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Stochastic approach to study control strategies of Covid-19 pandemic in India.
Epidemiol Infect. 2020 08 28; 148:e200.EI

Abstract

India is one of the severely affected countries by the Covid-19 pandemic at present. Within the stochastic framework of the SEQIR model, we studied publicly available data of the Covid-19 patients in India and analysed possible impacts of quarantine and social distancing as controlling strategies for the pandemic. Our stochastic simulation results clearly show that proper quarantine and social distancing should be maintained right from the start of the pandemic and continued until its end for effective control. This calls for a more disciplined social lifestyle in the future. However, only social distancing and quarantine of the exposed population are found not sufficient enough to end the pandemic in India. Therefore, implementation of other stringent policies like complete lockdown as well as increased testing of susceptible populations is necessary. The demographic stochasticity, which is quite visible in the system dynamics, has a critical role in regulating and controlling the pandemic.

Authors+Show Affiliations

School of Computational & Integrative Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi110067, India.School of Computational & Integrative Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi110067, India.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32854801

Citation

Chanu, Athokpam Langlen, and R K Brojen Singh. "Stochastic Approach to Study Control Strategies of Covid-19 Pandemic in India." Epidemiology and Infection, vol. 148, 2020, pp. e200.
Chanu AL, Singh RKB. Stochastic approach to study control strategies of Covid-19 pandemic in India. Epidemiol Infect. 2020;148:e200.
Chanu, A. L., & Singh, R. K. B. (2020). Stochastic approach to study control strategies of Covid-19 pandemic in India. Epidemiology and Infection, 148, e200. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268820001946
Chanu AL, Singh RKB. Stochastic Approach to Study Control Strategies of Covid-19 Pandemic in India. Epidemiol Infect. 2020 08 28;148:e200. PubMed PMID: 32854801.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Stochastic approach to study control strategies of Covid-19 pandemic in India. AU - Chanu,Athokpam Langlen, AU - Singh,R K Brojen, Y1 - 2020/08/28/ PY - 2020/8/29/pubmed PY - 2020/9/25/medline PY - 2020/8/29/entrez KW - Covid-19 in India KW - quarantine KW - social distancing KW - stochastic modelling KW - stochastic simulation algorithm SP - e200 EP - e200 JF - Epidemiology and infection JO - Epidemiol Infect VL - 148 N2 - India is one of the severely affected countries by the Covid-19 pandemic at present. Within the stochastic framework of the SEQIR model, we studied publicly available data of the Covid-19 patients in India and analysed possible impacts of quarantine and social distancing as controlling strategies for the pandemic. Our stochastic simulation results clearly show that proper quarantine and social distancing should be maintained right from the start of the pandemic and continued until its end for effective control. This calls for a more disciplined social lifestyle in the future. However, only social distancing and quarantine of the exposed population are found not sufficient enough to end the pandemic in India. Therefore, implementation of other stringent policies like complete lockdown as well as increased testing of susceptible populations is necessary. The demographic stochasticity, which is quite visible in the system dynamics, has a critical role in regulating and controlling the pandemic. SN - 1469-4409 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32854801/Stochastic_approach_to_study_control_strategies_of_Covid_19_pandemic_in_India_ L2 - https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0950268820001946/type/journal_article DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -