Tags

Type your tag names separated by a space and hit enter

Short-term and long-term health impacts of air pollution reductions from COVID-19 lockdowns in China and Europe: a modelling study.
Lancet Planet Health. 2020 10; 4(10):e474-e482.LP

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Exposure to poor air quality leads to increased premature mortality from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Among the far-reaching implications of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, a substantial improvement in air quality was observed worldwide after the lockdowns imposed by many countries. We aimed to assess the implications of different lockdown measures on air pollution levels in Europe and China, as well as the short-term and long-term health impact.

METHODS

For this modelling study, observations of fine particulate matter (PM2·5) concentrations from more than 2500 stations in Europe and China during 2016-20 were integrated with chemical transport model simulations to reconstruct PM2·5 fields at high spatiotemporal resolution. The health benefits, expressed as short-term and long-term avoided mortality from PM2·5 exposure associated with the interventions imposed to control the COVID-19 pandemic, were quantified on the basis of the latest epidemiological studies. To explore the long-term variability in air quality and associated premature mortality, we built different scenarios of economic recovery (immediate or gradual resumption of activities, a second outbreak in autumn, and permanent lockdown for the whole of 2020).

FINDINGS

The lockdown interventions led to a reduction in population-weighted PM2·5 of 14·5 μg m-3 across China (-29·7%) and 2·2 μg m-3 across Europe (-17·1%), with unprecedented reductions of 40 μg m-3 in bimonthly mean PM2·5 in the areas most affected by COVID-19 in China. In the short term, an estimated 24 200 (95% CI 22 380-26 010) premature deaths were averted throughout China between Feb 1 and March 31, and an estimated 2190 (1960-2420) deaths were averted in Europe between Feb 21 and May 17. We also estimated a positive number of long-term avoided premature fatalities due to reduced PM2·5 concentrations, ranging from 76 400 (95% CI 62 600-86 900) to 287 000 (233 700-328 300) for China, and from 13 600 (11 900-15 300) to 29 500 (25 800-33 300) for Europe, depending on the future scenarios of economic recovery adopted.

INTERPRETATION

These results indicate that lockdown interventions led to substantial reductions in PM2·5 concentrations in China and Europe. We estimated that tens of thousands of premature deaths from air pollution were avoided, although with significant differences observed in Europe and China. Our findings suggest that considerable improvements in air quality are achievable in both China and Europe when stringent emission control policies are adopted.

FUNDING

None.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Earth Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.Department of Applied and Computational Mathematics and Statistics, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.Climate Modeling Laboratory, Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (ENEA), Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Rome, Italy.Department of Philosophy, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.Department of Applied and Computational Mathematics and Statistics, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Earth Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA. Electronic address: pcrippa@nd.edu.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

Language

eng

PubMed ID

32976757

Citation

Giani, Paolo, et al. "Short-term and Long-term Health Impacts of Air Pollution Reductions From COVID-19 Lockdowns in China and Europe: a Modelling Study." The Lancet. Planetary Health, vol. 4, no. 10, 2020, pp. e474-e482.
Giani P, Castruccio S, Anav A, et al. Short-term and long-term health impacts of air pollution reductions from COVID-19 lockdowns in China and Europe: a modelling study. Lancet Planet Health. 2020;4(10):e474-e482.
Giani, P., Castruccio, S., Anav, A., Howard, D., Hu, W., & Crippa, P. (2020). Short-term and long-term health impacts of air pollution reductions from COVID-19 lockdowns in China and Europe: a modelling study. The Lancet. Planetary Health, 4(10), e474-e482. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30224-2
Giani P, et al. Short-term and Long-term Health Impacts of Air Pollution Reductions From COVID-19 Lockdowns in China and Europe: a Modelling Study. Lancet Planet Health. 2020;4(10):e474-e482. PubMed PMID: 32976757.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Short-term and long-term health impacts of air pollution reductions from COVID-19 lockdowns in China and Europe: a modelling study. AU - Giani,Paolo, AU - Castruccio,Stefano, AU - Anav,Alessandro, AU - Howard,Don, AU - Hu,Wenjing, AU - Crippa,Paola, Y1 - 2020/09/22/ PY - 2020/04/22/received PY - 2020/08/25/revised PY - 2020/08/26/accepted PY - 2020/9/26/pubmed PY - 2020/10/27/medline PY - 2020/9/25/entrez SP - e474 EP - e482 JF - The Lancet. Planetary health JO - Lancet Planet Health VL - 4 IS - 10 N2 - BACKGROUND: Exposure to poor air quality leads to increased premature mortality from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Among the far-reaching implications of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, a substantial improvement in air quality was observed worldwide after the lockdowns imposed by many countries. We aimed to assess the implications of different lockdown measures on air pollution levels in Europe and China, as well as the short-term and long-term health impact. METHODS: For this modelling study, observations of fine particulate matter (PM2·5) concentrations from more than 2500 stations in Europe and China during 2016-20 were integrated with chemical transport model simulations to reconstruct PM2·5 fields at high spatiotemporal resolution. The health benefits, expressed as short-term and long-term avoided mortality from PM2·5 exposure associated with the interventions imposed to control the COVID-19 pandemic, were quantified on the basis of the latest epidemiological studies. To explore the long-term variability in air quality and associated premature mortality, we built different scenarios of economic recovery (immediate or gradual resumption of activities, a second outbreak in autumn, and permanent lockdown for the whole of 2020). FINDINGS: The lockdown interventions led to a reduction in population-weighted PM2·5 of 14·5 μg m-3 across China (-29·7%) and 2·2 μg m-3 across Europe (-17·1%), with unprecedented reductions of 40 μg m-3 in bimonthly mean PM2·5 in the areas most affected by COVID-19 in China. In the short term, an estimated 24 200 (95% CI 22 380-26 010) premature deaths were averted throughout China between Feb 1 and March 31, and an estimated 2190 (1960-2420) deaths were averted in Europe between Feb 21 and May 17. We also estimated a positive number of long-term avoided premature fatalities due to reduced PM2·5 concentrations, ranging from 76 400 (95% CI 62 600-86 900) to 287 000 (233 700-328 300) for China, and from 13 600 (11 900-15 300) to 29 500 (25 800-33 300) for Europe, depending on the future scenarios of economic recovery adopted. INTERPRETATION: These results indicate that lockdown interventions led to substantial reductions in PM2·5 concentrations in China and Europe. We estimated that tens of thousands of premature deaths from air pollution were avoided, although with significant differences observed in Europe and China. Our findings suggest that considerable improvements in air quality are achievable in both China and Europe when stringent emission control policies are adopted. FUNDING: None. SN - 2542-5196 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/32976757/Short_term_and_long_term_health_impacts_of_air_pollution_reductions_from_COVID_19_lockdowns_in_China_and_Europe:_a_modelling_study_ L2 - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2542-5196(20)30224-2 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -