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The positive impact of lockdown in Wuhan on containing the COVID-19 outbreak in China.
J Travel Med. 2020 May 18; 27(3)JT

Abstract

BACKGROUND

With its epicenter in Wuhan, China, the COVID-19 outbreak was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization (WHO). Consequently, many countries have implemented flight restrictions to China. China itself has imposed a lockdown of the population of Wuhan as well as the entire Hubei province. However, whether these two enormous measures have led to significant changes in the spread of COVID-19 cases remains unclear.

METHODS

We analyzed the available data on the development of confirmed domestic and international COVID-19 cases before and after lockdown measures. We evaluated the correlation of domestic air traffic to the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and determined the growth curves of COVID-19 cases within China before and after lockdown as well as after changes in COVID-19 diagnostic criteria.

RESULTS

Our findings indicate a significant increase in doubling time from 2 days (95% CI: 1.9-2.6) to 4 days (95% CI: 3.5-4.3), after imposing lockdown. A further increase is detected after changing diagnostic and testing methodology to 19.3 (95% CI: 15.1-26.3), respectively. Moreover, the correlation between domestic air traffic and COVID-19 spread became weaker following lockdown (before lockdown: r = 0.98, P < 0.05 vs after lockdown: r = 0.91, P = NS).

CONCLUSIONS

A significantly decreased growth rate and increased doubling time of cases was observed, which is most likely due to Chinese lockdown measures. A more stringent confinement of people in high risk areas seems to have a potential to slow down the spread of COVID-19.

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Authors+Show Affiliations

Lau H
Department of Surgery, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA.
Khosrawipour V
Department of Surgery, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA.
Kocbach P
Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Warmia and Mazury, Olszytn, Poland.
Mikolajczyk A
Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Faculty of Veterinary Sciences, Wroclaw University of Environmental and Life Sciences, Wroclaw, Poland.
Schubert J
Department of Food Hygiene and Consumer Health Protection, Wroclaw University of Environmental and Life Sciences, Wroclaw, Poland.
Bania J
Department of Food Hygiene and Consumer Health Protection, Wroclaw University of Environmental and Life Sciences, Wroclaw, Poland.
Khosrawipour T
Department of Surgery, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA. Department of Surgery (A), University-Hospital Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf, Germany.

MeSH

AircraftBetacoronavirusCOVID-19ChinaCoronavirus InfectionsHumansPandemicsPneumonia, ViralQuarantineSARS-CoV-2Travel

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32181488

Citation

Lau, Hien, et al. "The Positive Impact of Lockdown in Wuhan On Containing the COVID-19 Outbreak in China." Journal of Travel Medicine, vol. 27, no. 3, 2020.
Lau H, Khosrawipour V, Kocbach P, et al. The positive impact of lockdown in Wuhan on containing the COVID-19 outbreak in China. J Travel Med. 2020;27(3).
Lau, H., Khosrawipour, V., Kocbach, P., Mikolajczyk, A., Schubert, J., Bania, J., & Khosrawipour, T. (2020). The positive impact of lockdown in Wuhan on containing the COVID-19 outbreak in China. Journal of Travel Medicine, 27(3). https://doi.org/10.1093/jtm/taaa037
Lau H, et al. The Positive Impact of Lockdown in Wuhan On Containing the COVID-19 Outbreak in China. J Travel Med. 2020 May 18;27(3) PubMed PMID: 32181488.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - The positive impact of lockdown in Wuhan on containing the COVID-19 outbreak in China. AU - Lau,Hien, AU - Khosrawipour,Veria, AU - Kocbach,Piotr, AU - Mikolajczyk,Agata, AU - Schubert,Justyna, AU - Bania,Jacek, AU - Khosrawipour,Tanja, PY - 2020/2/25/received PY - 2020/3/11/revised PY - 2020/3/12/accepted PY - 2020/3/18/pubmed PY - 2020/5/27/medline PY - 2020/3/18/entrez KW - COVID-19 KW - Pandemic KW - coronavirus KW - effective KW - measures KW - spread JF - Journal of travel medicine JO - J Travel Med VL - 27 IS - 3 N2 - BACKGROUND: With its epicenter in Wuhan, China, the COVID-19 outbreak was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization (WHO). Consequently, many countries have implemented flight restrictions to China. China itself has imposed a lockdown of the population of Wuhan as well as the entire Hubei province. However, whether these two enormous measures have led to significant changes in the spread of COVID-19 cases remains unclear. METHODS: We analyzed the available data on the development of confirmed domestic and international COVID-19 cases before and after lockdown measures. We evaluated the correlation of domestic air traffic to the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and determined the growth curves of COVID-19 cases within China before and after lockdown as well as after changes in COVID-19 diagnostic criteria. RESULTS: Our findings indicate a significant increase in doubling time from 2 days (95% CI: 1.9-2.6) to 4 days (95% CI: 3.5-4.3), after imposing lockdown. A further increase is detected after changing diagnostic and testing methodology to 19.3 (95% CI: 15.1-26.3), respectively. Moreover, the correlation between domestic air traffic and COVID-19 spread became weaker following lockdown (before lockdown: r = 0.98, P < 0.05 vs after lockdown: r = 0.91, P = NS). CONCLUSIONS: A significantly decreased growth rate and increased doubling time of cases was observed, which is most likely due to Chinese lockdown measures. A more stringent confinement of people in high risk areas seems to have a potential to slow down the spread of COVID-19. SN - 1708-8305 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32181488/The_positive_impact_of_lockdown_in_Wuhan_on_containing_the_COVID_19_outbreak_in_China_ DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -