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Risk estimation and prediction of the transmission of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in the mainland of China excluding Hubei province.
Infect Dis Poverty. 2020 Aug 24; 9(1):116.ID

Abstract

BACKGROUND

In December 2019, an outbreak of coronavirus disease (later named as COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, China and, later on, detected in other parts of China. Our aim is to evaluate the effectiveness of the evolution of interventions and self-protection measures, estimate the risk of partial lifting control measures and predict the epidemic trend of the virus in the mainland of China excluding Hubei province based on the published data and a novel mathematical model.

METHODS

A novel COVID-19 transmission dynamic model incorporating the intervention measures implemented in China is proposed. COVID-19 daily data of the mainland of China excluding Hubei province, including the cumulative confirmed cases, the cumulative deaths, newly confirmed cases and the cumulative recovered cases between 20 January and 3 March 2020, were archived from the National Health Commission of China (NHCC). We parameterize the model by using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method and estimate the control reproduction number (Rc), as well as the effective daily reproduction ratio- Re(t), of the disease transmission in the mainland of China excluding Hubei province.

RESULTS

The estimation outcomes indicate that Rc is 3.36 (95% CI: 3.20-3.64) and Re(t) has dropped below 1 since 31 January 2020, which implies that the containment strategies implemented by the Chinese government in the mainland of China are indeed effective and magnificently suppressed COVID-19 transmission. Moreover, our results show that relieving personal protection too early may lead to a prolonged disease transmission period and more people would be infected, and may even cause a second wave of epidemic or outbreaks. By calculating the effective reproduction ratio, we prove that the contact rate should be kept at least less than 30% of the normal level by April, 2020.

CONCLUSIONS

To ensure the pandemic ending rapidly, it is necessary to maintain the current integrated restrict interventions and self-protection measures, including travel restriction, quarantine of entry, contact tracing followed by quarantine and isolation and reduction of contact, like wearing masks, keeping social distance, etc. People should be fully aware of the real-time epidemic situation and keep sufficient personal protection until April. If all the above conditions are met, the outbreak is expected to be ended by April in the mainland of China apart from Hubei province.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Jiangsu Key Lab for NSLSCS, School of Mathematical Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, China.Department of Mathematics, School of Science, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing, China.Hainan Medical University, Haikou, 571199, China. guojingyang@hotmail.com. Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Socinstrasse 57, Basel, CH-4002, Switzerland. guojingyang@hotmail.com. University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland. guojingyang@hotmail.com.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32831142

Citation

Wan, Hui, et al. "Risk Estimation and Prediction of the Transmission of Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) in the Mainland of China Excluding Hubei Province." Infectious Diseases of Poverty, vol. 9, no. 1, 2020, p. 116.
Wan H, Cui JA, Yang GJ. Risk estimation and prediction of the transmission of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in the mainland of China excluding Hubei province. Infect Dis Poverty. 2020;9(1):116.
Wan, H., Cui, J. A., & Yang, G. J. (2020). Risk estimation and prediction of the transmission of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in the mainland of China excluding Hubei province. Infectious Diseases of Poverty, 9(1), 116. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40249-020-00683-6
Wan H, Cui JA, Yang GJ. Risk Estimation and Prediction of the Transmission of Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) in the Mainland of China Excluding Hubei Province. Infect Dis Poverty. 2020 Aug 24;9(1):116. PubMed PMID: 32831142.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Risk estimation and prediction of the transmission of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in the mainland of China excluding Hubei province. AU - Wan,Hui, AU - Cui,Jing-An, AU - Yang,Guo-Jing, Y1 - 2020/08/24/ PY - 2020/03/02/received PY - 2020/05/28/accepted PY - 2020/8/25/entrez PY - 2020/8/25/pubmed PY - 2020/9/10/medline KW - COVID-19 KW - Contact tracing KW - Control reproduction number KW - Effective daily reproduction ratio KW - Intervention measure KW - Mathematical model KW - Risk estimation and prediction SP - 116 EP - 116 JF - Infectious diseases of poverty JO - Infect Dis Poverty VL - 9 IS - 1 N2 - BACKGROUND: In December 2019, an outbreak of coronavirus disease (later named as COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, China and, later on, detected in other parts of China. Our aim is to evaluate the effectiveness of the evolution of interventions and self-protection measures, estimate the risk of partial lifting control measures and predict the epidemic trend of the virus in the mainland of China excluding Hubei province based on the published data and a novel mathematical model. METHODS: A novel COVID-19 transmission dynamic model incorporating the intervention measures implemented in China is proposed. COVID-19 daily data of the mainland of China excluding Hubei province, including the cumulative confirmed cases, the cumulative deaths, newly confirmed cases and the cumulative recovered cases between 20 January and 3 March 2020, were archived from the National Health Commission of China (NHCC). We parameterize the model by using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method and estimate the control reproduction number (Rc), as well as the effective daily reproduction ratio- Re(t), of the disease transmission in the mainland of China excluding Hubei province. RESULTS: The estimation outcomes indicate that Rc is 3.36 (95% CI: 3.20-3.64) and Re(t) has dropped below 1 since 31 January 2020, which implies that the containment strategies implemented by the Chinese government in the mainland of China are indeed effective and magnificently suppressed COVID-19 transmission. Moreover, our results show that relieving personal protection too early may lead to a prolonged disease transmission period and more people would be infected, and may even cause a second wave of epidemic or outbreaks. By calculating the effective reproduction ratio, we prove that the contact rate should be kept at least less than 30% of the normal level by April, 2020. CONCLUSIONS: To ensure the pandemic ending rapidly, it is necessary to maintain the current integrated restrict interventions and self-protection measures, including travel restriction, quarantine of entry, contact tracing followed by quarantine and isolation and reduction of contact, like wearing masks, keeping social distance, etc. People should be fully aware of the real-time epidemic situation and keep sufficient personal protection until April. If all the above conditions are met, the outbreak is expected to be ended by April in the mainland of China apart from Hubei province. SN - 2049-9957 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32831142/Risk_estimation_and_prediction_of_the_transmission_of_coronavirus_disease_2019__COVID_19__in_the_mainland_of_China_excluding_Hubei_province_ L2 - https://idpjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40249-020-00683-6 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -