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Risk Factors for Hospitalization, Mechanical Ventilation, or Death Among 10 131 US Veterans With SARS-CoV-2 Infection.
JAMA Netw Open. 2020 09 01; 3(9):e2022310.JN

Abstract

Importance

Identifying independent risk factors for adverse outcomes in patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) can support prognostication, resource utilization, and treatment.

Objective

To identify excess risk and risk factors associated with hospitalization, mechanical ventilation, and mortality in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This longitudinal cohort study included 88 747 patients tested for SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid by polymerase chain reaction between Feburary 28 and May 14, 2020, and followed up through June 22, 2020, in the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) national health care system, including 10 131 patients (11.4%) who tested positive.

Exposures

Sociodemographic characteristics, comorbid conditions, symptoms, and laboratory test results.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Risk of hospitalization, mechanical ventilation, and death were estimated in time-to-event analyses using Cox proportional hazards models.

Results

The 10 131 veterans with SARS-CoV-2 were predominantly male (9221 [91.0%]), with diverse race/ethnicity (5022 [49.6%] White, 4215 [41.6%] Black, and 944 [9.3%] Hispanic) and a mean (SD) age of 63.6 (16.2) years. Compared with patients who tested negative for SARS-CoV-2, those who tested positive had higher rates of 30-day hospitalization (30.4% vs 29.3%; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.13; 95% CI, 1.08-1.13), mechanical ventilation (6.7% vs 1.7%; aHR, 4.15; 95% CI, 3.74-4.61), and death (10.8% vs 2.4%; aHR, 4.44; 95% CI, 4.07-4.83). Among patients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, characteristics significantly associated with mortality included older age (eg, ≥80 years vs <50 years: aHR, 60.80; 95% CI, 29.67-124.61), high regional COVID-19 disease burden (eg, ≥700 vs <130 deaths per 1 million residents: aHR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.02-1.45), higher Charlson comorbidity index score (eg, ≥5 vs 0: aHR, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.54-2.42), fever (aHR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.32-1.72), dyspnea (aHR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.53-2.07), and abnormalities in the certain blood tests, which exhibited dose-response associations with mortality, including aspartate aminotransferase (>89 U/L vs ≤25 U/L: aHR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.35-2.57), creatinine (>3.80 mg/dL vs 0.98 mg/dL: aHR, 3.79; 95% CI, 2.62-5.48), and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (>12.70 vs ≤2.71: aHR, 2.88; 95% CI, 2.12-3.91). With the exception of geographic region, the same covariates were independently associated with mechanical ventilation along with Black race (aHR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.25-1.85), male sex (aHR, 2.07; 95% CI, 1.30-3.32), diabetes (aHR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.18-1.67), and hypertension (aHR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.03-1.64). Notable characteristics that were not significantly associated with mortality in adjusted analyses included obesity (body mass index ≥35 vs 18.5-24.9: aHR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.77-1.21), Black race (aHR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.88-1.21), Hispanic ethnicity (aHR, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.79-1.35), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (aHR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.88-1.19), hypertension (aHR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.81-1.12), and smoking (eg, current vs never: aHR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.67-1.13). Most deaths in this cohort occurred in patients with age of 50 years or older (63.4%), male sex (12.3%), and Charlson Comorbidity Index score of at least 1 (11.1%).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this national cohort of VA patients, most SARS-CoV-2 deaths were associated with older age, male sex, and comorbidity burden. Many factors previously reported to be associated with mortality in smaller studies were not confirmed, such as obesity, Black race, Hispanic ethnicity, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hypertension, and smoking.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Division of Gastroenterology, Veterans Affairs Puget Sound Healthcare System and University of Washington, Seattle.Research and Development, Veterans Affairs Puget Sound Health Care System, Seattle, Washington.Research and Development, Veterans Affairs Puget Sound Health Care System, Seattle, Washington.Research and Development, Veterans Affairs Puget Sound Health Care System, Seattle, Washington.Division of Nephrology, Veterans Affairs Puget Sound Healthcare System and University of Washington, Seattle.Division of Allergy and Infectious Disease, Veterans Affairs Puget Sound Healthcare System and University of Washington, Seattle.Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care, Veterans Affairs Puget Sound Healthcare System and University of Washington, Seattle.Division of Allergy and Infectious Disease, Veterans Affairs Puget Sound Healthcare System and University of Washington, Seattle.Division of Gastroenterology, Veterans Affairs Puget Sound Healthcare System and University of Washington, Seattle.Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care, Veterans Affairs Puget Sound Healthcare System and University of Washington, Seattle.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32965502

Citation

Ioannou, George N., et al. "Risk Factors for Hospitalization, Mechanical Ventilation, or Death Among 10 131 US Veterans With SARS-CoV-2 Infection." JAMA Network Open, vol. 3, no. 9, 2020, pp. e2022310.
Ioannou GN, Locke E, Green P, et al. Risk Factors for Hospitalization, Mechanical Ventilation, or Death Among 10 131 US Veterans With SARS-CoV-2 Infection. JAMA Netw Open. 2020;3(9):e2022310.
Ioannou, G. N., Locke, E., Green, P., Berry, K., O'Hare, A. M., Shah, J. A., Crothers, K., Eastment, M. C., Dominitz, J. A., & Fan, V. S. (2020). Risk Factors for Hospitalization, Mechanical Ventilation, or Death Among 10 131 US Veterans With SARS-CoV-2 Infection. JAMA Network Open, 3(9), e2022310. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.22310
Ioannou GN, et al. Risk Factors for Hospitalization, Mechanical Ventilation, or Death Among 10 131 US Veterans With SARS-CoV-2 Infection. JAMA Netw Open. 2020 09 1;3(9):e2022310. PubMed PMID: 32965502.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Risk Factors for Hospitalization, Mechanical Ventilation, or Death Among 10 131 US Veterans With SARS-CoV-2 Infection. AU - Ioannou,George N, AU - Locke,Emily, AU - Green,Pamela, AU - Berry,Kristin, AU - O'Hare,Ann M, AU - Shah,Javeed A, AU - Crothers,Kristina, AU - Eastment,McKenna C, AU - Dominitz,Jason A, AU - Fan,Vincent S, Y1 - 2020/09/01/ PY - 2020/9/23/entrez PY - 2020/9/24/pubmed PY - 2020/10/8/medline SP - e2022310 EP - e2022310 JF - JAMA network open JO - JAMA Netw Open VL - 3 IS - 9 N2 - Importance: Identifying independent risk factors for adverse outcomes in patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) can support prognostication, resource utilization, and treatment. Objective: To identify excess risk and risk factors associated with hospitalization, mechanical ventilation, and mortality in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Design, Setting, and Participants: This longitudinal cohort study included 88 747 patients tested for SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid by polymerase chain reaction between Feburary 28 and May 14, 2020, and followed up through June 22, 2020, in the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) national health care system, including 10 131 patients (11.4%) who tested positive. Exposures: Sociodemographic characteristics, comorbid conditions, symptoms, and laboratory test results. Main Outcomes and Measures: Risk of hospitalization, mechanical ventilation, and death were estimated in time-to-event analyses using Cox proportional hazards models. Results: The 10 131 veterans with SARS-CoV-2 were predominantly male (9221 [91.0%]), with diverse race/ethnicity (5022 [49.6%] White, 4215 [41.6%] Black, and 944 [9.3%] Hispanic) and a mean (SD) age of 63.6 (16.2) years. Compared with patients who tested negative for SARS-CoV-2, those who tested positive had higher rates of 30-day hospitalization (30.4% vs 29.3%; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.13; 95% CI, 1.08-1.13), mechanical ventilation (6.7% vs 1.7%; aHR, 4.15; 95% CI, 3.74-4.61), and death (10.8% vs 2.4%; aHR, 4.44; 95% CI, 4.07-4.83). Among patients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, characteristics significantly associated with mortality included older age (eg, ≥80 years vs <50 years: aHR, 60.80; 95% CI, 29.67-124.61), high regional COVID-19 disease burden (eg, ≥700 vs <130 deaths per 1 million residents: aHR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.02-1.45), higher Charlson comorbidity index score (eg, ≥5 vs 0: aHR, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.54-2.42), fever (aHR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.32-1.72), dyspnea (aHR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.53-2.07), and abnormalities in the certain blood tests, which exhibited dose-response associations with mortality, including aspartate aminotransferase (>89 U/L vs ≤25 U/L: aHR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.35-2.57), creatinine (>3.80 mg/dL vs 0.98 mg/dL: aHR, 3.79; 95% CI, 2.62-5.48), and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (>12.70 vs ≤2.71: aHR, 2.88; 95% CI, 2.12-3.91). With the exception of geographic region, the same covariates were independently associated with mechanical ventilation along with Black race (aHR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.25-1.85), male sex (aHR, 2.07; 95% CI, 1.30-3.32), diabetes (aHR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.18-1.67), and hypertension (aHR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.03-1.64). Notable characteristics that were not significantly associated with mortality in adjusted analyses included obesity (body mass index ≥35 vs 18.5-24.9: aHR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.77-1.21), Black race (aHR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.88-1.21), Hispanic ethnicity (aHR, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.79-1.35), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (aHR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.88-1.19), hypertension (aHR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.81-1.12), and smoking (eg, current vs never: aHR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.67-1.13). Most deaths in this cohort occurred in patients with age of 50 years or older (63.4%), male sex (12.3%), and Charlson Comorbidity Index score of at least 1 (11.1%). Conclusions and Relevance: In this national cohort of VA patients, most SARS-CoV-2 deaths were associated with older age, male sex, and comorbidity burden. Many factors previously reported to be associated with mortality in smaller studies were not confirmed, such as obesity, Black race, Hispanic ethnicity, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hypertension, and smoking. SN - 2574-3805 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32965502/Risk_Factors_for_Hospitalization_Mechanical_Ventilation_or_Death_Among_10_131_US_Veterans_With_SARS_CoV_2_Infection_ L2 - https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.22310 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -