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Early Transmission Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Nigeria.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Apr 28; 17(9)IJ

Abstract

On 31 December 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) was notified of a novel coronavirus disease in China that was later named COVID-19. On 11 March 2020, the outbreak of COVID-19 was declared a pandemic. The first instance of the virus in Nigeria was documented on 27 February 2020. This study provides a preliminary epidemiological analysis of the first 45 days of COVID-19 outbreak in Nigeria. We estimated the early transmissibility via time-varying reproduction number based on the Bayesian method that incorporates uncertainty in the distribution of serial interval (time interval between symptoms onset in an infected individual and the infector), and adjusted for disease importation. By 11 April 2020, 318 confirmed cases and 10 deaths from COVID-19 have occurred in Nigeria. At day 45, the exponential growth rate was 0.07 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.05-0.10) with a doubling time of 9.84 days (95% CI: 7.28-15.18). Separately for imported cases (travel-related) and local cases, the doubling time was 12.88 days and 2.86 days, respectively. Furthermore, we estimated the reproduction number for each day of the outbreak using a three-weekly window while adjusting for imported cases. The estimated reproduction number was 4.98 (95% CrI: 2.65-8.41) at day 22 (19 March 2020), peaking at 5.61 (95% credible interval (CrI): 3.83-7.88) at day 25 (22 March 2020). The median reproduction number over the study period was 2.71 and the latest value on 11 April 2020, was 1.42 (95% CrI: 1.26-1.58). These 45-day estimates suggested that cases of COVID-19 in Nigeria have been remarkably lower than expected and the preparedness to detect needs to be shifted to stop local transmission.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Townsville 4811, Australia.Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Townsville 4811, Australia.Biostatistics and Spatial Statistics Research Group, Department of Statistics, Federal University of Technology, Akure 340271, Nigeria.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32353991

Citation

Adegboye, Oyelola A., et al. "Early Transmission Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Nigeria." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, vol. 17, no. 9, 2020.
Adegboye OA, Adekunle AI, Gayawan E. Early Transmission Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Nigeria. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020;17(9).
Adegboye, O. A., Adekunle, A. I., & Gayawan, E. (2020). Early Transmission Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Nigeria. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(9). https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17093054
Adegboye OA, Adekunle AI, Gayawan E. Early Transmission Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Nigeria. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Apr 28;17(9) PubMed PMID: 32353991.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Early Transmission Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Nigeria. AU - Adegboye,Oyelola A, AU - Adekunle,Adeshina I, AU - Gayawan,Ezra, Y1 - 2020/04/28/ PY - 2020/4/18/received PY - 2020/4/27/revised PY - 2020/4/27/accepted PY - 2020/5/2/entrez PY - 2020/5/2/pubmed PY - 2020/5/7/medline KW - Africa KW - COVID-19 KW - Nigeria KW - coronavirus KW - importation KW - infectious diseases KW - reproduction number KW - travel JF - International journal of environmental research and public health JO - Int J Environ Res Public Health VL - 17 IS - 9 N2 - On 31 December 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) was notified of a novel coronavirus disease in China that was later named COVID-19. On 11 March 2020, the outbreak of COVID-19 was declared a pandemic. The first instance of the virus in Nigeria was documented on 27 February 2020. This study provides a preliminary epidemiological analysis of the first 45 days of COVID-19 outbreak in Nigeria. We estimated the early transmissibility via time-varying reproduction number based on the Bayesian method that incorporates uncertainty in the distribution of serial interval (time interval between symptoms onset in an infected individual and the infector), and adjusted for disease importation. By 11 April 2020, 318 confirmed cases and 10 deaths from COVID-19 have occurred in Nigeria. At day 45, the exponential growth rate was 0.07 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.05-0.10) with a doubling time of 9.84 days (95% CI: 7.28-15.18). Separately for imported cases (travel-related) and local cases, the doubling time was 12.88 days and 2.86 days, respectively. Furthermore, we estimated the reproduction number for each day of the outbreak using a three-weekly window while adjusting for imported cases. The estimated reproduction number was 4.98 (95% CrI: 2.65-8.41) at day 22 (19 March 2020), peaking at 5.61 (95% credible interval (CrI): 3.83-7.88) at day 25 (22 March 2020). The median reproduction number over the study period was 2.71 and the latest value on 11 April 2020, was 1.42 (95% CrI: 1.26-1.58). These 45-day estimates suggested that cases of COVID-19 in Nigeria have been remarkably lower than expected and the preparedness to detect needs to be shifted to stop local transmission. SN - 1660-4601 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32353991/Early_Transmission_Dynamics_of_Novel_Coronavirus__COVID_19__in_Nigeria_ DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -