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When will the battle against novel coronavirus end in Wuhan: A SEIR modeling analysis.
J Glob Health. 2020 Jun; 10(1):011002.JG

Abstract

Background

Recent outbreak of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan raised serious public health concerns. By February 15, 2020 in Wuhan, the total number of confirmed infection cases has reached 37 914, and the number of deaths has reached 1123, accounting for 56.9% of the total confirmed cases and 73.7% of the total deaths in China. People are eager to know when the epidemic will be completely controlled and when people's work and life will be on the right track.

Method

In this study we analyzed the epidemic dynamics and trend of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan by using the data after the closure of Wuhan city till February 12, 2020 based on the SEIR modeling method.

Results

The optimal parameters were estimated as R0 = 1.44 (interquartile range: 1.40-1.47), TI = 14 (interquartile range = 14-14) and TE = 3.0 (interquartile range = 2.8-3.1). Based on these parameters, the number of infected individuals in Wuhan city may reach the peak around February 19 at about 47 000 people. Once entering March, the epidemic would gradually decline, and end around the late March. It is worth noting that the above prediction is based on the assumption that the number of susceptible population N = 200 000 will not increase. If the epidemic situation is not properly controlled, the peak of infected number can be further increased and the peak time will be a little postponed. It was expected that the epidemic would subside in early March, and disappear gradually towards the late March.

Conclusions

The epidemic situation of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan was effectively controlled after the closure of the city, and the disease transmission index also decreased significantly. It is expected that the peak of epidemic situation would be reached in late February and end in March.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Wuhan Ammunition Life-Tech Co Ltd, Wuhan, Hubei, China.Clinics of Oilcrops Research Institute, CAAS, Wuhan, Hubei, China.Wuhan Ammunition Life-Tech Co Ltd, Wuhan, Hubei, China.Wuhan Ammunition Life-Tech Co Ltd, Wuhan, Hubei, China.Wuhan Ammunition Life-Tech Co Ltd, Wuhan, Hubei, China.Wuhan Ammunition Life-Tech Co Ltd, Wuhan, Hubei, China.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32257174

Citation

Wan, Kangkang, et al. "When Will the Battle Against Novel Coronavirus End in Wuhan: a SEIR Modeling Analysis." Journal of Global Health, vol. 10, no. 1, 2020, p. 011002.
Wan K, Chen J, Lu C, et al. When will the battle against novel coronavirus end in Wuhan: A SEIR modeling analysis. J Glob Health. 2020;10(1):011002.
Wan, K., Chen, J., Lu, C., Dong, L., Wu, Z., & Zhang, L. (2020). When will the battle against novel coronavirus end in Wuhan: A SEIR modeling analysis. Journal of Global Health, 10(1), 011002. https://doi.org/10.7189/jogh.10.011002
Wan K, et al. When Will the Battle Against Novel Coronavirus End in Wuhan: a SEIR Modeling Analysis. J Glob Health. 2020;10(1):011002. PubMed PMID: 32257174.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - When will the battle against novel coronavirus end in Wuhan: A SEIR modeling analysis. AU - Wan,Kangkang, AU - Chen,Jing, AU - Lu,Changming, AU - Dong,Lanlan, AU - Wu,Zhicheng, AU - Zhang,Lianglu, PY - 2020/4/8/entrez PY - 2020/4/8/pubmed PY - 2020/4/16/medline SP - 011002 EP - 011002 JF - Journal of global health JO - J Glob Health VL - 10 IS - 1 N2 - Background: Recent outbreak of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan raised serious public health concerns. By February 15, 2020 in Wuhan, the total number of confirmed infection cases has reached 37 914, and the number of deaths has reached 1123, accounting for 56.9% of the total confirmed cases and 73.7% of the total deaths in China. People are eager to know when the epidemic will be completely controlled and when people's work and life will be on the right track. Method: In this study we analyzed the epidemic dynamics and trend of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan by using the data after the closure of Wuhan city till February 12, 2020 based on the SEIR modeling method. Results: The optimal parameters were estimated as R0 = 1.44 (interquartile range: 1.40-1.47), TI = 14 (interquartile range = 14-14) and TE = 3.0 (interquartile range = 2.8-3.1). Based on these parameters, the number of infected individuals in Wuhan city may reach the peak around February 19 at about 47 000 people. Once entering March, the epidemic would gradually decline, and end around the late March. It is worth noting that the above prediction is based on the assumption that the number of susceptible population N = 200 000 will not increase. If the epidemic situation is not properly controlled, the peak of infected number can be further increased and the peak time will be a little postponed. It was expected that the epidemic would subside in early March, and disappear gradually towards the late March. Conclusions: The epidemic situation of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan was effectively controlled after the closure of the city, and the disease transmission index also decreased significantly. It is expected that the peak of epidemic situation would be reached in late February and end in March. SN - 2047-2986 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32257174/When_will_the_battle_against_novel_coronavirus_end_in_Wuhan:_A_SEIR_modeling_analysis_ L2 - https://doi.org/10.7189/jogh.10.011002 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -