 400014, China. Chongqing Key Laboratory of Pediatrics, Chongqing 400014, China.College of Medical Information Engineering, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu 611137, China.Evidence-Based Medicine Center, School of Basic Medical Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China. WHO Collaborating Centre for Guideline Implementation and Knowledge Translation, Lanzhou 730000, China. GIN (Guidelines International Network) Asia, Lanzhou 730000, China. Key Laboratory of Evidence Based Medicine and Knowledge Translation of Gansu Province, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China.Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32175421

Citation

Yang, Shu, et al. "Early Estimation of the Case Fatality Rate of COVID-19 in Mainland China: a Data-driven Analysis." Annals of Translational Medicine, vol. 8, no. 4, 2020, p. 128.
Yang S, Cao P, Du P, et al. Early estimation of the case fatality rate of COVID-19 in mainland China: a data-driven analysis. Ann Transl Med. 2020;8(4):128.
Yang, S., Cao, P., Du, P., Wu, Z., Zhuang, Z., Yang, L., Yu, X., Zhou, Q., Feng, X., Wang, X., Li, W., Liu, E., Chen, J., Chen, Y., & He, D. (2020). Early estimation of the case fatality rate of COVID-19 in mainland China: a data-driven analysis. Annals of Translational Medicine, 8(4), 128. https://doi.org/10.21037/atm.2020.02.66
Yang S, et al. Early Estimation of the Case Fatality Rate of COVID-19 in Mainland China: a Data-driven Analysis. Ann Transl Med. 2020;8(4):128. PubMed PMID: 32175421.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Early estimation of the case fatality rate of COVID-19 in mainland China: a data-driven analysis. AU - Yang,Shu, AU - Cao,Peihua, AU - Du,Peipei, AU - Wu,Ziting, AU - Zhuang,Zian, AU - Yang,Lin, AU - Yu,Xuan, AU - Zhou,Qi, AU - Feng,Xixi, AU - Wang,Xiaohui, AU - Li,Weiguo, AU - Liu,Enmei, AU - Chen,Ju, AU - Chen,Yaolong, AU - He,Daihai, PY - 2020/3/17/entrez PY - 2020/3/17/pubmed PY - 2020/3/17/medline KW - 2019 novel coronavirus KW - COVID-19 KW - case fatality rate (CFR) KW - severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) SP - 128 EP - 128 JF - Annals of translational medicine JO - Ann Transl Med VL - 8 IS - 4 N2 - BACKGROUND: An ongoing outbreak of pneumonia caused by a novel coronavirus [severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV)-2], named COVID-19, hit a major city of China, Wuhan in December 2019 and subsequently spread to other provinces/regions of China and overseas. Several studies have been done to estimate the basic reproduction number in the early phase of this outbreak, yet there are no reliable estimates of case fatality rate (CFR) for COVID-19 to date. METHODS: In this study, we used a purely data-driven statistical method to estimate the CFR in the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak. Daily numbers of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths were collected from January 10 to February 3, 2020 and divided into three clusters: Wuhan city, other cities of Hubei province, and other provinces of mainland China. Simple linear regression model was applied to estimate the CFR from each cluster. RESULTS: We estimated that CFR during the first weeks of the epidemic ranges from 0.15% (95% CI: 0.12-0.18%) in mainland China excluding Hubei through 1.41% (95% CI: 1.38-1.45%) in Hubei province excluding the city of Wuhan to 5.25% (95% CI: 4.98-5.51%) in Wuhan. CONCLUSIONS: Our early estimates suggest that the CFR of COVID-19 is lower than the previous coronavirus epidemics caused by SARS-CoV and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). SN - 2305-5839 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32175421/Early_estimation_of_the_case_fatality_rate_of_COVID_19_in_mainland_China:_a_data_driven_analysis_ L2 - https://doi.org/10.21037/atm.2020.02.66 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -
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