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Is it time to talk about the end of social distancing? A joinpoint analysis of COVID-19 time series in Brazilian capitals.
Rev Soc Bras Med Trop. 2020; 53:e20200469.RS

Abstract

INTRODUCTION

Monitoring coronavirus disease (COVID-19)-related infections and deaths in Brazil is controversial, with increasing pressure to ease social distance measures. However, no evidence of a sustained, widespread fall in cases exists.

METHODS

We used segmented (joinpoint) regression analysis to describe the behavior of COVID-19 infections in Brazilian capital cities.

RESULTS

All capitals showed an exponential or a near-exponential increase in cases through May. A decline in reported cases was subsequently noted in 20 cities but was only significant for 8 (29.6%) and was followed in two by a renewed increase.

CONCLUSIONS

Caution is warranted when considering the relaxation of restrictions.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Escola Politécnica de Saúde Joaquim Venâncio, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Instituto de Comunicação e Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Instituto de Comunicação e Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Instituto de Comunicação e Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, Departamento de Geografia, Vitória, ES, Brasil.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32965454

Citation

Guimarães, Raphael Mendonça, et al. "Is It Time to Talk About the End of Social Distancing? a Joinpoint Analysis of COVID-19 Time Series in Brazilian Capitals." Revista Da Sociedade Brasileira De Medicina Tropical, vol. 53, 2020, pp. e20200469.
Guimarães RM, Magalhães MAFM, Xavier DR, et al. Is it time to talk about the end of social distancing? A joinpoint analysis of COVID-19 time series in Brazilian capitals. Rev Soc Bras Med Trop. 2020;53:e20200469.
Guimarães, R. M., Magalhães, M. A. F. M., Xavier, D. R., Saldanha, R. F., & Catão, R. C. (2020). Is it time to talk about the end of social distancing? A joinpoint analysis of COVID-19 time series in Brazilian capitals. Revista Da Sociedade Brasileira De Medicina Tropical, 53, e20200469. https://doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0469-2020
Guimarães RM, et al. Is It Time to Talk About the End of Social Distancing? a Joinpoint Analysis of COVID-19 Time Series in Brazilian Capitals. Rev Soc Bras Med Trop. 2020;53:e20200469. PubMed PMID: 32965454.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Is it time to talk about the end of social distancing? A joinpoint analysis of COVID-19 time series in Brazilian capitals. AU - Guimarães,Raphael Mendonça, AU - Magalhães,Mônica de Avelar Figueiredo Mafra, AU - Xavier,Diego Ricardo, AU - Saldanha,Raphael de Freitas, AU - Catão,Rafael de Castro, Y1 - 2020/09/21/ PY - 2020/07/13/received PY - 2020/08/25/accepted PY - 2020/9/23/entrez PY - 2020/9/24/pubmed PY - 2020/9/29/medline SP - e20200469 EP - e20200469 JF - Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical JO - Rev Soc Bras Med Trop VL - 53 N2 - INTRODUCTION: Monitoring coronavirus disease (COVID-19)-related infections and deaths in Brazil is controversial, with increasing pressure to ease social distance measures. However, no evidence of a sustained, widespread fall in cases exists. METHODS: We used segmented (joinpoint) regression analysis to describe the behavior of COVID-19 infections in Brazilian capital cities. RESULTS: All capitals showed an exponential or a near-exponential increase in cases through May. A decline in reported cases was subsequently noted in 20 cities but was only significant for 8 (29.6%) and was followed in two by a renewed increase. CONCLUSIONS: Caution is warranted when considering the relaxation of restrictions. SN - 1678-9849 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32965454/Is_it_time_to_talk_about_the_end_of_social_distancing_A_joinpoint_analysis_of_COVID_19_time_series_in_Brazilian_capitals_ DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -