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Transmission patterns of COVID-19 in the mainland of China and the efficacy of different control strategies: a data- and model-driven study.
Infect Dis Poverty. 2020 Jul 06; 9(1):83.ID

Abstract

BACKGROUND

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has seriously endangered the health and lives of Chinese people. In this study, we predicted the COVID-19 epidemic trend and estimated the efficacy of several intervention strategies in the mainland of China.

METHODS

According to the COVID-19 epidemic status, we constructed a compartmental model. Based on reported data from the National Health Commission of People's Republic of China during January 10-February 17, 2020, we estimated the model parameters. We then predicted the epidemic trend and transmission risk of COVID-19. Using a sensitivity analysis method, we estimated the efficacy of several intervention strategies.

RESULTS

The cumulative number of confirmed cases in the mainland of China will be 86 763 (95% CI: 86 067-87 460) on May 2, 2020. Up until March 15, 2020, the case fatality rate increased to 6.42% (95% CI: 6.16-6.68%). On February 23, 2020, the existing confirmed cases reached its peak, with 60 890 cases (95% CI: 60 350-61 431). On January 23, 2020, the effective reproduction number was 2.620 (95% CI: 2.567-2.676) and had dropped below 1.0 since February 5, 2020. Due to governmental intervention, the total number of confirmed cases was reduced by 99.85% on May 2, 2020. Had the isolation been relaxed from February 24, 2020, there might have been a second peak of infection. However, relaxing the isolation after March 16, 2020 greatly reduced the number of existing confirmed cases and deaths. The total number of confirmed cases and deaths would increase by 8.72 and 9.44%, respectively, due to a 1-day delayed diagnosis in non-isolated infected patients. Moreover, if the coverage of close contact tracing was increased to 100%, the cumulative number of confirmed cases would be decreased by 88.26% on May 2, 2020.

CONCLUSIONS

The quarantine measures adopted by the Chinese government since January 23, 2020 were necessary and effective. Postponing the relaxation of isolation, early diagnosis, patient isolation, broad close-contact tracing, and strict monitoring of infected persons could effectively control the COVID-19 epidemic. April 1, 2020 would be a reasonable date to lift quarantine in Hubei and Wuhan.

Authors+Show Affiliations

School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710049, China. jianzu@xjtu.edu.cn.School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710049, China.National & Local Joint Engineering Research Center of Biodiagnosis and Biotherapy, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710004, China. Key Laboratory of Environment and Genes Related to Diseases, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Ministry of Education of China, Xi'an, 710061, China.School of Public Health, Health Science Center, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710061, China.School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710049, China.National & Local Joint Engineering Research Center of Biodiagnosis and Biotherapy, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710004, China. jifanpu1979@163.com. Key Laboratory of Environment and Genes Related to Diseases, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Ministry of Education of China, Xi'an, 710061, China. jifanpu1979@163.com. Department of Infectious Diseases, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, 157 Xi Wu Road, Xi'an, 710004, Shaanxi Province, PR China. jifanpu1979@163.com.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32631426

Citation

Zu, Jian, et al. "Transmission Patterns of COVID-19 in the Mainland of China and the Efficacy of Different Control Strategies: a Data- and Model-driven Study." Infectious Diseases of Poverty, vol. 9, no. 1, 2020, p. 83.
Zu J, Li ML, Li ZF, et al. Transmission patterns of COVID-19 in the mainland of China and the efficacy of different control strategies: a data- and model-driven study. Infect Dis Poverty. 2020;9(1):83.
Zu, J., Li, M. L., Li, Z. F., Shen, M. W., Xiao, Y. N., & Ji, F. P. (2020). Transmission patterns of COVID-19 in the mainland of China and the efficacy of different control strategies: a data- and model-driven study. Infectious Diseases of Poverty, 9(1), 83. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40249-020-00709-z
Zu J, et al. Transmission Patterns of COVID-19 in the Mainland of China and the Efficacy of Different Control Strategies: a Data- and Model-driven Study. Infect Dis Poverty. 2020 Jul 6;9(1):83. PubMed PMID: 32631426.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Transmission patterns of COVID-19 in the mainland of China and the efficacy of different control strategies: a data- and model-driven study. AU - Zu,Jian, AU - Li,Miao-Lei, AU - Li,Zong-Fang, AU - Shen,Ming-Wang, AU - Xiao,Yan-Ni, AU - Ji,Fan-Pu, Y1 - 2020/07/06/ PY - 2020/03/10/received PY - 2020/06/29/accepted PY - 2020/7/8/entrez PY - 2020/7/8/pubmed PY - 2020/7/25/medline KW - COVID-19 KW - Effective reproduction number KW - Intervention strategy KW - Prevalence KW - SARS-CoV-2 KW - Transmission dynamics SP - 83 EP - 83 JF - Infectious diseases of poverty JO - Infect Dis Poverty VL - 9 IS - 1 N2 - BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has seriously endangered the health and lives of Chinese people. In this study, we predicted the COVID-19 epidemic trend and estimated the efficacy of several intervention strategies in the mainland of China. METHODS: According to the COVID-19 epidemic status, we constructed a compartmental model. Based on reported data from the National Health Commission of People's Republic of China during January 10-February 17, 2020, we estimated the model parameters. We then predicted the epidemic trend and transmission risk of COVID-19. Using a sensitivity analysis method, we estimated the efficacy of several intervention strategies. RESULTS: The cumulative number of confirmed cases in the mainland of China will be 86 763 (95% CI: 86 067-87 460) on May 2, 2020. Up until March 15, 2020, the case fatality rate increased to 6.42% (95% CI: 6.16-6.68%). On February 23, 2020, the existing confirmed cases reached its peak, with 60 890 cases (95% CI: 60 350-61 431). On January 23, 2020, the effective reproduction number was 2.620 (95% CI: 2.567-2.676) and had dropped below 1.0 since February 5, 2020. Due to governmental intervention, the total number of confirmed cases was reduced by 99.85% on May 2, 2020. Had the isolation been relaxed from February 24, 2020, there might have been a second peak of infection. However, relaxing the isolation after March 16, 2020 greatly reduced the number of existing confirmed cases and deaths. The total number of confirmed cases and deaths would increase by 8.72 and 9.44%, respectively, due to a 1-day delayed diagnosis in non-isolated infected patients. Moreover, if the coverage of close contact tracing was increased to 100%, the cumulative number of confirmed cases would be decreased by 88.26% on May 2, 2020. CONCLUSIONS: The quarantine measures adopted by the Chinese government since January 23, 2020 were necessary and effective. Postponing the relaxation of isolation, early diagnosis, patient isolation, broad close-contact tracing, and strict monitoring of infected persons could effectively control the COVID-19 epidemic. April 1, 2020 would be a reasonable date to lift quarantine in Hubei and Wuhan. SN - 2049-9957 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32631426/Transmission_patterns_of_COVID_19_in_the_mainland_of_China_and_the_efficacy_of_different_control_strategies:_a_data__and_model_driven_study_ L2 - https://idpjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40249-020-00709-z DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -