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Failure in initial stage containment of global COVID-19 epicenters.
J Med Virol. 2020 07; 92(7):863-867.JM

Abstract

With multiple virus epicenters, COVID-19 has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. Consequently, many countries have implemented different policies to manage this crisis including curfew and lockdown. However, the efficacy of individual policies remains unclear with respect to COVID-19 case development. We analyzed available data on COVID-19 cases of eight majorly affected countries, including China, Italy, Iran, Germany, France, Spain, South Korea, and Japan. Growth rates and doubling time of cases were calculated for the first 6 weeks after the initial cases were declared for each respective country and put into context with implemented policies. Although the growth rate of total confirmed COVID-19 cases in China has decreased, those for Japan have remained constant. For European countries, the growth rate of COVID-19 cases considerably increased during the second time interval. Interestingly, the rates for Germany, Spain, and France are the highest measured in the second interval and even surpass the numbers in Italy. Although the initial data in Asian countries are encouraging with respect to case development at the initial stage, the opposite is true for European countries. Based on our data, disease management in the 2 weeks following the first reported cases is of utmost importance.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Department of Surgery, University of California Irvine, Irvine, California. Department of Food Hygiene and Consumer Health Protection, Wroclaw University of Environmental and Life Sciences, Wroclaw, Poland.Department of Surgery, University of California Irvine, Irvine, California.Department of Surgery, University of California Irvine, Irvine, California. Department of Surgery (A), University-Hospital Düsseldorf, Heinrich-Heine University Düsseldorf, Germany.Division of Infectious diseases, University of Warmia and Mazury, Olszytn, Poland.Department of Surgery, University of California Irvine, Irvine, California.Department of Food Hygiene and Consumer Health Protection, Wroclaw University of Environmental and Life Sciences, Wroclaw, Poland.Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Faculty of Veterinary Sciences, Wroclaw University of Environmental and Life Sciences, Wroclaw, Poland.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32297980

Citation

Khosrawipour, Veria, et al. "Failure in Initial Stage Containment of Global COVID-19 Epicenters." Journal of Medical Virology, vol. 92, no. 7, 2020, pp. 863-867.
Khosrawipour V, Lau H, Khosrawipour T, et al. Failure in initial stage containment of global COVID-19 epicenters. J Med Virol. 2020;92(7):863-867.
Khosrawipour, V., Lau, H., Khosrawipour, T., Kocbach, P., Ichii, H., Bania, J., & Mikolajczyk, A. (2020). Failure in initial stage containment of global COVID-19 epicenters. Journal of Medical Virology, 92(7), 863-867. https://doi.org/10.1002/jmv.25883
Khosrawipour V, et al. Failure in Initial Stage Containment of Global COVID-19 Epicenters. J Med Virol. 2020;92(7):863-867. PubMed PMID: 32297980.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Failure in initial stage containment of global COVID-19 epicenters. AU - Khosrawipour,Veria, AU - Lau,Hien, AU - Khosrawipour,Tanja, AU - Kocbach,Piotr, AU - Ichii,Hirohito, AU - Bania,Jacek, AU - Mikolajczyk,Agata, Y1 - 2020/04/28/ PY - 2020/03/23/received PY - 2020/04/13/accepted PY - 2020/4/17/pubmed PY - 2020/6/25/medline PY - 2020/4/17/entrez KW - COVID-19 KW - coronavirus KW - effective KW - measures KW - pandemic KW - spread SP - 863 EP - 867 JF - Journal of medical virology JO - J Med Virol VL - 92 IS - 7 N2 - With multiple virus epicenters, COVID-19 has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. Consequently, many countries have implemented different policies to manage this crisis including curfew and lockdown. However, the efficacy of individual policies remains unclear with respect to COVID-19 case development. We analyzed available data on COVID-19 cases of eight majorly affected countries, including China, Italy, Iran, Germany, France, Spain, South Korea, and Japan. Growth rates and doubling time of cases were calculated for the first 6 weeks after the initial cases were declared for each respective country and put into context with implemented policies. Although the growth rate of total confirmed COVID-19 cases in China has decreased, those for Japan have remained constant. For European countries, the growth rate of COVID-19 cases considerably increased during the second time interval. Interestingly, the rates for Germany, Spain, and France are the highest measured in the second interval and even surpass the numbers in Italy. Although the initial data in Asian countries are encouraging with respect to case development at the initial stage, the opposite is true for European countries. Based on our data, disease management in the 2 weeks following the first reported cases is of utmost importance. SN - 1096-9071 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32297980/Failure_in_initial_stage_containment_of_global_COVID_19_epicenters_ DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -