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Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, February 2020.
Euro Surveill. 2020 03; 25(12)ES

Abstract

Adjusting for delay from confirmation to death, we estimated case and infection fatality ratios (CFR, IFR) for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the Diamond Princess ship as 2.6% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.89-6.7) and 1.3% (95% CI: 0.38-3.6), respectively. Comparing deaths on board with expected deaths based on naive CFR estimates from China, we estimated CFR and IFR in China to be 1.2% (95% CI: 0.3-2.7) and 0.6% (95% CI: 0.2-1.3), respectively.

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Authors+Show Affiliations

Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.

Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom. These authors contributed equally to this work.

Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom. These authors contributed equally to this work.

van Zandvoort K

Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom. These authors contributed equally to this work.

Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.

Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom. Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.

CMMID COVID-19 working group

The members of the Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases (CMMID) COVID-19 working group are listed at the end of the article.

Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.

Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.

Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.

Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32234121

Citation

Russell, Timothy W., et al. "Estimating the Infection and Case Fatality Ratio for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Using Age-adjusted Data From the Outbreak On the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship, February 2020." Euro Surveillance : Bulletin Europeen Sur Les Maladies Transmissibles = European Communicable Disease Bulletin, vol. 25, no. 12, 2020.

Russell TW, Hellewell J, Jarvis CI, et al. Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, February 2020. Euro Surveill. 2020;25(12).

Russell, T. W., Hellewell, J., Jarvis, C. I., van Zandvoort, K., Abbott, S., Ratnayake, R., Flasche, S., Eggo, R. M., Edmunds, W. J., & Kucharski, A. J. (2020). Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, February 2020. Euro Surveillance : Bulletin Europeen Sur Les Maladies Transmissibles = European Communicable Disease Bulletin, 25(12). https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000256

Russell TW, et al. Estimating the Infection and Case Fatality Ratio for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Using Age-adjusted Data From the Outbreak On the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship, February 2020. Euro Surveill. 2020;25(12) PubMed PMID: 32234121.

* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case

TY - JOUR T1 - Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, February 2020. AU - Russell,Timothy W, AU - Hellewell,Joel, AU - Jarvis,Christopher I, AU - van Zandvoort,Kevin, AU - Abbott,Sam, AU - Ratnayake,Ruwan, AU - ,, AU - Flasche,Stefan, AU - Eggo,Rosalind M, AU - Edmunds,W John, AU - Kucharski,Adam J, PY - 2020/4/3/entrez PY - 2020/4/3/pubmed PY - 2020/4/11/medline KW - COVID-19 KW - Case fatality ratio KW - asymptomatic KW - coronavirus KW - cruise ship KW - infection fatality ratio KW - outbreak KW - severity JF - Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin JO - Euro Surveill VL - 25 IS - 12 N2 - Adjusting for delay from confirmation to death, we estimated case and infection fatality ratios (CFR, IFR) for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the Diamond Princess ship as 2.6% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.89-6.7) and 1.3% (95% CI: 0.38-3.6), respectively. Comparing deaths on board with expected deaths based on naive CFR estimates from China, we estimated CFR and IFR in China to be 1.2% (95% CI: 0.3-2.7) and 0.6% (95% CI: 0.2-1.3), respectively. SN - 1560-7917 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32234121/full_citation DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -