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Modeling the epidemic dynamics and control of COVID-19 outbreak in China.
Quant Biol. 2020 Mar 11 [Online ahead of print]QB

Abstract

Background

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is rapidly spreading in China and more than 30 countries over last two months. COVID-19 has multiple characteristics distinct from other infectious diseases, including high infectivity during incubation, time delay between real dynamics and daily observed number of confirmed cases, and the intervention effects of implemented quarantine and control measures.

Methods

We develop a Susceptible, Un-quanrantined infected, Quarantined infected, Confirmed infected (SUQC) model to characterize the dynamics of COVID-19 and explicitly parameterize the intervention effects of control measures, which is more suitable for analysis than other existing epidemic models.

Results

The SUQC model is applied to the daily released data of the confirmed infections to analyze the outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan, Hubei (excluding Wuhan), China (excluding Hubei) and four first-tier cities of China. We found that, before January 30, 2020, all these regions except Beijing had a reproductive number R > 1, and after January 30, all regions had a reproductive number R < 1, indicating that the quarantine and control measures are effective in preventing the spread of COVID-19. The confirmation rate of Wuhan estimated by our model is 0.0643, substantially lower than that of Hubei excluding Wuhan (0.1914), and that of China excluding Hubei (0.2189), but it jumps to 0.3229 after February 12 when clinical evidence was adopted in new diagnosis guidelines. The number of unquarantined infected cases in Wuhan on February 12, 2020 is estimated to be 3,509 and declines to 334 on February 21, 2020. After fitting the model with data as of February 21, 2020, we predict that the end time of COVID-19 in Wuhan and Hubei is around late March, around mid March for China excluding Hubei, and before early March 2020 for the four tier-one cities. A total of 80,511 individuals are estimated to be infected in China, among which 49,510 are from Wuhan, 17,679 from Hubei (excluding Wuhan), and the rest 13,322 from other regions of China (excluding Hubei). Note that the estimates are from a deterministic ODE model and should be interpreted with some uncertainty.

Conclusions

We suggest that rigorous quarantine and control measures should be kept before early March in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and before late March in Hubei. The model can also be useful to predict the trend of epidemic and provide quantitative guide for other countries at high risk of outbreak, such as South Korea, Japan, Italy and Iran.

Supplementary Materials

The supplementary materials can be found online with this article at 10.1007/s40484-020-0199-0.

Authors+Show Affiliations

1CAS Key Laboratory of Genomic and Precision Medicine, Beijing Institute of Genomics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101 China. China National Center for Bioinformation, Beijing, 100101 China. 3School of Future Technology, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049 China.1CAS Key Laboratory of Genomic and Precision Medicine, Beijing Institute of Genomics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101 China. China National Center for Bioinformation, Beijing, 100101 China. 3School of Future Technology, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049 China. 4CAS Center for Excellence in Animal Evolution and Genetics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming, 650223 China.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32219006

Citation

Zhao, Shilei, and Hua Chen. "Modeling the Epidemic Dynamics and Control of COVID-19 Outbreak in China." Quantitative Biology (Beijing, China), 2020, pp. 1-9.
Zhao S, Chen H. Modeling the epidemic dynamics and control of COVID-19 outbreak in China. Quantitative biology (Beijing, China). 2020.
Zhao, S., & Chen, H. (2020). Modeling the epidemic dynamics and control of COVID-19 outbreak in China. Quantitative Biology (Beijing, China), 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40484-020-0199-0
Zhao S, Chen H. Modeling the Epidemic Dynamics and Control of COVID-19 Outbreak in China. Quantitative biology (Beijing, China). 2020 Mar 11;1-9. PubMed PMID: 32219006.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Modeling the epidemic dynamics and control of COVID-19 outbreak in China. AU - Zhao,Shilei, AU - Chen,Hua, Y1 - 2020/03/11/ PY - 2020/02/29/received PY - 2020/03/04/revised PY - 2020/03/04/accepted PY - 2020/3/29/entrez PY - 2020/3/29/pubmed PY - 2020/3/29/medline KW - SARS-CoV-2 KW - coronavirus disease 2019 KW - epidemic model SP - 1 EP - 9 JF - Quantitative biology (Beijing, China) N2 - Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is rapidly spreading in China and more than 30 countries over last two months. COVID-19 has multiple characteristics distinct from other infectious diseases, including high infectivity during incubation, time delay between real dynamics and daily observed number of confirmed cases, and the intervention effects of implemented quarantine and control measures. Methods: We develop a Susceptible, Un-quanrantined infected, Quarantined infected, Confirmed infected (SUQC) model to characterize the dynamics of COVID-19 and explicitly parameterize the intervention effects of control measures, which is more suitable for analysis than other existing epidemic models. Results: The SUQC model is applied to the daily released data of the confirmed infections to analyze the outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan, Hubei (excluding Wuhan), China (excluding Hubei) and four first-tier cities of China. We found that, before January 30, 2020, all these regions except Beijing had a reproductive number R > 1, and after January 30, all regions had a reproductive number R < 1, indicating that the quarantine and control measures are effective in preventing the spread of COVID-19. The confirmation rate of Wuhan estimated by our model is 0.0643, substantially lower than that of Hubei excluding Wuhan (0.1914), and that of China excluding Hubei (0.2189), but it jumps to 0.3229 after February 12 when clinical evidence was adopted in new diagnosis guidelines. The number of unquarantined infected cases in Wuhan on February 12, 2020 is estimated to be 3,509 and declines to 334 on February 21, 2020. After fitting the model with data as of February 21, 2020, we predict that the end time of COVID-19 in Wuhan and Hubei is around late March, around mid March for China excluding Hubei, and before early March 2020 for the four tier-one cities. A total of 80,511 individuals are estimated to be infected in China, among which 49,510 are from Wuhan, 17,679 from Hubei (excluding Wuhan), and the rest 13,322 from other regions of China (excluding Hubei). Note that the estimates are from a deterministic ODE model and should be interpreted with some uncertainty. Conclusions: We suggest that rigorous quarantine and control measures should be kept before early March in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and before late March in Hubei. The model can also be useful to predict the trend of epidemic and provide quantitative guide for other countries at high risk of outbreak, such as South Korea, Japan, Italy and Iran. Supplementary Materials: The supplementary materials can be found online with this article at 10.1007/s40484-020-0199-0. SN - 2095-4689 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32219006/Modeling_the_epidemic_dynamics_and_control_of_COVID_19_outbreak_in_China_ L2 - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/32219006/ DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -
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