Tags

Type your tag names separated by a space and hit enter

The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low- and middle-income countries.
Science. 2020 Jun 12 [Online ahead of print]Sci

Abstract

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic poses a severe threat to public health worldwide. We combine data on demography, contact patterns, disease severity, and health care capacity and quality to understand its impact and inform strategies for its control. Younger populations in lower income countries may reduce overall risk but limited health system capacity coupled with closer inter-generational contact largely negates this benefit. Mitigation strategies that slow but do not interrupt transmission will still lead to COVID-19 epidemics rapidly overwhelming health systems, with substantial excess deaths in lower income countries due to the poorer health care available. Of countries that have undertaken suppression to date, lower income countries have acted earlier. However, this will need to be maintained or triggered more frequently in these settings to keep below available health capacity, with associated detrimental consequences for the wider health, well-being and economies of these countries.

Authors+Show Affiliations

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK. patrick.walker@imperial.ac.uk a.ghani@imperial.ac.uk neil.ferguson@imperial.ac.uk.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK. Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, Warren Alpert Medical School, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK. Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK. Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK. patrick.walker@imperial.ac.uk a.ghani@imperial.ac.uk neil.ferguson@imperial.ac.uk.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK. patrick.walker@imperial.ac.uk a.ghani@imperial.ac.uk neil.ferguson@imperial.ac.uk.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32532802

Citation

Walker, Patrick G T., et al. "The Impact of COVID-19 and Strategies for Mitigation and Suppression in Low- and Middle-income Countries." Science (New York, N.Y.), 2020.
Walker PGT, Whittaker C, Watson OJ, et al. The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low- and middle-income countries. Science. 2020.
Walker, P. G. T., Whittaker, C., Watson, O. J., Baguelin, M., Winskill, P., Hamlet, A., Djafaara, B. A., Cucunubá, Z., Olivera Mesa, D., Green, W., Thompson, H., Nayagam, S., Ainslie, K. E. C., Bhatia, S., Bhatt, S., Boonyasiri, A., Boyd, O., Brazeau, N. F., Cattarino, L., ... Ghani, A. C. (2020). The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low- and middle-income countries. Science (New York, N.Y.). https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abc0035
Walker PGT, et al. The Impact of COVID-19 and Strategies for Mitigation and Suppression in Low- and Middle-income Countries. Science. 2020 Jun 12; PubMed PMID: 32532802.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low- and middle-income countries. AU - Walker,Patrick G T, AU - Whittaker,Charles, AU - Watson,Oliver J, AU - Baguelin,Marc, AU - Winskill,Peter, AU - Hamlet,Arran, AU - Djafaara,Bimandra A, AU - Cucunubá,Zulma, AU - Olivera Mesa,Daniela, AU - Green,Will, AU - Thompson,Hayley, AU - Nayagam,Shevanthi, AU - Ainslie,Kylie E C, AU - Bhatia,Sangeeta, AU - Bhatt,Samir, AU - Boonyasiri,Adhiratha, AU - Boyd,Olivia, AU - Brazeau,Nicholas F, AU - Cattarino,Lorenzo, AU - Cuomo-Dannenburg,Gina, AU - Dighe,Amy, AU - Donnelly,Christl A, AU - Dorigatti,Ilaria, AU - van Elsland,Sabine L, AU - FitzJohn,Rich, AU - Fu,Han, AU - Gaythorpe,Katy A M, AU - Geidelberg,Lily, AU - Grassly,Nicholas, AU - Haw,David, AU - Hayes,Sarah, AU - Hinsley,Wes, AU - Imai,Natsuko, AU - Jorgensen,David, AU - Knock,Edward, AU - Laydon,Daniel, AU - Mishra,Swapnil, AU - Nedjati-Gilani,Gemma, AU - Okell,Lucy C, AU - Unwin,H Juliette, AU - Verity,Robert, AU - Vollmer,Michaela, AU - Walters,Caroline E, AU - Wang,Haowei, AU - Wang,Yuanrong, AU - Xi,Xiaoyue, AU - Lalloo,David G, AU - Ferguson,Neil M, AU - Ghani,Azra C, Y1 - 2020/06/12/ PY - 2020/04/01/received PY - 2020/06/09/accepted PY - 2020/6/14/entrez JF - Science (New York, N.Y.) JO - Science N2 - The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic poses a severe threat to public health worldwide. We combine data on demography, contact patterns, disease severity, and health care capacity and quality to understand its impact and inform strategies for its control. Younger populations in lower income countries may reduce overall risk but limited health system capacity coupled with closer inter-generational contact largely negates this benefit. Mitigation strategies that slow but do not interrupt transmission will still lead to COVID-19 epidemics rapidly overwhelming health systems, with substantial excess deaths in lower income countries due to the poorer health care available. Of countries that have undertaken suppression to date, lower income countries have acted earlier. However, this will need to be maintained or triggered more frequently in these settings to keep below available health capacity, with associated detrimental consequences for the wider health, well-being and economies of these countries. SN - 1095-9203 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32532802/full_citation L2 - http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/pmidlookup?view=long&pmid=32532802 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -
Try the Free App:
Prime PubMed app for iOS iPhone iPad
Prime PubMed app for Android
Prime PubMed is provided
free to individuals by:
Unbound Medicine.