Tags

Type your tag names separated by a space and hit enter

A prospect on the use of antiviral drugs to control local outbreaks of COVID-19.
BMC Med. 2020 06 25; 18(1):191.BM

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Current outbreaks of COVID-19 are threatening the health care systems of several countries around the world. Control measures, based on isolation, contact tracing, and quarantine, can decrease and delay the burden of the ongoing epidemic. With respect to the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic, recent modeling work shows that these interventions may be inadequate to control local outbreaks, even when perfect isolation is assumed. The effect of infectiousness prior to symptom onset combined with asymptomatic infectees further complicates the use of contact tracing. We aim to study whether antivirals, which decrease the viral load and reduce infectiousness, could be integrated into control measures in order to augment the feasibility of controlling the epidemic.

METHODS

Using a simulation-based model of viral transmission, we tested the efficacy of different intervention measures to control local COVID-19 outbreaks. For individuals that were identified through contact tracing, we evaluate two procedures: monitoring individuals for symptoms onset and testing of individuals. Additionally, we investigate the implementation of an antiviral compound combined with the contact tracing process.

RESULTS

For an infectious disease in which asymptomatic and presymptomatic infections are plausible, an intervention measure based on contact tracing performs better when combined with testing instead of monitoring, provided that the test is able to detect infections during the incubation period. Antiviral drugs, in combination with contact tracing, quarantine, and isolation, result in a significant decrease of the final size and the peak incidence, and increase the probability that the outbreak will fade out.

CONCLUSION

In all tested scenarios, the model highlights the benefits of control measures based on the testing of traced individuals. In addition, the administration of an antiviral drug, together with quarantine, isolation, and contact tracing, is shown to decrease the spread of the epidemic. This control measure could be an effective strategy to control local and re-emerging outbreaks of COVID-19.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Centre for Health Economic Research and Modelling Infectious Diseases, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium.Interuniversity Institute of Biostatistics and Statistical Bioinformatics, Data Science Institute, Hasselt University, Hasselt, Belgium. Artificial Intelligence Lab, Department of Computer Science, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium. Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Rega Institute for Medical Research, Clinical and Epidemiological Virology, KU Leuven - University of Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.Interuniversity Institute of Biostatistics and Statistical Bioinformatics, Data Science Institute, Hasselt University, Hasselt, Belgium.Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Rega Institute for Medical Research, Clinical and Epidemiological Virology, KU Leuven - University of Leuven, Leuven, Belgium. Center for Global Health and Tropical Medicine, Unidade de Microbiologia, Instituto de Higiene e Medicina Tropical, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal.Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Rega Institute for Medical Research, Clinical and Epidemiological Virology, KU Leuven - University of Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.Centre for Health Economic Research and Modelling Infectious Diseases, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium. niel.hens@uhasselt.be. Interuniversity Institute of Biostatistics and Statistical Bioinformatics, Data Science Institute, Hasselt University, Hasselt, Belgium. niel.hens@uhasselt.be.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32586336

Citation

Torneri, Andrea, et al. "A Prospect On the Use of Antiviral Drugs to Control Local Outbreaks of COVID-19." BMC Medicine, vol. 18, no. 1, 2020, p. 191.
Torneri A, Libin P, Vanderlocht J, et al. A prospect on the use of antiviral drugs to control local outbreaks of COVID-19. BMC Med. 2020;18(1):191.
Torneri, A., Libin, P., Vanderlocht, J., Vandamme, A. M., Neyts, J., & Hens, N. (2020). A prospect on the use of antiviral drugs to control local outbreaks of COVID-19. BMC Medicine, 18(1), 191. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-020-01636-4
Torneri A, et al. A Prospect On the Use of Antiviral Drugs to Control Local Outbreaks of COVID-19. BMC Med. 2020 06 25;18(1):191. PubMed PMID: 32586336.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - A prospect on the use of antiviral drugs to control local outbreaks of COVID-19. AU - Torneri,Andrea, AU - Libin,Pieter, AU - Vanderlocht,Joris, AU - Vandamme,Anne-Mieke, AU - Neyts,Johan, AU - Hens,Niel, Y1 - 2020/06/25/ PY - 2020/04/03/received PY - 2020/05/15/accepted PY - 2020/6/27/entrez PY - 2020/6/27/pubmed PY - 2020/7/16/medline SP - 191 EP - 191 JF - BMC medicine JO - BMC Med VL - 18 IS - 1 N2 - BACKGROUND: Current outbreaks of COVID-19 are threatening the health care systems of several countries around the world. Control measures, based on isolation, contact tracing, and quarantine, can decrease and delay the burden of the ongoing epidemic. With respect to the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic, recent modeling work shows that these interventions may be inadequate to control local outbreaks, even when perfect isolation is assumed. The effect of infectiousness prior to symptom onset combined with asymptomatic infectees further complicates the use of contact tracing. We aim to study whether antivirals, which decrease the viral load and reduce infectiousness, could be integrated into control measures in order to augment the feasibility of controlling the epidemic. METHODS: Using a simulation-based model of viral transmission, we tested the efficacy of different intervention measures to control local COVID-19 outbreaks. For individuals that were identified through contact tracing, we evaluate two procedures: monitoring individuals for symptoms onset and testing of individuals. Additionally, we investigate the implementation of an antiviral compound combined with the contact tracing process. RESULTS: For an infectious disease in which asymptomatic and presymptomatic infections are plausible, an intervention measure based on contact tracing performs better when combined with testing instead of monitoring, provided that the test is able to detect infections during the incubation period. Antiviral drugs, in combination with contact tracing, quarantine, and isolation, result in a significant decrease of the final size and the peak incidence, and increase the probability that the outbreak will fade out. CONCLUSION: In all tested scenarios, the model highlights the benefits of control measures based on the testing of traced individuals. In addition, the administration of an antiviral drug, together with quarantine, isolation, and contact tracing, is shown to decrease the spread of the epidemic. This control measure could be an effective strategy to control local and re-emerging outbreaks of COVID-19. SN - 1741-7015 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32586336/A_prospect_on_the_use_of_antiviral_drugs_to_control_local_outbreaks_of_COVID_19_ L2 - https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-020-01636-4 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -