Tags

Type your tag names separated by a space and hit enter

Estimated Demand for US Hospital Inpatient and Intensive Care Unit Beds for Patients With COVID-19 Based on Comparisons With Wuhan and Guangzhou, China.
JAMA Netw Open. 2020 05 01; 3(5):e208297.JN

Abstract

Importance

Sustained spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has happened in major US cities. Capacity needs in cities in China could inform the planning of local health care resources.

Objectives

To describe and compare the intensive care unit (ICU) and inpatient bed needs for patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in 2 cities in China to estimate the peak ICU bed needs in US cities if an outbreak equivalent to that in Wuhan occurs.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This comparative effectiveness study analyzed the confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Wuhan and Guangzhou, China, from January 10 to February 29, 2020.

Exposures

Timing of disease control measures relative to timing of SARS-CoV-2 community spread.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Number of critical and severe patient-days and peak number of patients with critical and severe illness during the study period.

Results

In Wuhan, strict disease control measures were implemented 6 weeks after sustained local transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Between January 10 and February 29, 2020, patients with COVID-19 accounted for a median (interquartile range) of 429 (25-1143) patients in the ICU and 1521 (111-7202) inpatients with serious illness each day. During the epidemic peak, 19 425 patients (24.5 per 10 000 adults) were hospitalized, 9689 (12.2 per 10 000 adults) were considered in serious condition, and 2087 (2.6 per 10 000 adults) needed critical care per day. In Guangzhou, strict disease control measures were implemented within 1 week of case importation. Between January 24 and February 29, COVID-19 accounted for a median (interquartile range) of 9 (7-12) patients in the ICU and 17 (15-26) inpatients with serious illness each day. During the epidemic peak, 15 patients were in critical condition and 38 were classified as having serious illness. The projected number of prevalent critically ill patients at the peak of a Wuhan-like outbreak in US cities was estimated to range from 2.2 to 4.4 per 10 000 adults, depending on differences in age distribution and comorbidity (ie, hypertension) prevalence.

Conclusions and Relevance

Even after the lockdown of Wuhan on January 23, the number of patients with serious COVID-19 illness continued to rise, exceeding local hospitalization and ICU capacities for at least a month. Plans are urgently needed to mitigate the consequences of COVID-19 outbreaks on the local health care systems in US cities.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Boston, Massachusetts.Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and the Department of Environmental Health and Engineering, Baltimore, Maryland.Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts. Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China.Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts.Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and the Department of Environmental Health and Engineering, Baltimore, Maryland.Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Boston, Massachusetts.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32374400

Citation

Li, Ruoran, et al. "Estimated Demand for US Hospital Inpatient and Intensive Care Unit Beds for Patients With COVID-19 Based On Comparisons With Wuhan and Guangzhou, China." JAMA Network Open, vol. 3, no. 5, 2020, pp. e208297.
Li R, Rivers C, Tan Q, et al. Estimated Demand for US Hospital Inpatient and Intensive Care Unit Beds for Patients With COVID-19 Based on Comparisons With Wuhan and Guangzhou, China. JAMA Netw Open. 2020;3(5):e208297.
Li, R., Rivers, C., Tan, Q., Murray, M. B., Toner, E., & Lipsitch, M. (2020). Estimated Demand for US Hospital Inpatient and Intensive Care Unit Beds for Patients With COVID-19 Based on Comparisons With Wuhan and Guangzhou, China. JAMA Network Open, 3(5), e208297. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.8297
Li R, et al. Estimated Demand for US Hospital Inpatient and Intensive Care Unit Beds for Patients With COVID-19 Based On Comparisons With Wuhan and Guangzhou, China. JAMA Netw Open. 2020 05 1;3(5):e208297. PubMed PMID: 32374400.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Estimated Demand for US Hospital Inpatient and Intensive Care Unit Beds for Patients With COVID-19 Based on Comparisons With Wuhan and Guangzhou, China. AU - Li,Ruoran, AU - Rivers,Caitlin, AU - Tan,Qi, AU - Murray,Megan B, AU - Toner,Eric, AU - Lipsitch,Marc, Y1 - 2020/05/01/ PY - 2020/5/7/entrez PY - 2020/5/7/pubmed PY - 2020/5/13/medline SP - e208297 EP - e208297 JF - JAMA network open JO - JAMA Netw Open VL - 3 IS - 5 N2 - Importance: Sustained spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has happened in major US cities. Capacity needs in cities in China could inform the planning of local health care resources. Objectives: To describe and compare the intensive care unit (ICU) and inpatient bed needs for patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in 2 cities in China to estimate the peak ICU bed needs in US cities if an outbreak equivalent to that in Wuhan occurs. Design, Setting, and Participants: This comparative effectiveness study analyzed the confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Wuhan and Guangzhou, China, from January 10 to February 29, 2020. Exposures: Timing of disease control measures relative to timing of SARS-CoV-2 community spread. Main Outcomes and Measures: Number of critical and severe patient-days and peak number of patients with critical and severe illness during the study period. Results: In Wuhan, strict disease control measures were implemented 6 weeks after sustained local transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Between January 10 and February 29, 2020, patients with COVID-19 accounted for a median (interquartile range) of 429 (25-1143) patients in the ICU and 1521 (111-7202) inpatients with serious illness each day. During the epidemic peak, 19 425 patients (24.5 per 10 000 adults) were hospitalized, 9689 (12.2 per 10 000 adults) were considered in serious condition, and 2087 (2.6 per 10 000 adults) needed critical care per day. In Guangzhou, strict disease control measures were implemented within 1 week of case importation. Between January 24 and February 29, COVID-19 accounted for a median (interquartile range) of 9 (7-12) patients in the ICU and 17 (15-26) inpatients with serious illness each day. During the epidemic peak, 15 patients were in critical condition and 38 were classified as having serious illness. The projected number of prevalent critically ill patients at the peak of a Wuhan-like outbreak in US cities was estimated to range from 2.2 to 4.4 per 10 000 adults, depending on differences in age distribution and comorbidity (ie, hypertension) prevalence. Conclusions and Relevance: Even after the lockdown of Wuhan on January 23, the number of patients with serious COVID-19 illness continued to rise, exceeding local hospitalization and ICU capacities for at least a month. Plans are urgently needed to mitigate the consequences of COVID-19 outbreaks on the local health care systems in US cities. SN - 2574-3805 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32374400/Estimated_Demand_for_US_Hospital_Inpatient_and_Intensive_Care_Unit_Beds_for_Patients_With_COVID_19_Based_on_Comparisons_With_Wuhan_and_Guangzhou_China_ L2 - https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.8297 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -