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Assessing spread risk of Wuhan novel coronavirus within and beyond China, January-April 2020: a travel network-based modelling study.
medRxiv. 2020 Feb 05M

Abstract

BACKGROUND

A novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) emerged in Wuhan City, China, at the end of 2019 and has caused an outbreak of human-to-human transmission with a Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared by the World Health Organization on January 30, 2020.

AIM

We aimed to estimate the potential risk and geographic range of Wuhan novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) spread within and beyond China from January through to April, 2020.

METHODS

A series of domestic and international travel network-based connectivity and risk analyses were performed, by using de-identified and aggregated mobile phone data, air passenger itinerary data, and case reports.

RESULTS

The cordon sanitaire of Wuhan is likely to have occurred during the latter stages of peak population numbers leaving the city before Lunar New Year (LNY), with travellers departing into neighbouring cities and other megacities in China. We estimated that 59,912 air passengers, of which 834 (95% UI: 478 - 1349) had 2019-nCoV infection, travelled from Wuhan to 382 cities outside of mainland China during the two weeks prior to the lockdown of Wuhan. The majority of these cities were in Asia, but major hubs in Europe, the US and Australia were also prominent, with strong correlation seen between predicted importation risks and reported cases. Because significant spread has already occurred, a large number of airline travellers (3.3 million under the scenario of 75% travel reduction from normal volumes) may be required to be screened at origin high-risk cities in China and destinations across the globe for the following three months of February to April, 2020 to effectively limit spread beyond its current extent.

CONCLUSION

Further spread of 2019-nCoV within China and international exportation is likely to occur. All countries, especially vulnerable regions, should be prepared for efforts to contain the 2019-nCoV infection.

Authors

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Pub Type(s)

Preprint

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32511631

Citation

Lai, Shengjie, et al. "Assessing Spread Risk of Wuhan Novel Coronavirus Within and Beyond China, January-April 2020: a Travel Network-based Modelling Study." MedRxiv : the Preprint Server for Health Sciences, 2020.
Lai S, Bogoch I, Ruktanonchai N, et al. Assessing spread risk of Wuhan novel coronavirus within and beyond China, January-April 2020: a travel network-based modelling study. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences. 2020.
Lai, S., Bogoch, I., Ruktanonchai, N., Watts, A., Lu, X., Yang, W., Yu, H., Khan, K., & Tatem, A. J. (2020). Assessing spread risk of Wuhan novel coronavirus within and beyond China, January-April 2020: a travel network-based modelling study. MedRxiv : the Preprint Server for Health Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020479
Lai S, et al. Assessing Spread Risk of Wuhan Novel Coronavirus Within and Beyond China, January-April 2020: a Travel Network-based Modelling Study. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences. 2020 Feb 5; PubMed PMID: 32511631.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Assessing spread risk of Wuhan novel coronavirus within and beyond China, January-April 2020: a travel network-based modelling study. AU - Lai,Shengjie, AU - Bogoch,Isaac, AU - Ruktanonchai,Nick, AU - Watts,Alexander, AU - Lu,Xin, AU - Yang,Weizhong, AU - Yu,Hongjie, AU - Khan,Kamran, AU - Tatem,Andrew J, Y1 - 2020/02/05/ PY - 2020/6/9/entrez PY - 2020/6/9/pubmed PY - 2020/6/9/medline JF - medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences N2 - BACKGROUND: A novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) emerged in Wuhan City, China, at the end of 2019 and has caused an outbreak of human-to-human transmission with a Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared by the World Health Organization on January 30, 2020. AIM: We aimed to estimate the potential risk and geographic range of Wuhan novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) spread within and beyond China from January through to April, 2020. METHODS: A series of domestic and international travel network-based connectivity and risk analyses were performed, by using de-identified and aggregated mobile phone data, air passenger itinerary data, and case reports. RESULTS: The cordon sanitaire of Wuhan is likely to have occurred during the latter stages of peak population numbers leaving the city before Lunar New Year (LNY), with travellers departing into neighbouring cities and other megacities in China. We estimated that 59,912 air passengers, of which 834 (95% UI: 478 - 1349) had 2019-nCoV infection, travelled from Wuhan to 382 cities outside of mainland China during the two weeks prior to the lockdown of Wuhan. The majority of these cities were in Asia, but major hubs in Europe, the US and Australia were also prominent, with strong correlation seen between predicted importation risks and reported cases. Because significant spread has already occurred, a large number of airline travellers (3.3 million under the scenario of 75% travel reduction from normal volumes) may be required to be screened at origin high-risk cities in China and destinations across the globe for the following three months of February to April, 2020 to effectively limit spread beyond its current extent. CONCLUSION: Further spread of 2019-nCoV within China and international exportation is likely to occur. All countries, especially vulnerable regions, should be prepared for efforts to contain the 2019-nCoV infection. UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32511631/Assessing_spread_risk_of_Wuhan_novel_coronavirus_within_and_beyond_China_January_April_2020:_a_travel_network_based_modelling_study_ L2 - https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020479 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -
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