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Association of Mobile Phone Location Data Indications of Travel and Stay-at-Home Mandates With COVID-19 Infection Rates in the US.
JAMA Netw Open. 2020 Sep 01; 3(9):e2020485.JN

Abstract

IMPORTANCE

A stay-at-home social distancing mandate is a key nonpharmacological measure to reduce the transmission rate of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), but a high rate of adherence is needed.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association between the rate of human mobility changes and the rate of confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cross-sectional study used daily travel distance and home dwell time derived from millions of anonymous mobile phone location data from March 11 to April 10, 2020, provided by the Descartes Labs and SafeGraph to quantify the degree to which social distancing mandates were followed in the 50 US states and District of Columbia and the association of mobility changes with rates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases.

EXPOSURE

State-level stay-at-home orders during the COVID-19 pandemic.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The main outcome was the association of state-specific rates of COVID-19 confirmed cases with the change rates of median travel distance and median home dwell time of anonymous mobile phone users. The increase rates are measured by the exponent in curve fitting of the COVID-19 cumulative confirmed cases, while the mobility change (increase or decrease) rates were measured by the slope coefficient in curve fitting of median travel distance and median home dwell time for each state.

RESULTS

Data from more than 45 million anonymous mobile phone devices were analyzed. The correlation between the COVID-19 increase rate and travel distance decrease rate was -0.586 (95% CI, -0.742 to -0.370) and the correlation between COVID-19 increase rate and home dwell time increase rate was 0.526 (95% CI, 0.293 to 0.700). Increases in state-specific doubling time of total cases ranged from 1.0 to 6.9 days (median [interquartile range], 2.7 [2.3-3.3] days) before stay-at-home orders were enacted to 3.7 to 30.3 days (median [interquartile range], 6.0 [4.8-7.1] days) after stay-at-home social distancing orders were put in place, consistent with pandemic modeling results.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

These findings suggest that stay-at-home social distancing mandates, when they were followed by measurable mobility changes, were associated with reduction in COVID-19 spread. These results come at a particularly critical period when US states are beginning to relax social distancing policies and reopen their economies. These findings support the efficacy of social distancing and could help inform future implementation of social distancing policies should they need to be reinstated during later periods of COVID-19 reemergence.

Authors+Show Affiliations

GeoDS Lab, Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison.GeoDS Lab, Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison.GeoDS Lab, Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison.GeoDS Lab, Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison.GeoDS Lab, Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison.School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison.School of Medicine and Public Health, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison.School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison.Statistics and American Family Insurance Data Science Institute, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison.School of Medicine and Public Health, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32897373

Citation

Gao, Song, et al. "Association of Mobile Phone Location Data Indications of Travel and Stay-at-Home Mandates With COVID-19 Infection Rates in the US." JAMA Network Open, vol. 3, no. 9, 2020, pp. e2020485.
Gao S, Rao J, Kang Y, et al. Association of Mobile Phone Location Data Indications of Travel and Stay-at-Home Mandates With COVID-19 Infection Rates in the US. JAMA Netw Open. 2020;3(9):e2020485.
Gao, S., Rao, J., Kang, Y., Liang, Y., Kruse, J., Dopfer, D., Sethi, A. K., Mandujano Reyes, J. F., Yandell, B. S., & Patz, J. A. (2020). Association of Mobile Phone Location Data Indications of Travel and Stay-at-Home Mandates With COVID-19 Infection Rates in the US. JAMA Network Open, 3(9), e2020485. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.20485
Gao S, et al. Association of Mobile Phone Location Data Indications of Travel and Stay-at-Home Mandates With COVID-19 Infection Rates in the US. JAMA Netw Open. 2020 Sep 1;3(9):e2020485. PubMed PMID: 32897373.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Association of Mobile Phone Location Data Indications of Travel and Stay-at-Home Mandates With COVID-19 Infection Rates in the US. AU - Gao,Song, AU - Rao,Jinmeng, AU - Kang,Yuhao, AU - Liang,Yunlei, AU - Kruse,Jake, AU - Dopfer,Dorte, AU - Sethi,Ajay K, AU - Mandujano Reyes,Juan Francisco, AU - Yandell,Brian S, AU - Patz,Jonathan A, Y1 - 2020/09/01/ PY - 2020/9/8/entrez PY - 2020/9/9/pubmed PY - 2020/9/18/medline SP - e2020485 EP - e2020485 JF - JAMA network open JO - JAMA Netw Open VL - 3 IS - 9 N2 - IMPORTANCE: A stay-at-home social distancing mandate is a key nonpharmacological measure to reduce the transmission rate of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), but a high rate of adherence is needed. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between the rate of human mobility changes and the rate of confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cross-sectional study used daily travel distance and home dwell time derived from millions of anonymous mobile phone location data from March 11 to April 10, 2020, provided by the Descartes Labs and SafeGraph to quantify the degree to which social distancing mandates were followed in the 50 US states and District of Columbia and the association of mobility changes with rates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases. EXPOSURE: State-level stay-at-home orders during the COVID-19 pandemic. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The main outcome was the association of state-specific rates of COVID-19 confirmed cases with the change rates of median travel distance and median home dwell time of anonymous mobile phone users. The increase rates are measured by the exponent in curve fitting of the COVID-19 cumulative confirmed cases, while the mobility change (increase or decrease) rates were measured by the slope coefficient in curve fitting of median travel distance and median home dwell time for each state. RESULTS: Data from more than 45 million anonymous mobile phone devices were analyzed. The correlation between the COVID-19 increase rate and travel distance decrease rate was -0.586 (95% CI, -0.742 to -0.370) and the correlation between COVID-19 increase rate and home dwell time increase rate was 0.526 (95% CI, 0.293 to 0.700). Increases in state-specific doubling time of total cases ranged from 1.0 to 6.9 days (median [interquartile range], 2.7 [2.3-3.3] days) before stay-at-home orders were enacted to 3.7 to 30.3 days (median [interquartile range], 6.0 [4.8-7.1] days) after stay-at-home social distancing orders were put in place, consistent with pandemic modeling results. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: These findings suggest that stay-at-home social distancing mandates, when they were followed by measurable mobility changes, were associated with reduction in COVID-19 spread. These results come at a particularly critical period when US states are beginning to relax social distancing policies and reopen their economies. These findings support the efficacy of social distancing and could help inform future implementation of social distancing policies should they need to be reinstated during later periods of COVID-19 reemergence. SN - 2574-3805 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32897373/Association_of_Mobile_Phone_Location_Data_Indications_of_Travel_and_Stay_at_Home_Mandates_With_COVID_19_Infection_Rates_in_the_US_ DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -