Is it time to talk about the end of social distancing? A joinpoint analysis of COVID-19 time series in Brazilian capitals.Rev Soc Bras Med Trop. 2020; 53:e20200469.RS
Monitoring coronavirus disease (COVID-19)-related infections and deaths in Brazil is controversial, with increasing pressure to ease social distance measures. However, no evidence of a sustained, widespread fall in cases exists.
We used segmented (joinpoint) regression analysis to describe the behavior of COVID-19 infections in Brazilian capital cities.
All capitals showed an exponential or a near-exponential increase in cases through May. A decline in reported cases was subsequently noted in 20 cities but was only significant for 8 (29.6%) and was followed in two by a renewed increase.
Caution is warranted when considering the relaxation of restrictions.