TY - JOUR T1 - Rapid Estimation of Excess Mortality during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Portugal -Beyond Reported Deaths. AU - Vieira,André, AU - Peixoto,Vasco Ricoca, AU - Aguiar,Pedro, AU - Abrantes,Alexandre, PY - 2020/05/14/received PY - 2020/06/20/accepted PY - 2020/9/21/entrez PY - 2020/9/22/pubmed PY - 2020/10/2/medline KW - Coronavirus KW - Portugal KW - disease outbreaks KW - mortality KW - pandemics SP - 209 EP - 213 JF - Journal of epidemiology and global health JO - J Epidemiol Glob Health VL - 10 IS - 3 N2 - BACKGROUND: One month after the first COVID-19 infection was recorded, Portugal counted 18,051 cases and 599 deaths from COVID-19. To understand the overall impact on mortality of the pandemic of COVID-19, we estimated the excess mortality registered in Portugal during the first month of the epidemic, from March 16 until April 14 using two different methods. METHODS: We compared the observed and expected daily deaths (historical average number from daily death registrations in the past 10 years) and used 2 standard deviations confidence limit for all-cause mortality by age and specific mortality cause, considering the last 6 years. An adapted Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was also tested to validate the estimated number of all-cause deaths during the study period. RESULTS: Between March 16 and April 14, there was an excess of 1255 all-cause deaths, 14% more than expected. The number of daily deaths often surpassed the 2 standard deviations confidence limit. The excess mortality occurred mostly in people aged 75+. Forty-nine percent (49%) of the estimated excess deaths were registered as due to COVID-19, the other 51% registered as other natural causes. CONCLUSION: Even though Portugal took early containment measures against COVID-19, and the population complied massively with those measures, there was significant excess mortality during the first month of the pandemic, mostly among people aged 75+. Only half of the excess mortality was registered as directly due do COVID-19. KEY POINTS: : An Excess Mortality (EM) of 1255 deaths were estimated 1 month after the first death classified by COVID-19, and it would probably be more if the government had not taken early action. : The age group where a significant increase in mortality was noted was above 75 years. : 51% of the EM was due to natural causes other than COVID-19. SN - 2210-6014 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32954711/Rapid_Estimation_of_Excess_Mortality_during_the_COVID_19_Pandemic_in_Portugal__Beyond_Reported_Deaths_ DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -