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Transmissibility of COVID-19 in 11 major cities in China and its association with temperature and humidity in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Chengdu.
Infect Dis Poverty. 2020 Jul 10; 9(1):87.ID

Abstract

BACKGROUND

The new coronavirus disease COVID-19 began in December 2019 and has spread rapidly by human-to-human transmission. This study evaluated the transmissibility of the infectious disease and analyzed its association with temperature and humidity to study the propagation pattern of COVID-19.

METHODS

In this study, we revised the reported data in Wuhan based on several assumptions to estimate the actual number of confirmed cases considering that perhaps not all cases could be detected and reported in the complex situation there. Then we used the equation derived from the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model to calculate R0 from January 24, 2020 to February 13, 2020 in 11 major cities in China for comparison. With the calculation results, we conducted correlation analysis and regression analysis between R0 and temperature and humidity for four major cities in China to see the association between the transmissibility of COVID-19 and the weather variables.

RESULTS

It was estimated that the cumulative number of confirmed cases had exceeded 45 000 by February 13, 2020 in Wuhan. The average R0 in Wuhan was 2.7, significantly higher than those in other cities ranging from 1.8 to 2.4. The inflection points in the cities outside Hubei Province were between January 30, 2020 and February 3, 2020, while there had not been an obvious downward trend of R0 in Wuhan. R0 negatively correlated with both temperature and humidity, which was significant at the 0.01 level.

CONCLUSIONS

The transmissibility of COVID-19 was strong and importance should be attached to the intervention of its transmission especially in Wuhan. According to the correlation between R0 and weather, the spread of disease will be suppressed as the weather warms.

Links

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Authors+Show Affiliations

Guo XJ
Institute of Public Safety Research, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, People's Republic of China.
Zhang H
Institute of Public Safety Research, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, People's Republic of China. zhhui@tsinghua.edu.cn.
Zeng YP
Institute of Public Safety Research, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, People's Republic of China.

MeSH

Basic Reproduction NumberBetacoronavirusCOVID-19ChinaCitiesCoronavirus InfectionsDisease Transmission, InfectiousHumansHumidityPandemicsPneumonia, ViralRegression AnalysisSARS-CoV-2Temperature

Pub Type(s)

Comparative Study
Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32650838

Citation

Guo, Xiao-Jing, et al. "Transmissibility of COVID-19 in 11 Major Cities in China and Its Association With Temperature and Humidity in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Chengdu." Infectious Diseases of Poverty, vol. 9, no. 1, 2020, p. 87.
Guo XJ, Zhang H, Zeng YP. Transmissibility of COVID-19 in 11 major cities in China and its association with temperature and humidity in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Chengdu. Infect Dis Poverty. 2020;9(1):87.
Guo, X. J., Zhang, H., & Zeng, Y. P. (2020). Transmissibility of COVID-19 in 11 major cities in China and its association with temperature and humidity in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Chengdu. Infectious Diseases of Poverty, 9(1), 87. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40249-020-00708-0
Guo XJ, Zhang H, Zeng YP. Transmissibility of COVID-19 in 11 Major Cities in China and Its Association With Temperature and Humidity in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Chengdu. Infect Dis Poverty. 2020 Jul 10;9(1):87. PubMed PMID: 32650838.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Transmissibility of COVID-19 in 11 major cities in China and its association with temperature and humidity in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Chengdu. AU - Guo,Xiao-Jing, AU - Zhang,Hui, AU - Zeng,Yi-Ping, Y1 - 2020/07/10/ PY - 2020/03/05/received PY - 2020/06/24/accepted PY - 2020/7/12/entrez PY - 2020/7/12/pubmed PY - 2020/7/25/medline KW - Basic reproduction number KW - COVID-19 KW - Humidity KW - Temperature KW - Transmissibility SP - 87 EP - 87 JF - Infectious diseases of poverty JO - Infect Dis Poverty VL - 9 IS - 1 N2 - BACKGROUND: The new coronavirus disease COVID-19 began in December 2019 and has spread rapidly by human-to-human transmission. This study evaluated the transmissibility of the infectious disease and analyzed its association with temperature and humidity to study the propagation pattern of COVID-19. METHODS: In this study, we revised the reported data in Wuhan based on several assumptions to estimate the actual number of confirmed cases considering that perhaps not all cases could be detected and reported in the complex situation there. Then we used the equation derived from the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model to calculate R0 from January 24, 2020 to February 13, 2020 in 11 major cities in China for comparison. With the calculation results, we conducted correlation analysis and regression analysis between R0 and temperature and humidity for four major cities in China to see the association between the transmissibility of COVID-19 and the weather variables. RESULTS: It was estimated that the cumulative number of confirmed cases had exceeded 45 000 by February 13, 2020 in Wuhan. The average R0 in Wuhan was 2.7, significantly higher than those in other cities ranging from 1.8 to 2.4. The inflection points in the cities outside Hubei Province were between January 30, 2020 and February 3, 2020, while there had not been an obvious downward trend of R0 in Wuhan. R0 negatively correlated with both temperature and humidity, which was significant at the 0.01 level. CONCLUSIONS: The transmissibility of COVID-19 was strong and importance should be attached to the intervention of its transmission especially in Wuhan. According to the correlation between R0 and weather, the spread of disease will be suppressed as the weather warms. SN - 2049-9957 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32650838/Transmissibility_of_COVID_19_in_11_major_cities_in_China_and_its_association_with_temperature_and_humidity_in_Beijing_Shanghai_Guangzhou_and_Chengdu_ DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -