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Minimizing disease spread on a quarantined cruise ship: A model of COVID-19 with asymptomatic infections.
Math Biosci. 2020 11; 329:108442.MB

Abstract

On February 5 the Japanese government ordered the passengers and crew on the Diamond Princess to start a two week quarantine after a former passenger tested positive for COVID-19. During the quarantine the virus spread rapidly throughout the ship. By February 20, there were 651 cases. We model this quarantine with a SEIR model including asymptomatic infections with differentiated shipboard roles for crew and passengers. The study includes the derivation of the basic reproduction number and simulation studies showing the effect of quarantine with COVID-19 or influenza on the total infection numbers. We show that quarantine on a ship with COVID-19 will lead to significant disease spread if asymptomatic infections are not identified. However, if the majority of the crew and passengers are immune or vaccinated to COVID-19, then quarantine would slow the spread. We also show that a disease similar to influenza, even with a ship with a fully susceptible crew and passengers, could be contained through quarantine measures.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Howard University, Washington, DC, USA.Howard University, Washington, DC, USA.Howard University, Washington, DC, USA. Electronic address: kgurski@howard.edu.Howard University, Washington, DC, USA.Howard University, Washington, DC, USA.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32777227

Citation

Batista, Berlinda, et al. "Minimizing Disease Spread On a Quarantined Cruise Ship: a Model of COVID-19 With Asymptomatic Infections." Mathematical Biosciences, vol. 329, 2020, p. 108442.
Batista B, Dickenson D, Gurski K, et al. Minimizing disease spread on a quarantined cruise ship: A model of COVID-19 with asymptomatic infections. Math Biosci. 2020;329:108442.
Batista, B., Dickenson, D., Gurski, K., Kebe, M., & Rankin, N. (2020). Minimizing disease spread on a quarantined cruise ship: A model of COVID-19 with asymptomatic infections. Mathematical Biosciences, 329, 108442. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108442
Batista B, et al. Minimizing Disease Spread On a Quarantined Cruise Ship: a Model of COVID-19 With Asymptomatic Infections. Math Biosci. 2020;329:108442. PubMed PMID: 32777227.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Minimizing disease spread on a quarantined cruise ship: A model of COVID-19 with asymptomatic infections. AU - Batista,Berlinda, AU - Dickenson,Drew, AU - Gurski,Katharine, AU - Kebe,Malick, AU - Rankin,Naomi, Y1 - 2020/08/07/ PY - 2020/06/01/received PY - 2020/07/30/revised PY - 2020/08/02/accepted PY - 2020/8/11/pubmed PY - 2020/10/23/medline PY - 2020/8/11/entrez KW - Asymptomatic KW - COVID-19 KW - Cruise ship KW - Flu KW - Isolation KW - Quarantine KW - Reproduction number KW - SEIR KW - Sensitivity SP - 108442 EP - 108442 JF - Mathematical biosciences JO - Math Biosci VL - 329 N2 - On February 5 the Japanese government ordered the passengers and crew on the Diamond Princess to start a two week quarantine after a former passenger tested positive for COVID-19. During the quarantine the virus spread rapidly throughout the ship. By February 20, there were 651 cases. We model this quarantine with a SEIR model including asymptomatic infections with differentiated shipboard roles for crew and passengers. The study includes the derivation of the basic reproduction number and simulation studies showing the effect of quarantine with COVID-19 or influenza on the total infection numbers. We show that quarantine on a ship with COVID-19 will lead to significant disease spread if asymptomatic infections are not identified. However, if the majority of the crew and passengers are immune or vaccinated to COVID-19, then quarantine would slow the spread. We also show that a disease similar to influenza, even with a ship with a fully susceptible crew and passengers, could be contained through quarantine measures. SN - 1879-3134 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32777227/Minimizing_disease_spread_on_a_quarantined_cruise_ship:_A_model_of_COVID_19_with_asymptomatic_infections_ L2 - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0025-5564(20)30107-3 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -