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Estimating the Effectiveness of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Control in Korea.
J Korean Med Sci. 2020 Sep 07; 35(35):e321.JK

Abstract

BACKGROUND

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has posed significant global public health challenges and created a substantial economic burden. Korea has experienced an extensive outbreak, which was linked to a religion-related super-spreading event. However, the implementation of various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including social distancing, spring semester postponing, and extensive testing and contact tracing controlled the epidemic. Herein, we estimated the effectiveness of each NPI using a simulation model.

METHODS

A compartment model with a susceptible-exposed-infectious-quarantined-hospitalized structure was employed. Using the Monte-Carlo-Markov-Chain algorithm with Gibbs' sampling method, we estimated the time-varying effective contact rate to calibrate the model with the reported daily new confirmed cases from February 12th to March 31st (7 weeks). Moreover, we conducted scenario analyses by adjusting the parameters to estimate the effectiveness of NPI.

RESULTS

Relaxed social distancing among adults would have increased the number of cases 27.4-fold until the end of March. Spring semester non-postponement would have increased the number of cases 1.7-fold among individuals aged 0-19, while lower quarantine and detection rates would have increased the number of cases 1.4-fold.

CONCLUSION

Among the three NPI measures, social distancing in adults showed the highest effectiveness. The substantial effect of social distancing should be considered when preparing for the 2nd wave of COVID-19.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Institute of Health and Environment, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea.Institute of Health and Environment, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea.Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea.Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea.Institute of Health and Environment, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea. Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea. persontime@hotmail.com.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32893522

Citation

Min, Kyung Duk, et al. "Estimating the Effectiveness of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions On COVID-19 Control in Korea." Journal of Korean Medical Science, vol. 35, no. 35, 2020, pp. e321.
Min KD, Kang H, Lee JY, et al. Estimating the Effectiveness of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Control in Korea. J Korean Med Sci. 2020;35(35):e321.
Min, K. D., Kang, H., Lee, J. Y., Jeon, S., & Cho, S. I. (2020). Estimating the Effectiveness of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Control in Korea. Journal of Korean Medical Science, 35(35), e321. https://doi.org/10.3346/jkms.2020.35.e321
Min KD, et al. Estimating the Effectiveness of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions On COVID-19 Control in Korea. J Korean Med Sci. 2020 Sep 7;35(35):e321. PubMed PMID: 32893522.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Estimating the Effectiveness of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Control in Korea. AU - Min,Kyung Duk, AU - Kang,Heewon, AU - Lee,Ju Yeun, AU - Jeon,Seonghee, AU - Cho,Sung Il, Y1 - 2020/09/07/ PY - 2020/07/17/received PY - 2020/08/19/accepted PY - 2020/9/7/entrez PY - 2020/9/8/pubmed PY - 2020/9/17/medline KW - COVID-19 KW - Gibbs' Sampling KW - Mathematical Model KW - Non-pharmaceutical Interventions SP - e321 EP - e321 JF - Journal of Korean medical science JO - J Korean Med Sci VL - 35 IS - 35 N2 - BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has posed significant global public health challenges and created a substantial economic burden. Korea has experienced an extensive outbreak, which was linked to a religion-related super-spreading event. However, the implementation of various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including social distancing, spring semester postponing, and extensive testing and contact tracing controlled the epidemic. Herein, we estimated the effectiveness of each NPI using a simulation model. METHODS: A compartment model with a susceptible-exposed-infectious-quarantined-hospitalized structure was employed. Using the Monte-Carlo-Markov-Chain algorithm with Gibbs' sampling method, we estimated the time-varying effective contact rate to calibrate the model with the reported daily new confirmed cases from February 12th to March 31st (7 weeks). Moreover, we conducted scenario analyses by adjusting the parameters to estimate the effectiveness of NPI. RESULTS: Relaxed social distancing among adults would have increased the number of cases 27.4-fold until the end of March. Spring semester non-postponement would have increased the number of cases 1.7-fold among individuals aged 0-19, while lower quarantine and detection rates would have increased the number of cases 1.4-fold. CONCLUSION: Among the three NPI measures, social distancing in adults showed the highest effectiveness. The substantial effect of social distancing should be considered when preparing for the 2nd wave of COVID-19. SN - 1598-6357 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32893522/Estimating_the_Effectiveness_of_Non_Pharmaceutical_Interventions_on_COVID_19_Control_in_Korea_ DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -