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Mathematical Modelling to Assess the Impact of Lockdown on COVID-19 Transmission in India: Model Development and Validation.
JMIR Public Health Surveill. 2020 05 07; 6(2):e19368.JP

Abstract

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization has declared the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) to be a public health emergency; at present, India is facing a major threat of community spread. We developed a mathematical model for investigating and predicting the effects of lockdown on future COVID-19 cases with a specific focus on India.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this work was to develop and validate a mathematical model and to assess the impact of various lockdown scenarios on COVID-19 transmission in India.

METHODS

A model consisting of a framework of ordinary differential equations was developed by incorporating the actual reported cases in 14 countries. After validation, the model was applied to predict COVID-19 transmission in India for different intervention scenarios in terms of lockdown for 4, 14, 21, 42, and 60 days. We also assessed the situations of enhanced exposure due to aggregation of individuals in transit stations and shopping malls before the lockdown.

RESULTS

The developed model is efficient in predicting the number of COVID-19 cases compared to the actual reported cases in 14 countries. For India, the model predicted marked reductions in cases for the intervention periods of 14 and 21 days of lockdown and significant reduction for 42 days of lockdown. Such intervention exceeding 42 days does not result in measurable improvement. Finally, for the scenario of "panic shopping" or situations where there is a sudden increase in the factors leading to higher exposure to infection, the model predicted an exponential transmission, resulting in failure of the considered intervention strategy.

CONCLUSIONS

Implementation of a strict lockdown for a period of at least 21 days is expected to reduce the transmission of COVID-19. However, a further extension of up to 42 days is required to significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19 in India. Any relaxation in the lockdown may lead to exponential transmission, resulting in a heavy burden on the health care system in the country.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Department of Instrumentation Engineering, Madras Institute of Technology Campus, Anna University, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India.Department of Instrumentation Engineering, Madras Institute of Technology Campus, Anna University, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32365045

Citation

Ambikapathy, Bakiya, and Kamalanand Krishnamurthy. "Mathematical Modelling to Assess the Impact of Lockdown On COVID-19 Transmission in India: Model Development and Validation." JMIR Public Health and Surveillance, vol. 6, no. 2, 2020, pp. e19368.
Ambikapathy B, Krishnamurthy K. Mathematical Modelling to Assess the Impact of Lockdown on COVID-19 Transmission in India: Model Development and Validation. JMIR Public Health Surveill. 2020;6(2):e19368.
Ambikapathy, B., & Krishnamurthy, K. (2020). Mathematical Modelling to Assess the Impact of Lockdown on COVID-19 Transmission in India: Model Development and Validation. JMIR Public Health and Surveillance, 6(2), e19368. https://doi.org/10.2196/19368
Ambikapathy B, Krishnamurthy K. Mathematical Modelling to Assess the Impact of Lockdown On COVID-19 Transmission in India: Model Development and Validation. JMIR Public Health Surveill. 2020 05 7;6(2):e19368. PubMed PMID: 32365045.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Mathematical Modelling to Assess the Impact of Lockdown on COVID-19 Transmission in India: Model Development and Validation. AU - Ambikapathy,Bakiya, AU - Krishnamurthy,Kamalanand, Y1 - 2020/05/07/ PY - 2020/04/15/received PY - 2020/05/01/accepted PY - 2020/04/25/revised PY - 2020/5/5/pubmed PY - 2020/5/14/medline PY - 2020/5/5/entrez KW - coronavirus KW - covid-19 KW - epidemic KW - mathematical modelling KW - pandemic KW - sars SP - e19368 EP - e19368 JF - JMIR public health and surveillance JO - JMIR Public Health Surveill VL - 6 IS - 2 N2 - BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization has declared the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) to be a public health emergency; at present, India is facing a major threat of community spread. We developed a mathematical model for investigating and predicting the effects of lockdown on future COVID-19 cases with a specific focus on India. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this work was to develop and validate a mathematical model and to assess the impact of various lockdown scenarios on COVID-19 transmission in India. METHODS: A model consisting of a framework of ordinary differential equations was developed by incorporating the actual reported cases in 14 countries. After validation, the model was applied to predict COVID-19 transmission in India for different intervention scenarios in terms of lockdown for 4, 14, 21, 42, and 60 days. We also assessed the situations of enhanced exposure due to aggregation of individuals in transit stations and shopping malls before the lockdown. RESULTS: The developed model is efficient in predicting the number of COVID-19 cases compared to the actual reported cases in 14 countries. For India, the model predicted marked reductions in cases for the intervention periods of 14 and 21 days of lockdown and significant reduction for 42 days of lockdown. Such intervention exceeding 42 days does not result in measurable improvement. Finally, for the scenario of "panic shopping" or situations where there is a sudden increase in the factors leading to higher exposure to infection, the model predicted an exponential transmission, resulting in failure of the considered intervention strategy. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of a strict lockdown for a period of at least 21 days is expected to reduce the transmission of COVID-19. However, a further extension of up to 42 days is required to significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19 in India. Any relaxation in the lockdown may lead to exponential transmission, resulting in a heavy burden on the health care system in the country. SN - 2369-2960 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32365045/Mathematical_Modelling_to_Assess_the_Impact_of_Lockdown_on_COVID_19_Transmission_in_India:_Model_Development_and_Validation_ L2 - https://publichealth.jmir.org/2020/2/e19368/ DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -