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Risk estimation of the SARS-CoV-2 acute respiratory disease outbreak outside China.
Theor Biol Med Model. 2020 06 05; 17(1):9.TB

Abstract

BACKGROUND

On December 31, 2019, the World Health Organization was alerted to the occurrence of cases of pneumonia in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, that were caused by an unknown virus, which was later identified as a coronavirus and named the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). We aimed to estimate the reproductive number of SARS-CoV-2 in the Hubei Province and evaluate the risk of an acute respiratory coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak outside China by using a mathematical model and stochastic simulations.

RESULTS

We constructed a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics, estimated the rate of transmission, and calculated the reproductive number in Hubei Province by using case-report data from January 11 to February 6, 2020. The possible number of secondary cases outside China was estimated by stochastic simulations in various scenarios of reductions in the duration to quarantine and rate of transmission. The rate of transmission was estimated as 0.8238 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.8095-0.8382), and the basic reproductive number as 4.1192 (95% CI 4.0473-4.1912). Assuming the same rate of transmission as in Hubei Province, the possibility of no local transmission is 54.9% with a 24-h quarantine strategy, and the possibility of more than 20 local transmission cases is 7% outside of China.

CONCLUSION

The reproductive number for SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics is significantly higher compared to that of the previous SARS epidemic in China. This implies that human-to-human transmission is a significant factor for contagion in Hubei Province. Results of the stochastic simulation emphasize the role of quarantine implementation, which is critical to prevent and control the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak outside China.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Department of Mathematics, Konkuk University, 120 Neungdong-ro, Gwangjin-gu, Seoul, 05029, South Korea.Department of Cancer Control and Population Health, Graduate School of Cancer Science and Policy, National Cancer Center, 323 Ilsan-ro, Ilsandong-gu, Goyang, 10408, South Korea.Department of Mathematics, Konkuk University, 120 Neungdong-ro, Gwangjin-gu, Seoul, 05029, South Korea.Department of Cancer Control and Population Health, Graduate School of Cancer Science and Policy, National Cancer Center, 323 Ilsan-ro, Ilsandong-gu, Goyang, 10408, South Korea.Department of Mathematics, Konkuk University, 120 Neungdong-ro, Gwangjin-gu, Seoul, 05029, South Korea. junge@konkuk.ac.kr.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32498721

Citation

Kim, Soyoung, et al. "Risk Estimation of the SARS-CoV-2 Acute Respiratory Disease Outbreak Outside China." Theoretical Biology & Medical Modelling, vol. 17, no. 1, 2020, p. 9.
Kim S, Choi S, Ko Y, et al. Risk estimation of the SARS-CoV-2 acute respiratory disease outbreak outside China. Theor Biol Med Model. 2020;17(1):9.
Kim, S., Choi, S., Ko, Y., Ki, M., & Jung, E. (2020). Risk estimation of the SARS-CoV-2 acute respiratory disease outbreak outside China. Theoretical Biology & Medical Modelling, 17(1), 9. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12976-020-00127-6
Kim S, et al. Risk Estimation of the SARS-CoV-2 Acute Respiratory Disease Outbreak Outside China. Theor Biol Med Model. 2020 06 5;17(1):9. PubMed PMID: 32498721.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Risk estimation of the SARS-CoV-2 acute respiratory disease outbreak outside China. AU - Kim,Soyoung, AU - Choi,Sunhwa, AU - Ko,Youngsuk, AU - Ki,Moran, AU - Jung,Eunok, Y1 - 2020/06/05/ PY - 2020/02/28/received PY - 2020/05/17/accepted PY - 2020/6/6/entrez PY - 2020/6/6/pubmed PY - 2020/6/18/medline KW - COVID-19 KW - Mathematical model KW - Reproductive number KW - Risk estimation KW - SARS-CoV-2 KW - Stochastic simulation SP - 9 EP - 9 JF - Theoretical biology & medical modelling JO - Theor Biol Med Model VL - 17 IS - 1 N2 - BACKGROUND: On December 31, 2019, the World Health Organization was alerted to the occurrence of cases of pneumonia in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, that were caused by an unknown virus, which was later identified as a coronavirus and named the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). We aimed to estimate the reproductive number of SARS-CoV-2 in the Hubei Province and evaluate the risk of an acute respiratory coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak outside China by using a mathematical model and stochastic simulations. RESULTS: We constructed a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics, estimated the rate of transmission, and calculated the reproductive number in Hubei Province by using case-report data from January 11 to February 6, 2020. The possible number of secondary cases outside China was estimated by stochastic simulations in various scenarios of reductions in the duration to quarantine and rate of transmission. The rate of transmission was estimated as 0.8238 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.8095-0.8382), and the basic reproductive number as 4.1192 (95% CI 4.0473-4.1912). Assuming the same rate of transmission as in Hubei Province, the possibility of no local transmission is 54.9% with a 24-h quarantine strategy, and the possibility of more than 20 local transmission cases is 7% outside of China. CONCLUSION: The reproductive number for SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics is significantly higher compared to that of the previous SARS epidemic in China. This implies that human-to-human transmission is a significant factor for contagion in Hubei Province. Results of the stochastic simulation emphasize the role of quarantine implementation, which is critical to prevent and control the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak outside China. SN - 1742-4682 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32498721/Risk_estimation_of_the_SARS_CoV_2_acute_respiratory_disease_outbreak_outside_China_ L2 - https://tbiomed.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12976-020-00127-6 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -