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Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period.
Science. 2020 05 22; 368(6493):860-868.Sci

Abstract

It is urgent to understand the future of severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. We used estimates of seasonality, immunity, and cross-immunity for human coronavirus OC43 (HCoV-OC43) and HCoV-HKU1 using time-series data from the United States to inform a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We projected that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after the initial, most severe pandemic wave. Absent other interventions, a key metric for the success of social distancing is whether critical care capacities are exceeded. To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022. Additional interventions, including expanded critical care capacity and an effective therapeutic, would improve the success of intermittent distancing and hasten the acquisition of herd immunity. Longitudinal serological studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained because a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA. mlipsitc@hsph.harvard.edu ygrad@hsph.harvard.edu.Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA. mlipsitc@hsph.harvard.edu ygrad@hsph.harvard.edu.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32291278

Citation

Kissler, Stephen M., et al. "Projecting the Transmission Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Through the Postpandemic Period." Science (New York, N.Y.), vol. 368, no. 6493, 2020, pp. 860-868.
Kissler SM, Tedijanto C, Goldstein E, et al. Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period. Science. 2020;368(6493):860-868.
Kissler, S. M., Tedijanto, C., Goldstein, E., Grad, Y. H., & Lipsitch, M. (2020). Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period. Science (New York, N.Y.), 368(6493), 860-868. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abb5793
Kissler SM, et al. Projecting the Transmission Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Through the Postpandemic Period. Science. 2020 05 22;368(6493):860-868. PubMed PMID: 32291278.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period. AU - Kissler,Stephen M, AU - Tedijanto,Christine, AU - Goldstein,Edward, AU - Grad,Yonatan H, AU - Lipsitch,Marc, Y1 - 2020/04/14/ PY - 2020/03/04/received PY - 2020/04/09/accepted PY - 2020/4/16/pubmed PY - 2020/5/29/medline PY - 2020/4/16/entrez SP - 860 EP - 868 JF - Science (New York, N.Y.) JO - Science VL - 368 IS - 6493 N2 - It is urgent to understand the future of severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. We used estimates of seasonality, immunity, and cross-immunity for human coronavirus OC43 (HCoV-OC43) and HCoV-HKU1 using time-series data from the United States to inform a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We projected that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after the initial, most severe pandemic wave. Absent other interventions, a key metric for the success of social distancing is whether critical care capacities are exceeded. To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022. Additional interventions, including expanded critical care capacity and an effective therapeutic, would improve the success of intermittent distancing and hasten the acquisition of herd immunity. Longitudinal serological studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained because a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024. SN - 1095-9203 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32291278/Projecting_the_transmission_dynamics_of_SARS_CoV_2_through_the_postpandemic_period_ L2 - http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/pmidlookup?view=long&pmid=32291278 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -