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Estimating the instant case fatality rate of COVID-19 in China.
Int J Infect Dis. 2020 Aug; 97:1-6.IJ

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China has been basically controlled. However, the global epidemic of COVID-19 is worsening. We established a method to estimate the instant case fatality rate (CFR) and cure rate of COVID-19 in China.

METHODS

A total of 82 735 confirmed cases released officially by the Chinese authorities from December 8, 2019 to April 18, 2020 were collected. The estimated diagnosis dates of deaths and cured cases were calculated based on the median cure time or median death time of individual cases. Following this, the instant CFR was calculated according to the number of deaths and cured cases on the same estimated diagnosis date.

RESULTS

In China, the instant CFR of COVID-19 was 3.8-14.6% from January 1 to January 17; it then declined gradually and stabilized at 5.7% in April. The average CFR in China was 6.1±2.9%, while the CFR was 1.0±0.4% in China except Hubei Province. The cure rate of COVID-19 was 93.9±2.9% in China, and stabilized at 94.3%, while it was 99.0±0.4% in China except Hubei Province.

CONCLUSIONS

The instant CFR of COVID-19 in China overall was much higher than that in China except Hubei Province. The CFR of COVID-19 in China was underestimated.

Authors+Show Affiliations

School of Basic Medical Sciences, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710061, PR China. Electronic address: yannimi@xjtu.edu.cn.School of Basic Medical Sciences, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710061, PR China. Electronic address: 2079830682@qq.com.School of Basic Medical Sciences, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710061, PR China. Electronic address: clinphar_zjx@stu.xjtu.edu.cn.School of Basic Medical Sciences, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710061, PR China. Electronic address: 18774497502@163.com.School of Basic Medical Sciences, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710061, PR China. Electronic address: m15013270246@163.com.School of Basic Medical Sciences, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710061, PR China. Electronic address: mihuoruoer@163.com.School of Basic Medical Sciences, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710061, PR China. Electronic address: 18835170236@163.com.School of Basic Medical Sciences, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710061, PR China. Electronic address: 284746275@qq.com.Department of Pharmacology, School of Basic Medical Sciences, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710061, PR China. Electronic address: leicao@mail.xjtu.edu.cn.Department of Pharmacology, School of Basic Medical Sciences, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710061, PR China. Electronic address: yxy@xjtu.edu.cn.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32339723

Citation

Mi, Yan-Ni, et al. "Estimating the Instant Case Fatality Rate of COVID-19 in China." International Journal of Infectious Diseases : IJID : Official Publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases, vol. 97, 2020, pp. 1-6.
Mi YN, Huang TT, Zhang JX, et al. Estimating the instant case fatality rate of COVID-19 in China. Int J Infect Dis. 2020;97:1-6.
Mi, Y. N., Huang, T. T., Zhang, J. X., Qin, Q., Gong, Y. X., Liu, S. Y., Xue, H. M., Ning, C. H., Cao, L., & Cao, Y. X. (2020). Estimating the instant case fatality rate of COVID-19 in China. International Journal of Infectious Diseases : IJID : Official Publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases, 97, 1-6. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.04.055
Mi YN, et al. Estimating the Instant Case Fatality Rate of COVID-19 in China. Int J Infect Dis. 2020;97:1-6. PubMed PMID: 32339723.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Estimating the instant case fatality rate of COVID-19 in China. AU - Mi,Yan-Ni, AU - Huang,Ting-Ting, AU - Zhang,Jun-Xia, AU - Qin,Qi, AU - Gong,Ya-Xin, AU - Liu,Si-Yu, AU - Xue,Hui-Min, AU - Ning,Chang-Hua, AU - Cao,Lei, AU - Cao,Yong-Xiao, Y1 - 2020/04/24/ PY - 2020/03/31/received PY - 2020/04/19/revised PY - 2020/04/21/accepted PY - 2020/4/28/pubmed PY - 2020/8/4/medline PY - 2020/4/28/entrez KW - COVID-19 KW - Case fatality rate KW - China KW - Cure rate SP - 1 EP - 6 JF - International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases JO - Int J Infect Dis VL - 97 N2 - OBJECTIVE: The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China has been basically controlled. However, the global epidemic of COVID-19 is worsening. We established a method to estimate the instant case fatality rate (CFR) and cure rate of COVID-19 in China. METHODS: A total of 82 735 confirmed cases released officially by the Chinese authorities from December 8, 2019 to April 18, 2020 were collected. The estimated diagnosis dates of deaths and cured cases were calculated based on the median cure time or median death time of individual cases. Following this, the instant CFR was calculated according to the number of deaths and cured cases on the same estimated diagnosis date. RESULTS: In China, the instant CFR of COVID-19 was 3.8-14.6% from January 1 to January 17; it then declined gradually and stabilized at 5.7% in April. The average CFR in China was 6.1±2.9%, while the CFR was 1.0±0.4% in China except Hubei Province. The cure rate of COVID-19 was 93.9±2.9% in China, and stabilized at 94.3%, while it was 99.0±0.4% in China except Hubei Province. CONCLUSIONS: The instant CFR of COVID-19 in China overall was much higher than that in China except Hubei Province. The CFR of COVID-19 in China was underestimated. SN - 1878-3511 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32339723/Estimating_the_instant_case_fatality_rate_of_COVID_19_in_China_ L2 - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1201-9712(20)30271-X DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -