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Temperature, Humidity, and Latitude Analysis to Estimate Potential Spread and Seasonality of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19).
JAMA Netw Open. 2020 06 01; 3(6):e2011834.JN

Abstract

Importance

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection has resulted in a global crisis. Investigating the potential association of climate and seasonality with the spread of this infection could aid in preventive and surveillance strategies.

Objective

To examine the association of climate with the spread of COVID-19 infection.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study examined climate data from 50 cities worldwide with and without substantial community spread of COVID-19. Eight cities with substantial spread of COVID-19 (Wuhan, China; Tokyo, Japan; Daegu, South Korea; Qom, Iran; Milan, Italy; Paris, France; Seattle, US; and Madrid, Spain) were compared with 42 cities that have not been affected or did not have substantial community spread. Data were collected from January to March 10, 2020.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Substantial community transmission was defined as at least 10 reported deaths in a country as of March 10, 2020. Climate data (latitude, mean 2-m temperature, mean specific humidity, and mean relative humidity) were obtained from ERA-5 reanalysis.

Results

The 8 cities with substantial community spread as of March 10, 2020, were located on a narrow band, roughly on the 30° N to 50° N corridor. They had consistently similar weather patterns, consisting of mean temperatures of between 5 and 11 °C, combined with low specific humidity (3-6 g/kg) and low absolute humidity (4-7 g/m3). There was a lack of substantial community establishment in expected locations based on proximity. For example, while Wuhan, China (30.8° N) had 3136 deaths and 80 757 cases, Moscow, Russia (56.0° N), had 0 deaths and 10 cases and Hanoi, Vietnam (21.2° N), had 0 deaths and 31 cases.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, the distribution of substantial community outbreaks of COVID-19 along restricted latitude, temperature, and humidity measurements was consistent with the behavior of a seasonal respiratory virus. Using weather modeling, it may be possible to estimate the regions most likely to be at a higher risk of substantial community spread of COVID-19 in the upcoming weeks, allowing for concentration of public health efforts on surveillance and containment.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Institute of Human Virology, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore. Global Virus Network, Baltimore, Maryland.Persian BayanGene Research and Training Center, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran.Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park.Infectious Diseases and Tropical Medicine Research, Shaheed Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park. The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, Virginia.Institute of Human Virology, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore. Global Virus Network, Baltimore, Maryland.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32525550

Citation

Sajadi, Mohammad M., et al. "Temperature, Humidity, and Latitude Analysis to Estimate Potential Spread and Seasonality of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)." JAMA Network Open, vol. 3, no. 6, 2020, pp. e2011834.
Sajadi MM, Habibzadeh P, Vintzileos A, et al. Temperature, Humidity, and Latitude Analysis to Estimate Potential Spread and Seasonality of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). JAMA Netw Open. 2020;3(6):e2011834.
Sajadi, M. M., Habibzadeh, P., Vintzileos, A., Shokouhi, S., Miralles-Wilhelm, F., & Amoroso, A. (2020). Temperature, Humidity, and Latitude Analysis to Estimate Potential Spread and Seasonality of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). JAMA Network Open, 3(6), e2011834. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.11834
Sajadi MM, et al. Temperature, Humidity, and Latitude Analysis to Estimate Potential Spread and Seasonality of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). JAMA Netw Open. 2020 06 1;3(6):e2011834. PubMed PMID: 32525550.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Temperature, Humidity, and Latitude Analysis to Estimate Potential Spread and Seasonality of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). AU - Sajadi,Mohammad M, AU - Habibzadeh,Parham, AU - Vintzileos,Augustin, AU - Shokouhi,Shervin, AU - Miralles-Wilhelm,Fernando, AU - Amoroso,Anthony, Y1 - 2020/06/01/ PY - 2020/6/12/entrez PY - 2020/6/12/pubmed PY - 2020/7/1/medline SP - e2011834 EP - e2011834 JF - JAMA network open JO - JAMA Netw Open VL - 3 IS - 6 N2 - Importance: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection has resulted in a global crisis. Investigating the potential association of climate and seasonality with the spread of this infection could aid in preventive and surveillance strategies. Objective: To examine the association of climate with the spread of COVID-19 infection. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study examined climate data from 50 cities worldwide with and without substantial community spread of COVID-19. Eight cities with substantial spread of COVID-19 (Wuhan, China; Tokyo, Japan; Daegu, South Korea; Qom, Iran; Milan, Italy; Paris, France; Seattle, US; and Madrid, Spain) were compared with 42 cities that have not been affected or did not have substantial community spread. Data were collected from January to March 10, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: Substantial community transmission was defined as at least 10 reported deaths in a country as of March 10, 2020. Climate data (latitude, mean 2-m temperature, mean specific humidity, and mean relative humidity) were obtained from ERA-5 reanalysis. Results: The 8 cities with substantial community spread as of March 10, 2020, were located on a narrow band, roughly on the 30° N to 50° N corridor. They had consistently similar weather patterns, consisting of mean temperatures of between 5 and 11 °C, combined with low specific humidity (3-6 g/kg) and low absolute humidity (4-7 g/m3). There was a lack of substantial community establishment in expected locations based on proximity. For example, while Wuhan, China (30.8° N) had 3136 deaths and 80 757 cases, Moscow, Russia (56.0° N), had 0 deaths and 10 cases and Hanoi, Vietnam (21.2° N), had 0 deaths and 31 cases. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, the distribution of substantial community outbreaks of COVID-19 along restricted latitude, temperature, and humidity measurements was consistent with the behavior of a seasonal respiratory virus. Using weather modeling, it may be possible to estimate the regions most likely to be at a higher risk of substantial community spread of COVID-19 in the upcoming weeks, allowing for concentration of public health efforts on surveillance and containment. SN - 2574-3805 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32525550/Temperature_Humidity_and_Latitude_Analysis_to_Estimate_Potential_Spread_and_Seasonality_of_Coronavirus_Disease_2019__COVID_19__ DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -