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Transmission onset distribution of COVID-19.
Int J Infect Dis. 2020 Oct; 99:403-407.IJ

Abstract

OBJECTIVES

The distribution of the transmission onset of COVID-19 relative to the symptom onset is a key parameter for infection control. It is often not easy to study the transmission onset time, as it is difficult to know who infected whom exactly when.

METHODS

We inferred transmission onset time from 72 infector-infectee pairs in South Korea, either with known or inferred contact dates, utilizing the incubation period. Combining this data with known information of the infector's symptom onset, we could generate the transmission onset distribution of COVID-19, using Bayesian methods. Serial interval distribution could be automatically estimated from our data.

RESULTS

We estimated the median transmission onset to be 1.31 days (standard deviation, 2.64 days) after symptom onset with a peak at 0.72 days before symptom onset. The pre-symptomatic transmission proportion was 37% (95% credible interval [CI], 16-52%). The median incubation period was estimated to be 2.87 days (95% CI, 2.33-3.50 days), and the median serial interval to be 3.56 days (95% CI, 2.72-4.44 days).

CONCLUSIONS

Considering that the transmission onset distribution peaked with the symptom onset and the pre-symptomatic transmission proportion is substantial, the usual preventive measures might be too late to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

Links

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ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
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Authors+Show Affiliations

Chun JY
Department of Internal Medicine, National Cancer Center, Goyang, South Korea.
Baek G
Department of Statistics, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea.
Kim Y
Department of Statistics, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea. Electronic address: ydkim0903@gmail.com.

MeSH

Bayes TheoremBetacoronavirusCOVID-19Coronavirus InfectionsHumansMiddle AgedPandemicsPneumonia, ViralRepublic of KoreaSARS-CoV-2Time Factors

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32771633

Citation

Chun, June Young, et al. "Transmission Onset Distribution of COVID-19." International Journal of Infectious Diseases : IJID : Official Publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases, vol. 99, 2020, pp. 403-407.
Chun JY, Baek G, Kim Y. Transmission onset distribution of COVID-19. Int J Infect Dis. 2020;99:403-407.
Chun, J. Y., Baek, G., & Kim, Y. (2020). Transmission onset distribution of COVID-19. International Journal of Infectious Diseases : IJID : Official Publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases, 99, 403-407. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.07.075
Chun JY, Baek G, Kim Y. Transmission Onset Distribution of COVID-19. Int J Infect Dis. 2020;99:403-407. PubMed PMID: 32771633.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Transmission onset distribution of COVID-19. AU - Chun,June Young, AU - Baek,Gyuseung, AU - Kim,Yongdai, Y1 - 2020/08/06/ PY - 2020/06/15/received PY - 2020/07/02/revised PY - 2020/07/21/accepted PY - 2020/8/11/pubmed PY - 2020/10/29/medline PY - 2020/8/11/entrez KW - COVID-19 KW - Infectious disease incubation period KW - Infectious disease transmission KW - SARS-CoV-2 SP - 403 EP - 407 JF - International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases JO - Int J Infect Dis VL - 99 N2 - OBJECTIVES: The distribution of the transmission onset of COVID-19 relative to the symptom onset is a key parameter for infection control. It is often not easy to study the transmission onset time, as it is difficult to know who infected whom exactly when. METHODS: We inferred transmission onset time from 72 infector-infectee pairs in South Korea, either with known or inferred contact dates, utilizing the incubation period. Combining this data with known information of the infector's symptom onset, we could generate the transmission onset distribution of COVID-19, using Bayesian methods. Serial interval distribution could be automatically estimated from our data. RESULTS: We estimated the median transmission onset to be 1.31 days (standard deviation, 2.64 days) after symptom onset with a peak at 0.72 days before symptom onset. The pre-symptomatic transmission proportion was 37% (95% credible interval [CI], 16-52%). The median incubation period was estimated to be 2.87 days (95% CI, 2.33-3.50 days), and the median serial interval to be 3.56 days (95% CI, 2.72-4.44 days). CONCLUSIONS: Considering that the transmission onset distribution peaked with the symptom onset and the pre-symptomatic transmission proportion is substantial, the usual preventive measures might be too late to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission. SN - 1878-3511 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32771633/Transmission_onset_distribution_of_COVID_19_ L2 - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1201-9712(20)30612-3 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -