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Optimal control strategies for the transmission risk of COVID-19.
J Biol Dyn. 2020 12; 14(1):590-607.JB

Abstract

In this paper, we apply optimal control theory to a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) transmission model given by a system of non-linear ordinary differential equations. Optimal control strategies are obtained by minimizing the number of exposed and infected population considering the cost of implementation. The existence of optimal controls and characterization is established using Pontryagin's Maximum Principle. An expression for the basic reproduction number is derived in terms of control variables. Then the sensitivity of basic reproduction number with respect to model parameters is also analysed. Numerical simulation results demonstrated good agreement with our analytical results. Finally, the findings of this study shows that comprehensive impacts of prevention, intensive medical care and surface disinfection strategies outperform in reducing the disease epidemic with optimum implementation cost.

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Publisher Full Text (DOI)

Authors+Show Affiliations

Lemecha Obsu L
Department of Applied Mathematics, Adama Science and Technology University, Adama, Ethiopia.
Feyissa Balcha S
Department of Applied Mathematics, Adama Science and Technology University, Adama, Ethiopia.

MeSH

Basic Reproduction NumberBetacoronavirusCOVID-19Computer SimulationCoronavirus InfectionsEpidemicsHumansInfection ControlMathematical ConceptsModels, BiologicalNonlinear DynamicsPandemicsPneumonia, ViralRisk FactorsSARS-CoV-2Systems Biology

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32696723

Citation

Lemecha Obsu, Legesse, and Shiferaw Feyissa Balcha. "Optimal Control Strategies for the Transmission Risk of COVID-19." Journal of Biological Dynamics, vol. 14, no. 1, 2020, pp. 590-607.
Lemecha Obsu L, Feyissa Balcha S. Optimal control strategies for the transmission risk of COVID-19. J Biol Dyn. 2020;14(1):590-607.
Lemecha Obsu, L., & Feyissa Balcha, S. (2020). Optimal control strategies for the transmission risk of COVID-19. Journal of Biological Dynamics, 14(1), 590-607. https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2020.1788182
Lemecha Obsu L, Feyissa Balcha S. Optimal Control Strategies for the Transmission Risk of COVID-19. J Biol Dyn. 2020;14(1):590-607. PubMed PMID: 32696723.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Optimal control strategies for the transmission risk of COVID-19. AU - Lemecha Obsu,Legesse, AU - Feyissa Balcha,Shiferaw, PY - 2020/7/23/entrez PY - 2020/7/23/pubmed PY - 2020/7/31/medline KW - COVID-19 KW - basic reproduction number KW - mathematical modelling KW - optimal control KW - sensitivity analysis SP - 590 EP - 607 JF - Journal of biological dynamics JO - J Biol Dyn VL - 14 IS - 1 N2 - In this paper, we apply optimal control theory to a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) transmission model given by a system of non-linear ordinary differential equations. Optimal control strategies are obtained by minimizing the number of exposed and infected population considering the cost of implementation. The existence of optimal controls and characterization is established using Pontryagin's Maximum Principle. An expression for the basic reproduction number is derived in terms of control variables. Then the sensitivity of basic reproduction number with respect to model parameters is also analysed. Numerical simulation results demonstrated good agreement with our analytical results. Finally, the findings of this study shows that comprehensive impacts of prevention, intensive medical care and surface disinfection strategies outperform in reducing the disease epidemic with optimum implementation cost. SN - 1751-3766 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32696723/Optimal_control_strategies_for_the_transmission_risk_of_COVID_19_ DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -