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Early estimation of the risk factors for hospitalization and mortality by COVID-19 in Mexico.
PLoS One. 2020; 15(9):e0238905.Plos

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Due to a high prevalence of chronic non-degenerative diseases, it is suspected that COVID 19 poses a high risk of fatal complications for the Mexican population. The present study aims to estimate the risk factors for hospitalization and death in the Mexican population infected by SARS-CoV-2.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We used the publicly available data released by the Epidemiological Surveillance System for Viral Respiratory Diseases of the Mexican Ministry of Health (Secretaría de Salud, SSA). All records of positive SARS-CoV-2 cases were included. Two multiple logistic regression models were fitted to estimate the association between hospitalization and mortality, with other covariables. Data on 10,544 individuals (57.68% men), with mean age 46.47±15.62, were analyzed. Men were about 1.54 times more likely to be hospitalized than women (p<0.001, 95% C.I. 1.37-1.74); individuals aged 50-74 and ≥74 were more likely to be hospitalized than people aged 25-49 (OR 2.05, p<0.001, 95% C.I. 1.81-2.32, and OR 3.84, p<0.001, 95% C.I. 2.90-5.15, respectively). People with hypertension, obesity, and diabetes were more likely to be hospitalized than people without these comorbidities (p<0.01). Men had more risk of death in comparison to women (OR = 1.53, p<0.001, 95% C.I. 1.30-1.81) and individuals aged 50-74 and ≥75 were more likely to die than people aged 25-49 (OR 1.96, p<0.001, 95% C.I. 1.63-2.34, and OR 3.74, p<0.001, 95% C.I. 2.80-4.98, respectively). Hypertension, obesity, and diabetes presented in combination conveyed a higher risk of dying in comparison to not having these diseases (OR = 2.10; p<0.001, 95% C.I. 1.50-2.93). Hospitalization, intubation and pneumonia entail a higher risk of dying (OR 5.02, p<0.001, 95% C.I. 3.88-6.50; OR 4.27, p<0.001, 95% C.I. 3.26-5.59, and OR = 2.57; p<0.001, 95% C.I. 2.11-3.13, respectively). Our study's main limitation is the lack of information on mild (asymptomatic) or moderate cases of COVID-19.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study points out that in Mexico, where an important proportion of the population has two or more chronic conditions simultaneously, a high mortality rate is a serious risk for those infected by SARS-CoV-2.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Research Department, Instituto Nacional de Geriatría, Mexico City, Mexico.Center for Economic and Social Studies in Health, Hospital Infantil de México Federico Gómez, Mexico City, Mexico.Research Department, Instituto Nacional de Geriatría, Mexico City, Mexico.Research Department, Instituto Nacional de Geriatría, Mexico City, Mexico.Research Department, Instituto Nacional de Geriatría, Mexico City, Mexico.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32915872

Citation

Carrillo-Vega, María Fernanda, et al. "Early Estimation of the Risk Factors for Hospitalization and Mortality By COVID-19 in Mexico." PloS One, vol. 15, no. 9, 2020, pp. e0238905.
Carrillo-Vega MF, Salinas-Escudero G, García-Peña C, et al. Early estimation of the risk factors for hospitalization and mortality by COVID-19 in Mexico. PLoS One. 2020;15(9):e0238905.
Carrillo-Vega, M. F., Salinas-Escudero, G., García-Peña, C., Gutiérrez-Robledo, L. M., & Parra-Rodríguez, L. (2020). Early estimation of the risk factors for hospitalization and mortality by COVID-19 in Mexico. PloS One, 15(9), e0238905. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0238905
Carrillo-Vega MF, et al. Early Estimation of the Risk Factors for Hospitalization and Mortality By COVID-19 in Mexico. PLoS One. 2020;15(9):e0238905. PubMed PMID: 32915872.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Early estimation of the risk factors for hospitalization and mortality by COVID-19 in Mexico. AU - Carrillo-Vega,María Fernanda, AU - Salinas-Escudero,Guillermo, AU - García-Peña,Carmen, AU - Gutiérrez-Robledo,Luis Miguel, AU - Parra-Rodríguez,Lorena, Y1 - 2020/09/11/ PY - 2020/05/07/received PY - 2020/08/26/accepted PY - 2020/9/11/entrez PY - 2020/9/12/pubmed PY - 2020/9/29/medline SP - e0238905 EP - e0238905 JF - PloS one JO - PLoS One VL - 15 IS - 9 N2 - BACKGROUND: Due to a high prevalence of chronic non-degenerative diseases, it is suspected that COVID 19 poses a high risk of fatal complications for the Mexican population. The present study aims to estimate the risk factors for hospitalization and death in the Mexican population infected by SARS-CoV-2. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used the publicly available data released by the Epidemiological Surveillance System for Viral Respiratory Diseases of the Mexican Ministry of Health (Secretaría de Salud, SSA). All records of positive SARS-CoV-2 cases were included. Two multiple logistic regression models were fitted to estimate the association between hospitalization and mortality, with other covariables. Data on 10,544 individuals (57.68% men), with mean age 46.47±15.62, were analyzed. Men were about 1.54 times more likely to be hospitalized than women (p<0.001, 95% C.I. 1.37-1.74); individuals aged 50-74 and ≥74 were more likely to be hospitalized than people aged 25-49 (OR 2.05, p<0.001, 95% C.I. 1.81-2.32, and OR 3.84, p<0.001, 95% C.I. 2.90-5.15, respectively). People with hypertension, obesity, and diabetes were more likely to be hospitalized than people without these comorbidities (p<0.01). Men had more risk of death in comparison to women (OR = 1.53, p<0.001, 95% C.I. 1.30-1.81) and individuals aged 50-74 and ≥75 were more likely to die than people aged 25-49 (OR 1.96, p<0.001, 95% C.I. 1.63-2.34, and OR 3.74, p<0.001, 95% C.I. 2.80-4.98, respectively). Hypertension, obesity, and diabetes presented in combination conveyed a higher risk of dying in comparison to not having these diseases (OR = 2.10; p<0.001, 95% C.I. 1.50-2.93). Hospitalization, intubation and pneumonia entail a higher risk of dying (OR 5.02, p<0.001, 95% C.I. 3.88-6.50; OR 4.27, p<0.001, 95% C.I. 3.26-5.59, and OR = 2.57; p<0.001, 95% C.I. 2.11-3.13, respectively). Our study's main limitation is the lack of information on mild (asymptomatic) or moderate cases of COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: The present study points out that in Mexico, where an important proportion of the population has two or more chronic conditions simultaneously, a high mortality rate is a serious risk for those infected by SARS-CoV-2. SN - 1932-6203 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32915872/Early_estimation_of_the_risk_factors_for_hospitalization_and_mortality_by_COVID_19_in_Mexico_ L2 - https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0238905 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -