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High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2.
Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 07; 26(7):1470-1477.EI

Abstract

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the ongoing coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6-7 days and a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.2-2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period (4.2 days). We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3-3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6-9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8-8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

Authors

No affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info available

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32255761

Citation

Sanche, Steven, et al. "High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2." Emerging Infectious Diseases, vol. 26, no. 7, 2020, pp. 1470-1477.
Sanche S, Lin YT, Xu C, et al. High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2. Emerg Infect Dis. 2020;26(7):1470-1477.
Sanche, S., Lin, Y. T., Xu, C., Romero-Severson, E., Hengartner, N., & Ke, R. (2020). High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 26(7), 1470-1477. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2607.200282
Sanche S, et al. High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2. Emerg Infect Dis. 2020;26(7):1470-1477. PubMed PMID: 32255761.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2. AU - Sanche,Steven, AU - Lin,Yen Ting, AU - Xu,Chonggang, AU - Romero-Severson,Ethan, AU - Hengartner,Nick, AU - Ke,Ruian, Y1 - 2020/06/21/ PY - 2020/4/8/pubmed PY - 2020/7/1/medline PY - 2020/4/8/entrez KW - 2019 novel coronavirus disease KW - COVID-19 KW - China KW - SARS-CoV-2 KW - Wuhan KW - modeling KW - respiratory infections KW - severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 KW - transmission potential KW - viruses KW - zoonoses SP - 1470 EP - 1477 JF - Emerging infectious diseases JO - Emerg Infect Dis VL - 26 IS - 7 N2 - Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the ongoing coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6-7 days and a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.2-2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period (4.2 days). We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3-3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6-9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8-8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus. SN - 1080-6059 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32255761/High_Contagiousness_and_Rapid_Spread_of_Severe_Acute_Respiratory_Syndrome_Coronavirus_2_ L2 - https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2607.200282 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -