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Are Impact Craters and Extinction Episodes Periodic? Implications for Planetary Science and Astrobiology.
Astrobiology. 2020 09; 20(9):1097-1108.A

Abstract

A review of the results of published spectral analyses of the ages of terrestrial impact craters (58 analyses) and biotic extinction events (35 analyses) reveals that about 60% of the crater trials support a statistically significant cycle averaging ∼29.7 million years (My), and about 67% of the trials of extinction episodes found a significant cycle averaging ∼26.5 My. Cross-wavelet transform analysis of the records of craters and extinctions over the past 260 My shows a mutual ∼26 My cycle and a common phase, suggesting a connection. About 50% of the best-dated impact craters seem to occur in approximately nine pairs or clusters in the past 260 My, apparently carrying the signal of an ∼26- to 30-My cycle. It has been suggested that periodic modulation of impacts and extinctions might be related to periodic comet storms that follow the solar system's oscillations in and out of the galactic mid-plane. Problems arise, however, with regard to the compatibility of such periodic pulses of comet flux with the makeup of the steady-state Near Earth Object (NEO) population, the estimated long-term NEO cratering rates on the terrestrial planets, and the predicted small contribution of Oort Cloud-derived comets to the terrestrial cratering record. Asteroid storms may be possible, but at present there are no accepted mechanisms for creating an ∼30-My period in asteroid breakup events and impacts. Astrobiological implications arise if extra-solar habitable planets suffer similar cyclical or episodic catastrophic bombardment episodes affecting long-term biotic evolution on those planets. Other planetary systems might commonly have comet reservoirs, but they are less likely to contain an asteroid belt in the proper orbital position. Further, frequent impacts of ∼1-km diameter comets and asteroids could affect the establishment and longevity of technological civilizations, including our own.

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Publisher Full Text (DOI)

Authors+Show Affiliations

Rampino MR
Department of Biology, New York University, New York, New York, USA. Department of Environmental Studies, New York University, New York, New York, USA. NASA, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York, USA.
Prokoph A
Speedstat, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.

MeSH

Evolution, ChemicalExobiologyExtraterrestrial EnvironmentPeriodicityPlanets

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Review

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32865423

Citation

Rampino, Michael R., and Andreas Prokoph. "Are Impact Craters and Extinction Episodes Periodic? Implications for Planetary Science and Astrobiology." Astrobiology, vol. 20, no. 9, 2020, pp. 1097-1108.
Rampino MR, Prokoph A. Are Impact Craters and Extinction Episodes Periodic? Implications for Planetary Science and Astrobiology. Astrobiology. 2020;20(9):1097-1108.
Rampino, M. R., & Prokoph, A. (2020). Are Impact Craters and Extinction Episodes Periodic? Implications for Planetary Science and Astrobiology. Astrobiology, 20(9), 1097-1108. https://doi.org/10.1089/ast.2019.2043
Rampino MR, Prokoph A. Are Impact Craters and Extinction Episodes Periodic? Implications for Planetary Science and Astrobiology. Astrobiology. 2020;20(9):1097-1108. PubMed PMID: 32865423.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Are Impact Craters and Extinction Episodes Periodic? Implications for Planetary Science and Astrobiology. AU - Rampino,Michael R, AU - Prokoph,Andreas, Y1 - 2020/08/28/ PY - 2020/9/1/pubmed PY - 2021/7/27/medline PY - 2020/9/1/entrez KW - 26-million-year cycles KW - Extraterrestrial impacts KW - Mass extinctions SP - 1097 EP - 1108 JF - Astrobiology JO - Astrobiology VL - 20 IS - 9 N2 - A review of the results of published spectral analyses of the ages of terrestrial impact craters (58 analyses) and biotic extinction events (35 analyses) reveals that about 60% of the crater trials support a statistically significant cycle averaging ∼29.7 million years (My), and about 67% of the trials of extinction episodes found a significant cycle averaging ∼26.5 My. Cross-wavelet transform analysis of the records of craters and extinctions over the past 260 My shows a mutual ∼26 My cycle and a common phase, suggesting a connection. About 50% of the best-dated impact craters seem to occur in approximately nine pairs or clusters in the past 260 My, apparently carrying the signal of an ∼26- to 30-My cycle. It has been suggested that periodic modulation of impacts and extinctions might be related to periodic comet storms that follow the solar system's oscillations in and out of the galactic mid-plane. Problems arise, however, with regard to the compatibility of such periodic pulses of comet flux with the makeup of the steady-state Near Earth Object (NEO) population, the estimated long-term NEO cratering rates on the terrestrial planets, and the predicted small contribution of Oort Cloud-derived comets to the terrestrial cratering record. Asteroid storms may be possible, but at present there are no accepted mechanisms for creating an ∼30-My period in asteroid breakup events and impacts. Astrobiological implications arise if extra-solar habitable planets suffer similar cyclical or episodic catastrophic bombardment episodes affecting long-term biotic evolution on those planets. Other planetary systems might commonly have comet reservoirs, but they are less likely to contain an asteroid belt in the proper orbital position. Further, frequent impacts of ∼1-km diameter comets and asteroids could affect the establishment and longevity of technological civilizations, including our own. SN - 1557-8070 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32865423/Are_Impact_Craters_and_Extinction_Episodes_Periodic_Implications_for_Planetary_Science_and_Astrobiology_ DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -