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Scenarios for the Spread of COVID-19 in Manaus, Northern Brazil.
An Acad Bras Cienc. 2020; 92(4):e20200615.AA

Abstract

We use a compartmental model to project scenarios for the spread of COVID-19 in the city of Manaus, with different degrees of social distancing and isolation of infectious individuals. In a scenario without any containment measures, our projections point to more than 50,000 (simultaneously) infectious individuals before the end of April 2020. Only in a scenario with strict and extensive social distancing (lockdown), implemented and observed as of March 23rd, 2020, would this number be less than 50,000 in the first half of June. Furthermore, an increase in the number of tests or in the collective awareness among the population regarding the importance of strict distancing measures would have only had a significant impact if implemented before the end of March.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Departamento de Matemática, Universidade Federal do Amazonas, Manaus, AM, Brazil.Departamento de Matemática, Universidade Federal do Amazonas, Manaus, AM, Brazil.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32813857

Citation

Bitar, Sandro, and Wilhelm Alexander Steinmetz. "Scenarios for the Spread of COVID-19 in Manaus, Northern Brazil." Anais Da Academia Brasileira De Ciencias, vol. 92, no. 4, 2020, pp. e20200615.
Bitar S, Steinmetz WA. Scenarios for the Spread of COVID-19 in Manaus, Northern Brazil. An Acad Bras Cienc. 2020;92(4):e20200615.
Bitar, S., & Steinmetz, W. A. (2020). Scenarios for the Spread of COVID-19 in Manaus, Northern Brazil. Anais Da Academia Brasileira De Ciencias, 92(4), e20200615. https://doi.org/10.1590/0001-3765202020200615
Bitar S, Steinmetz WA. Scenarios for the Spread of COVID-19 in Manaus, Northern Brazil. An Acad Bras Cienc. 2020;92(4):e20200615. PubMed PMID: 32813857.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Scenarios for the Spread of COVID-19 in Manaus, Northern Brazil. AU - Bitar,Sandro, AU - Steinmetz,Wilhelm Alexander, Y1 - 2020/08/17/ PY - 2020/04/24/received PY - 2020/06/04/accepted PY - 2020/8/20/entrez PY - 2020/8/20/pubmed PY - 2020/8/25/medline SP - e20200615 EP - e20200615 JF - Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciencias JO - An Acad Bras Cienc VL - 92 IS - 4 N2 - We use a compartmental model to project scenarios for the spread of COVID-19 in the city of Manaus, with different degrees of social distancing and isolation of infectious individuals. In a scenario without any containment measures, our projections point to more than 50,000 (simultaneously) infectious individuals before the end of April 2020. Only in a scenario with strict and extensive social distancing (lockdown), implemented and observed as of March 23rd, 2020, would this number be less than 50,000 in the first half of June. Furthermore, an increase in the number of tests or in the collective awareness among the population regarding the importance of strict distancing measures would have only had a significant impact if implemented before the end of March. SN - 1678-2690 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32813857/Scenarios_for_the_Spread_of_COVID_19_in_Manaus_Northern_Brazil_ L2 - https://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0001-37652020000700901&lng=en&nrm=iso&tlng=en DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -