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Population movement, city closure in Wuhan and geographical expansion of the 2019-nCoV pneumonia infection in China in January 2020.
Clin Infect Dis. 2020 Apr 17 [Online ahead of print]CI

Abstract

BACKGROUND

The unprecedented outbreak of 2019-nCoV pneumonia infection in Wuhan City caused global concern, the outflowing population from Wuhan was believed to be a main reason for the rapid and large-scale spread of the disease, so the government implemented a city closure measure to prevent its transmission considering the large amount of travelling before the Chinese New Year.

METHODS

Based on the daily reported new cases and the population movement data between January 1 and 31, we examined the effects of population outflow from Wuhan on the geographical expansion of the infection in other provinces and cities of China, as well as the impacts of the city closure in Wuhan in different scenarios of closing dates.

RESULTS

We observed a significantly positive association between population movement and the number of the 2019-nCoV cases. The spatial distribution of cases per unit outflow population indicated that some areas with large outflow population might have been underestimated for the infection, such as Henan and Hunan provinces. Further analysis revealed that if the city closure policy was implemented two days earlier, 1420 (95% CI: 1059, 1833) cases could have been prevented, and if two days later, 1462 (95% CI: 1090, 1886) more cases would be possible.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that population movement might be one important trigger for the transmission of 2019-nCoV infection in China, and the policy of city closure is effective to control the epidemic.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Department of Epidemiology, Ministry of Education Key Lab of Hazard Assessment and Control in Special Operational Environment, School of Public Health, Air Force Medical University, Xi'an, China.Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.Department of Epidemiology, Ministry of Education Key Lab of Hazard Assessment and Control in Special Operational Environment, School of Public Health, Air Force Medical University, Xi'an, China.School of Mathematics and Computing Science, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin, China.Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.Department of Epidemiology, Ministry of Education Key Lab of Hazard Assessment and Control in Special Operational Environment, School of Public Health, Air Force Medical University, Xi'an, China.Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32302377

Citation

Liu, Kun, et al. "Population Movement, City Closure in Wuhan and Geographical Expansion of the 2019-nCoV Pneumonia Infection in China in January 2020." Clinical Infectious Diseases : an Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 2020.
Liu K, Ai S, Song S, et al. Population movement, city closure in Wuhan and geographical expansion of the 2019-nCoV pneumonia infection in China in January 2020. Clin Infect Dis. 2020.
Liu, K., Ai, S., Song, S., Zhu, G., Tian, F., Li, H., Gao, Y., Wu, Y., Zhang, S., Shao, Z., Liu, Q., & Lin, H. (2020). Population movement, city closure in Wuhan and geographical expansion of the 2019-nCoV pneumonia infection in China in January 2020. Clinical Infectious Diseases : an Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa422
Liu K, et al. Population Movement, City Closure in Wuhan and Geographical Expansion of the 2019-nCoV Pneumonia Infection in China in January 2020. Clin Infect Dis. 2020 Apr 17; PubMed PMID: 32302377.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Population movement, city closure in Wuhan and geographical expansion of the 2019-nCoV pneumonia infection in China in January 2020. AU - Liu,Kun, AU - Ai,Siqi, AU - Song,Shuxuan, AU - Zhu,Guanghu, AU - Tian,Fei, AU - Li,Huan, AU - Gao,Yuan, AU - Wu,Yinglin, AU - Zhang,Shiyu, AU - Shao,Zhongjun, AU - Liu,Qiyong, AU - Lin,Hualiang, Y1 - 2020/04/17/ PY - 2020/02/11/received PY - 2020/4/18/entrez PY - 2020/4/18/pubmed PY - 2020/4/18/medline KW - 2019-nCoV infection KW - Infection transmission KW - Population movement KW - Wuhan JF - Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America JO - Clin. Infect. Dis. N2 - BACKGROUND: The unprecedented outbreak of 2019-nCoV pneumonia infection in Wuhan City caused global concern, the outflowing population from Wuhan was believed to be a main reason for the rapid and large-scale spread of the disease, so the government implemented a city closure measure to prevent its transmission considering the large amount of travelling before the Chinese New Year. METHODS: Based on the daily reported new cases and the population movement data between January 1 and 31, we examined the effects of population outflow from Wuhan on the geographical expansion of the infection in other provinces and cities of China, as well as the impacts of the city closure in Wuhan in different scenarios of closing dates. RESULTS: We observed a significantly positive association between population movement and the number of the 2019-nCoV cases. The spatial distribution of cases per unit outflow population indicated that some areas with large outflow population might have been underestimated for the infection, such as Henan and Hunan provinces. Further analysis revealed that if the city closure policy was implemented two days earlier, 1420 (95% CI: 1059, 1833) cases could have been prevented, and if two days later, 1462 (95% CI: 1090, 1886) more cases would be possible. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that population movement might be one important trigger for the transmission of 2019-nCoV infection in China, and the policy of city closure is effective to control the epidemic. SN - 1537-6591 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32302377/Population_movement_city_closure_in_Wuhan_and_geographical_expansion_of_the_2019_nCoV_pneumonia_infection_in_China_in_January_2020_ L2 - https://academic.oup.com/cid/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa422 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -
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