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The global impact of noncommunicable diseases: estimates and projections.

Abstract

With the aging of populations in developing countries there is both a demographic and an epidemiological transition which affects the impact of chronic degenerative diseases on the health status of the populations. Demographic transition takes place in countries where there are effective programmes of disease control which allow for survival during the early years of childhood and adolescence. This results in an increase in life expectancy which places larger proportions of the population in the age range (60 years and older) in which chronic degenerative diseases become the major determinants of health status. Epidemiological transition in diseases may also be brought about by shifts in social and economic patterns which favour detrimental changes in risk factors for the chronic degenerative diseases. Such changes may include health-related behaviour which augments dietary consumption of fats and alcohol, increases obesity, increases smoking and decreases physical activity. Such changes in risk-factor levels increase the prevalence of chronic degenerative diseases which manifest themselves at later ages, and for which early preventive actions could be cost-effective. In order to illustrate the impact of both demographic and risk-factor effects, analyses are made of the impact of increases in life expectancy on cause-specific mortality in both developing and developed countries. It is shown that there is great similarity in the effect of major noncommunicable diseases on the life expectancy of adults in both developed and developing countries. The major differences are seen to be in the proportions of deaths expected from such diseases as cancer, diabetes, heart disease, stroke and cirrhosis; but not in the distribution of age at death which is the better measure of disease impact. Demographic analyses, computing indirect estimates of mortality, also demonstrate that there are currently more chronic disease deaths in developing than developed countries and that as expectation of life increases in developing countries the global chronic disease burden will be greatly concentrated in the developing countries. Analyses of risk-factor reduction by feasible intervention strategies, e.g. smoking cessation campaigns, treatment of high blood pressure, using relationships between risk factors and diseases established in longitudinal studies carried out in developed countries, point out that the effect of risk-factor control in long-living populations can be hidden by the dependency of risk factors and various related causes of death, e.g. smoking has an impact on lung cancer, ischaemic heart disease and emphysema, but at different ages.(

ABSTRACT

TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)

Authors+Show Affiliations

Center for Demographic Studies, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina.

Source

MeSH

Actuarial Analysis
Adult
Aged
Chronic Disease
Female
Humans
Life Expectancy
Male
Middle Aged
Morbidity
Mortality
Risk Factors

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.

Language

eng

PubMed ID

3232413

Citation

Manton, K G.. "The Global Impact of Noncommunicable Diseases: Estimates and Projections." World Health Statistics Quarterly. Rapport Trimestriel De Statistiques Sanitaires Mondiales, vol. 41, no. 3-4, 1988, pp. 255-66.
Manton KG. The global impact of noncommunicable diseases: estimates and projections. World Health Stat Q. 1988;41(3-4):255-66.
Manton, K. G. (1988). The global impact of noncommunicable diseases: estimates and projections. World Health Statistics Quarterly. Rapport Trimestriel De Statistiques Sanitaires Mondiales, 41(3-4), pp. 255-66.
Manton KG. The Global Impact of Noncommunicable Diseases: Estimates and Projections. World Health Stat Q. 1988;41(3-4):255-66. PubMed PMID: 3232413.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - The global impact of noncommunicable diseases: estimates and projections. A1 - Manton,K G, PY - 1988/1/1/pubmed PY - 1988/1/1/medline PY - 1988/1/1/entrez KW - Age Specific Death Rate KW - Biology KW - Cardiovascular Effects KW - Cerebrovascular Effects KW - Chronic Diseases KW - Death Rate KW - Demographic Analysis KW - Demographic Factors KW - Developed Countries KW - Developing Countries KW - Diabetes Mellitus KW - Diseases KW - Health KW - Heart Diseases KW - Hepatic Effects KW - Length Of Life KW - Life Expectancy KW - Life Table Method KW - Life Tables KW - Linear Regression KW - Liver Cirrhosis KW - Longitudinal Studies KW - Mortality KW - Neoplasms KW - Population KW - Population Dynamics KW - Public Health KW - Research Methodology KW - Risk Factors KW - Statistical Regression KW - Statistical Studies SP - 255 EP - 66 JF - World health statistics quarterly. Rapport trimestriel de statistiques sanitaires mondiales JO - World Health Stat Q VL - 41 IS - 3-4 N2 - With the aging of populations in developing countries there is both a demographic and an epidemiological transition which affects the impact of chronic degenerative diseases on the health status of the populations. Demographic transition takes place in countries where there are effective programmes of disease control which allow for survival during the early years of childhood and adolescence. This results in an increase in life expectancy which places larger proportions of the population in the age range (60 years and older) in which chronic degenerative diseases become the major determinants of health status. Epidemiological transition in diseases may also be brought about by shifts in social and economic patterns which favour detrimental changes in risk factors for the chronic degenerative diseases. Such changes may include health-related behaviour which augments dietary consumption of fats and alcohol, increases obesity, increases smoking and decreases physical activity. Such changes in risk-factor levels increase the prevalence of chronic degenerative diseases which manifest themselves at later ages, and for which early preventive actions could be cost-effective. In order to illustrate the impact of both demographic and risk-factor effects, analyses are made of the impact of increases in life expectancy on cause-specific mortality in both developing and developed countries. It is shown that there is great similarity in the effect of major noncommunicable diseases on the life expectancy of adults in both developed and developing countries. The major differences are seen to be in the proportions of deaths expected from such diseases as cancer, diabetes, heart disease, stroke and cirrhosis; but not in the distribution of age at death which is the better measure of disease impact. Demographic analyses, computing indirect estimates of mortality, also demonstrate that there are currently more chronic disease deaths in developing than developed countries and that as expectation of life increases in developing countries the global chronic disease burden will be greatly concentrated in the developing countries. Analyses of risk-factor reduction by feasible intervention strategies, e.g. smoking cessation campaigns, treatment of high blood pressure, using relationships between risk factors and diseases established in longitudinal studies carried out in developed countries, point out that the effect of risk-factor control in long-living populations can be hidden by the dependency of risk factors and various related causes of death, e.g. smoking has an impact on lung cancer, ischaemic heart disease and emphysema, but at different ages.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS) SN - 0379-8070 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/3232413/The_global_impact_of_noncommunicable_diseases:_estimates_and_projections_ DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -