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DISPERSION OF A NEW CORONAVIRUS SARS-COV-2 BY AIRLINES IN 2020: TEMPORAL ESTIMATES OF THE OUTBREAK IN MEXICO.
Rev Invest Clin. 2020; 72(3):138-143.RI

Abstract

Background

On January 23, 2020, China imposed a quarantine on the city of Wuhan to contain the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. Regardless of this measure, the new infection has spread to several countries around the world.

Objective

We developed a method to study the dissemination of this infection by airline routes and provide estimations of the time of arrival of the outbreak to different cities.

Methods

Using the Kermack and McKendrick model complemented with diffusion on a graph composed of nodes and edges, we made an analysis of COVID-19 dispersion to other cities by air travel.

Results

The estimation was accurate in that it was possible to predict in the middle of February 2020 the arrival of the first outbreak in Mexico, which eventually occurred between March 20 and 30. This estimation was robust with respect to small changes in epidemiological parameters at the other nodes.

Conclusions

The estimation of the time of arrival of the outbreak from its epicenter, allows for a time period to implement and strengthen preventive measures aimed at the general population as well as to strengthen hospital infrastructure and training of human resources. In the present study, this estimation was accurate, as observed from the real data of the beginning of the outbreak in Mexico City up to April 6, 2020.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Department of Mathematics and Mechanics, Instituto de Investigaciones en Matemáticas Aplicadas y en Sistemas (IIMAS), National University of Mexico (UNAM), Mexico City, Mexico.Graduate Program in Mathematical Sciences, UNAM, Mexico City, Mexico.Laboratory of Mathematics, Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Rouen Normandie, Saint-Etienne du Rouvray, France.Department of Epidemiology, Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez, Mexico City, Mexico. Division of Graduate Studies and Research, Facultad de Odontología, UNAM, Mexico City, Mexico.Programa Universitario de Investigación en Salud, UNAM, Mexico City, Mexico.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32584328

Citation

Cruz-Pacheco, Gustavo, et al. "DISPERSION of a NEW CORONAVIRUS SARS-COV-2 BY AIRLINES in 2020: TEMPORAL ESTIMATES of the OUTBREAK in MEXICO." Revista De Investigacion Clinica; Organo Del Hospital De Enfermedades De La Nutricion, vol. 72, no. 3, 2020, pp. 138-143.
Cruz-Pacheco G, Bustamante-Castañeda JF, Caputo JG, et al. DISPERSION OF A NEW CORONAVIRUS SARS-COV-2 BY AIRLINES IN 2020: TEMPORAL ESTIMATES OF THE OUTBREAK IN MEXICO. Rev Invest Clin. 2020;72(3):138-143.
Cruz-Pacheco, G., Bustamante-Castañeda, J. F., Caputo, J. G., Jiménez-Corona, M. E., & Ponce-de-León-Rosales, S. (2020). DISPERSION OF A NEW CORONAVIRUS SARS-COV-2 BY AIRLINES IN 2020: TEMPORAL ESTIMATES OF THE OUTBREAK IN MEXICO. Revista De Investigacion Clinica; Organo Del Hospital De Enfermedades De La Nutricion, 72(3), 138-143. https://doi.org/10.24875/RIC.20000113
Cruz-Pacheco G, et al. DISPERSION of a NEW CORONAVIRUS SARS-COV-2 BY AIRLINES in 2020: TEMPORAL ESTIMATES of the OUTBREAK in MEXICO. Rev Invest Clin. 2020;72(3):138-143. PubMed PMID: 32584328.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - DISPERSION OF A NEW CORONAVIRUS SARS-COV-2 BY AIRLINES IN 2020: TEMPORAL ESTIMATES OF THE OUTBREAK IN MEXICO. AU - Cruz-Pacheco,Gustavo, AU - Bustamante-Castañeda,José F, AU - Caputo,Jean G, AU - Jiménez-Corona,María E, AU - Ponce-de-León-Rosales,Samuel, PY - 2020/6/26/entrez PY - 2020/6/26/pubmed PY - 2020/7/4/medline KW - COVID-19 KW - Coronavirus KW - Outbreak KW - SARS-CoV-2 SP - 138 EP - 143 JF - Revista de investigacion clinica; organo del Hospital de Enfermedades de la Nutricion JO - Rev. Invest. Clin. VL - 72 IS - 3 N2 - Background: On January 23, 2020, China imposed a quarantine on the city of Wuhan to contain the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. Regardless of this measure, the new infection has spread to several countries around the world. Objective: We developed a method to study the dissemination of this infection by airline routes and provide estimations of the time of arrival of the outbreak to different cities. Methods: Using the Kermack and McKendrick model complemented with diffusion on a graph composed of nodes and edges, we made an analysis of COVID-19 dispersion to other cities by air travel. Results: The estimation was accurate in that it was possible to predict in the middle of February 2020 the arrival of the first outbreak in Mexico, which eventually occurred between March 20 and 30. This estimation was robust with respect to small changes in epidemiological parameters at the other nodes. Conclusions: The estimation of the time of arrival of the outbreak from its epicenter, allows for a time period to implement and strengthen preventive measures aimed at the general population as well as to strengthen hospital infrastructure and training of human resources. In the present study, this estimation was accurate, as observed from the real data of the beginning of the outbreak in Mexico City up to April 6, 2020. SN - 0034-8376 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32584328/DISPERSION_OF_A_NEW_CORONAVIRUS_SARS_COV_2_BY_AIRLINES_IN_2020:_TEMPORAL_ESTIMATES_OF_THE_OUTBREAK_IN_MEXICO_ L2 - http://www.diseaseinfosearch.org/result/6415 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -