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Revealing regional disparities in the transmission potential of SARS-CoV-2 from interventions in Southeast Asia.
Proc Biol Sci. 2020 08 26; 287(1933):20201173.PB

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 is a new pathogen responsible for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. Southeast Asia was the first region to be affected outside China, and although COVID-19 cases have been reported in all countries of Southeast Asia, both the policies and epidemic trajectories differ substantially, potentially due to marked differences in social distancing measures that have been implemented by governments in the region. This paper studies the across-country relationships between social distancing and each population's response to policy, the subsequent effects of these responses to the transmissibility and epidemic trajectories of SARS-CoV-2. The analysis couples COVID-19 case counts with real-time mobility data across Southeast Asia to estimate the effects of host population response to social distancing policy and the subsequent effects on the transmissibility and epidemic trajectories of SARS-CoV-2. A novel inference strategy for the time-varying reproduction number is developed to allow explicit inference of the effects of social distancing on the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 through a regression structure. This framework replicates the observed epidemic trajectories across most Southeast Asian countries, provides estimates of the effects of social distancing on the transmissibility of disease and can simulate epidemic histories conditional on changes in the degree of intervention scenarios and compliance within Southeast Asia.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore.Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore.Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore. Department of Biological Sciences, Faculty of Science, National University of Singapore, Singapore.Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore. Department of Geography, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore.Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore.Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore.Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore.Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32842911

Citation

Lim, Jue Tao, et al. "Revealing Regional Disparities in the Transmission Potential of SARS-CoV-2 From Interventions in Southeast Asia." Proceedings. Biological Sciences, vol. 287, no. 1933, 2020, p. 20201173.
Lim JT, Dickens BSL, Choo ELW, et al. Revealing regional disparities in the transmission potential of SARS-CoV-2 from interventions in Southeast Asia. Proc Biol Sci. 2020;287(1933):20201173.
Lim, J. T., Dickens, B. S. L., Choo, E. L. W., Chew, L. Z. X., Koo, J. R. H., Tam, C., Park, M., & Cook, A. R. (2020). Revealing regional disparities in the transmission potential of SARS-CoV-2 from interventions in Southeast Asia. Proceedings. Biological Sciences, 287(1933), 20201173. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2020.1173
Lim JT, et al. Revealing Regional Disparities in the Transmission Potential of SARS-CoV-2 From Interventions in Southeast Asia. Proc Biol Sci. 2020 08 26;287(1933):20201173. PubMed PMID: 32842911.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Revealing regional disparities in the transmission potential of SARS-CoV-2 from interventions in Southeast Asia. AU - Lim,Jue Tao, AU - Dickens,Borame Sue Lee, AU - Choo,Esther Li Wen, AU - Chew,Lawrence Zheng Xiong, AU - Koo,Joel Rui Han, AU - Tam,Clarence, AU - Park,Minah, AU - Cook,Alex R, Y1 - 2020/08/26/ PY - 2020/8/27/entrez PY - 2020/8/28/pubmed PY - 2020/9/4/medline KW - COVID-19 KW - SARS-CoV-2 KW - time-varying reproduction number SP - 20201173 EP - 20201173 JF - Proceedings. Biological sciences JO - Proc Biol Sci VL - 287 IS - 1933 N2 - SARS-CoV-2 is a new pathogen responsible for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. Southeast Asia was the first region to be affected outside China, and although COVID-19 cases have been reported in all countries of Southeast Asia, both the policies and epidemic trajectories differ substantially, potentially due to marked differences in social distancing measures that have been implemented by governments in the region. This paper studies the across-country relationships between social distancing and each population's response to policy, the subsequent effects of these responses to the transmissibility and epidemic trajectories of SARS-CoV-2. The analysis couples COVID-19 case counts with real-time mobility data across Southeast Asia to estimate the effects of host population response to social distancing policy and the subsequent effects on the transmissibility and epidemic trajectories of SARS-CoV-2. A novel inference strategy for the time-varying reproduction number is developed to allow explicit inference of the effects of social distancing on the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 through a regression structure. This framework replicates the observed epidemic trajectories across most Southeast Asian countries, provides estimates of the effects of social distancing on the transmissibility of disease and can simulate epidemic histories conditional on changes in the degree of intervention scenarios and compliance within Southeast Asia. SN - 1471-2954 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32842911/Revealing_regional_disparities_in_the_transmission_potential_of_SARS_CoV_2_from_interventions_in_Southeast_Asia_ DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -