Temperature, Humidity and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19.
SSRN. 2020 Mar 09SSRN

Abstract

BACKGROUND

A significant number of infectious diseases display seasonal patterns in their incidence, including human coronaviruses. Betacoronaviruses such as MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV are not thought to be seasonal.

METHODS

We examined climate data from cities with significant community spread of COVID-19 using ERA-5 reanalysis, and compared to areas that are either not affected, or do not have significant community spread.

FINDINGS

To date, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, has established significant community spread in cities and regions along a narrow east west distribution roughly along the 30-50o N' corridor at consistently similar weather patterns consisting of average temperatures of 5-11oC, combined with low specific (3-6 g/kg) and absolute humidity (4-7 g/m3). There has been a lack of significant community establishment in expected locations that are based only on population proximity and extensive population interaction through travel.

INTERPRETATION

The distribution of significant community outbreaks along restricted latitude, temperature, and humidity are consistent with the behavior of a seasonal respiratory virus. Additionally, we have proposed a simplified model that shows a zone at increased risk for COVID-19 spread. Using weather modeling, it may be possible to predict the regions most likely to be at higher risk of significant community spread of COVID-19 in the upcoming weeks, allowing for concentration of public health efforts on surveillance and containment.

Links

PMC Free PDF

Authors+Show Affiliations

Sajadi MM

Institute of Human Virology.

Habibzadeh P

Shiraz University of Medical Sciences.

Vintzileos A

College Park.

Shokouhi S

Infectious Diseases and Tropical Medicine Research Center.

Miralles-Wilhelm F

College Park.

Amoroso A

Institute of Human Virology.

Pub Type(s)

Preprint

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32714105

Citation

Sajadi, Mohammad M., et al. "Temperature, Humidity and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19." SSRN, 2020, p. 3550308.

Sajadi MM, Habibzadeh P, Vintzileos A, et al. Temperature, Humidity and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19. SSRN. 2020.

Sajadi, M. M., Habibzadeh, P., Vintzileos, A., Shokouhi, S., Miralles-Wilhelm, F., & Amoroso, A. (2020). Temperature, Humidity and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19. SSRN, 3550308. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3550308

Sajadi MM, et al. Temperature, Humidity and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19. SSRN. 2020 Mar 9;3550308. PubMed PMID: 32714105.

* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case

TY - JOUR T1 - Temperature, Humidity and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19. AU - Sajadi,Mohammad M, AU - Habibzadeh,Parham, AU - Vintzileos,Augustin, AU - Shokouhi,Shervin, AU - Miralles-Wilhelm,Fernando, AU - Amoroso,Anthony, Y1 - 2020/03/09/ PY - 2020/03/08/received PY - 2020/04/06/revised PY - 2020/7/28/entrez PY - 2020/7/28/pubmed PY - 2020/7/28/medline KW - COVID-19 KW - SARS-CoV-2 KW - coronavirus KW - latitude KW - novel coronavirus KW - seasonality KW - temperature SP - 3550308 EP - 3550308 JF - SSRN JO - SSRN N2 - BACKGROUND: A significant number of infectious diseases display seasonal patterns in their incidence, including human coronaviruses. Betacoronaviruses such as MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV are not thought to be seasonal. METHODS: We examined climate data from cities with significant community spread of COVID-19 using ERA-5 reanalysis, and compared to areas that are either not affected, or do not have significant community spread. FINDINGS: To date, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, has established significant community spread in cities and regions along a narrow east west distribution roughly along the 30-50o N' corridor at consistently similar weather patterns consisting of average temperatures of 5-11oC, combined with low specific (3-6 g/kg) and absolute humidity (4-7 g/m3). There has been a lack of significant community establishment in expected locations that are based only on population proximity and extensive population interaction through travel. INTERPRETATION: The distribution of significant community outbreaks along restricted latitude, temperature, and humidity are consistent with the behavior of a seasonal respiratory virus. Additionally, we have proposed a simplified model that shows a zone at increased risk for COVID-19 spread. Using weather modeling, it may be possible to predict the regions most likely to be at higher risk of significant community spread of COVID-19 in the upcoming weeks, allowing for concentration of public health efforts on surveillance and containment. SN - 1556-5068 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32714105/Temperature_Humidity_and_Latitude_Analysis_to_Predict_Potential_Spread_and_Seasonality_for_COVID_19_ DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -

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Temperature, Humidity and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19.SSRN. 2020 Mar 09SSRN